Jobapalooza Preview

ADP's job loss numbers for November are in today at 169K, and that's worse than expected.

Private companies shed 169,000 jobs last month, fewer than the 195,000 jobs lost in October, suggesting some stabilization in the labor market as the economy emerges from recession, according to the ADP Employer Services report, jointly developed with Macroeconomic Advisers.

The October fall was originally reported at 203,000.

The median of estimates from 30 economists surveyed by Reuters was for a decline of 155,000 private-sector jobs last month.

A slowdown in job losses boosts the chances that job growth could appear in early 2010. But the labor market remains fragile, which could be a drag on consumer spending and curb the pace of an economic rebound.

"The losses are still substantial," Macroeconomic Advisers' chairman Joel Prakken said on a conference call. "But these losses are diminishing every month."

We're still losing 150-200K jobs a month, and while that's certainly better than 750K a month, it's still no recovery.  As I've said before, we need to be positive 200K each month before We can start talking about a jobs recovery, if not 300K a month.  I'm going to argue that without another jobs/stimulus bill, this number's going to creep back up in early 2010.