Saturday, May 8, 2010

Oh You Mean THESE Nuclear Weapons...

Why, I have no idea what you are talking about, sir.
Israel's secretive nuclear activities may undergo unprecedented scrutiny next month, with a key meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency tentatively set to focus on the topic for the first time, according to documents shared Friday with The Associated Press.

 A copy of the restricted provisional agenda of the IAEA's June 7 board meeting lists Israeli nuclear capabilities as the eighth item - the first time that that the agency's decision-making body is being asked to deal with the issue in its 52 years of existence.

The agenda can still undergo changes in the month before the start of the meeting and a senior diplomat from a board member nation said the item, included on Arab request, could be struck if the U.S. and other Israeli allies mount strong opposition. He asked for anonymity for discussing a confidential matter.

Even if dropped from the final agenda, however, its inclusion in the May 7 draft made available to The AP is significant, reflecting the success of Islamic nations in giving concerns about Israel's unacknowledged nuclear arsenal increased prominence. 
Despite Israel's nuclear capabilities being the worst kept secret in the Middle East, expect to see howling and screaming from the usual suspects (and open calls of the AP being anti-Semitic, along with Obama, Hillary, the UN, the IAEA, and everyone else who might have anything to do with being interested in reading the report.)  Discussion of Israel's nukes means Israel actually has nukes and is a country with nukes that has not signed on to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, and admitting that means Israel is a "rogue nuclear state" by several definitions (along with India and Pakistan.)

Most importantly it means Israel is a nuclear power, and that changes the calculus of power in the entire theater.  Israel has had plausible deniability on this for a while now (despite this being a terribly badly secret.)  Admitting they have nukes means Israel is subject to the same inspection game that they've helped to force on to other countries, like Iraq and Iran, and that's going to make things real interesting.

Then again, if you wanted to force Israel's military hand and by proxy America's military hand, this is the prime way to do it.  Cui bono is the question to ask here, who benefits the most from something like this?

Watch the response on this carefully.  If the talk quickly turns to "Well now Israel has no choice but to attack Iran while it has the advantage" then you'll know.

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