Divide And Conquer Tactics

Ezra Klein has the right of this.  The time to launch into immigration reform and to update the DREAM Act is now.  It's a winner for Dems and a loser for the GOP.

As Ron Brownstein frequently points out, Obama won fewer than 40 percent of working-class whites in 2008. Congressional Democrats may well do even worse this year. But it's hard to believe they can do that much worse, or that they can do much to change their standing among this group. It's also not clear that immigration is a big motivator for these voters: The GOP tried to use it in 2006 against the Democrats, and the effort pretty much fell flat on its face.

Actually, it did worse than that: It drove Latino voters toward the Democrats. Obama won 67 percent of Hispanics in 2008 -- a much better showing than Democrat made in 2004. The fear in 2010, however, is that Hispanics won't show up to vote. If Democrats actually pursue immigration reform, their participation becomes likelier. And if Republicans -- or tea partyers, or conservative talk radio -- overreact to the prospect of immigration reform, their participation becomes virtually assured.

That last bit also suggests another reason Democrats might want to see immigration on the agenda: It's got the possibility to tear the Republican coalition apart. Beltway Republicans are very, very concerned about losing Latino voters, and so they try to be careful on the issue. Remember that the last effort at immigration reform came while Bush was in the White House.

But grass-roots conservatives tend to be very, very opposed to immigration reform. Remember that it was conservatives -- led by talk radio -- who killed the immigration reform effort. So what do Republican politicians do when their base goes into anti-immigration overdrive but their consultants beg them to tread carefully? It looks like Harry Reid, for one, would like to find out.

Want to prove that the tea party fanatics run the GOP now?  Reintroduce the DREAM Act.  Start with John McCain.  Watch how many Republicans turn completely on the Latino community at the behest of their most virulent fringe.  Watch as the small business wing and the social purity wing fight each other for dominance.  And keep explaining this is the same bill the Republicans themselves put forth in 2006.

You want to cut off the putative Republican wave in 2010?  You want to close the enthusiasm gap, unite the Dems, get out mid-term voters and knock the GOP on its ass?  You're being handed the answer.  Harry Reid says he has 56 votes for it now.

Start finding the other four.  I bet it happens.  Let's go, Dems.