Buckeye State Blues

Across the river in the Buckeye State, the economy is starting to take its toll on Ohio Dems in the upcoming 2010 Senate race to replace outgoing Republican George Voinovich.  For the first time, both Dems in the race (Lt. Gov Lee Fisher and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner) find themselves trailing GOP businessman Rob Portman in a new Quinnipiac University poll.

The same poll showed 53 percent of Ohio voters disapproving of how President Obama has handled the economy, while 57 percent don't like his handling of health-care reform.

The poll, which demonstrates many voters have not made up their minds a year out from the election, has Mr. Portman leading Ms. Brunner 38 percent to 34 percent and Mr. Fisher 39 to 36 percent. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.9 percent, making both contests virtual ties.

(More after the jump...)

But before either match-up can become reality, all three face primary contests in May. In a tight contest, the poll has Mr. Fisher leading Ms. Brunner for the Democratic nomination 24 percent to 22 percent. Among Republicans, Mr. Portman leads Cleveland car dealership owner Tom Ganley 26 to 7 percent.

"Nobody knows who these guys are," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "So the movement toward Republicans is not because of what it says about Portman, but what it says about Democrats. It's no coincidence that we're seeing the same trend with [Gov. Ted] Strickland and Obama."

The reality is both Brunner and Fisher were up by pretty sizable margins just two months ago over Portman, and the big reason is jobs...or it should be.  Ohio's unemployment rate has actually dropped substantially from July (11.2%) to September (10.1%).

So what's going on?  Why are Dems taking a bath in the Buckeye State if unemployment in Ohio is going down?

The obvious choice then is health care.  Dems are losing the battle for health care in Ohio, plain and simple.  maybe it has something to do with Ohio Dems like Marcy Kaptur and Tim Ryan rolling over on the Stupak Amendment.

The question became moot because the amendment, the work of Democratic Rep. Bart Stupak of Michigan, passed, as did the broader health-care bill. But abortion-rights advocates and many Congressional liberals are outraged over the first vote, which creates a new challenge on the road to health reform.

The anti-abortion amendment got support from Kaptur, Tim Ryan and a handful of other Ohio Democrats, and from every House Republican. But it went too far for many other Democrats, because it would roll back a right for women.

It not only would bar the use of federal money for abortions, as existing law does. It also would make it impossible for new policies purchased through so-called insurance exchanges, or marketplaces set up through the health-care legislation, to pay for the procedure -- even if the woman seeking an abortion did not use a penny of federal money to buy her insurance. She would have to buy a separate rider or amendment that would specifically cover abortions, or pay out of pocket if she ever decided to have an abortion.

"Unacceptable," said Cecile Richards, president of the Planned Parenthood Federation of America. She said such abortion riders "do not exist because women do not plan to have unintended pregnancies or medically complicated pregnancies that require ending the pregnancy."

Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, who is running for the U.S. Senate, called the health bill amendment "an insult to Ohio women and an assault on the right to privacy."

And Ohio Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, also running for Senate, said the "discriminatory language" goes "far beyond existing law in restricting a woman's right to choose."

Both Fisher and Brunner have come out against the Stupak language, but the damage has been done. People in Ohio are pissed at the Dems. Passing a strong health care reform bill may be the only way to reverse the trend.

[UPDATE 2:04 PM]  Nate Silver's take on this week's poll numbers is worth reading.