Throwing Out The Bums

The latest WSJ/NBC poll on Congress is not good news for either party, but it offers a direction for House Democrats on the health care bill:

On health care, 46 percent say it would be better to pass the president’s plan and make changes to the nation’s health care system, versus 45 percent who would prefer not to pass it and keep the system as it is now.

Thirty-six percent believe Obama’s plan is a good idea, versus 48 percent who think it’s a bad idea. That’s a slight (but statistically insignificant) change from January, when 31 percent said it was a good idea and 46 percent said it was a bad one. 

The poll also shows that Americans are divided over how their congressman or congresswoman should vote on the health care bill, which is expected to reach the House floor on Friday or Saturday of this week.

If their representative votes with Republicans to defeat the bill, 34 percent say they would be less likely to re-elect that member, 31 percent say they would be more likely to vote for the member, and 34 percent say it makes no difference. 

But if their member of Congress votes with Democrats to pass the legislation, 36 percent say they would be less likely to re-elect that member, 28 percent say they would be more likely to vote for the member, and 34 percent say it makes no difference. 

Translation: "There is no easy place right now in the health care debate," says McInturff, the GOP pollster.

Democratic respondents are overwhelmingly supportive of Obama’s health care plan -- they think it’s a good idea by a 64-16 percent margin, according to the poll.  Hart argues that such strong support from the base will ultimately make a "yes" vote an easier sell for Democrats who are on the fence. 

The key concern for these lawmakers isn’t losing some voters in the middle, he says. "It is alienating the base."

And that's the real bottom line:  Republicans and some independents are going to vote against House Dems anyway.  They will not gain any votes in November for voting against the health care reform bill.  No Republican voter will seriously say "Well that Democrat voted against Obamacare, I'll vote for them over the Republican in the race."  It's a ludicrous idea.  However, they stand to lose a healthy chunk of their base if they do oppose Obama.  Democrats overwhelmingly support the measure.  Killing it will depress the base even further.

It's real simple, House Dems.  Vote for health care reform, and you may lose in November.  Vote against it, and you will lose in November.  This poll makes that clear.

There are also some cautionary notes for Republicans as well:

Only 17 percent approve of how lawmakers on Capitol Hill are doing their jobs. Given the choice, half of respondents say they would vote to defeat every single member of Congress, including their own representative. 

Attention Republican incumbents:  This means you too.  And then there is this:

Looking ahead to the midterm elections in November, the poll shows Democrats with a three-point edge on the generic ballot: 45 percent say they prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress, while 42 percent want a GOP-controlled one.   

The GOP's still not doing as good as the Village and the Wingers say they are.

The point remains however:  Pass.  The Damn.  Bill.