Wednesday, May 19, 2010

Specifically Not Feelin' Randy

So Arcadian asks in the comments:
"The overwhelming evidence is that the Republicans will easily retake the House and come very close to retaking the Senate. Do you really think Jack Conway, Joe Sestak, or Bill Halter have any chance in November?"
As far as Jack Conway is concerned, the answer is I believe he has a very good chance of beating Rand Paul, and here's why:
The likely Rand Paul victory in the Kentucky Republican primary today should give Democrats a very good chance of winning in the fall because supporters of Trey Grayson, Paul's main opponent, really don't like him.

Some primaries play out in such a way that party loyalists view several of the candidates favorably and just choose the one they like best. That was very much the case with the recent Democratic contest in North Carolina. But in Kentucky we find that Paul's supporters hate Grayson, and that even more Grayson's supporters hate Paul.

53% of likely Grayson voters for today have an unfavorable opinion of Paul to only 23% with a positive opinion of him. More importantly though just 40% of Grayson voters say they'll support Paul in the general election if he wins the Republican nomination with 43% explicitly saying they will not.
That right there spells serious problems for Paul if that many Grayson supporters will not vote for Paul.  Going by the primary percentages, that means of the 35% of the GOP vote that Grayson got, only 40% of that plan to vote for Paul.  That means as much as 21% of the KY GOP may not vote for Paul at all this fall, and at least 15% will not.  They're going to stay home or worse, vote for Conway.  Depending on how that carries out, that could cripple Paul in November.

Conway could win easily.  There are a significant number of Republicans in Kentucky who want nothing to do with Rand Paul.  You're going to see something of a backlash by more moderate voters against Teapublican candidates like Paul.  They've been quiet up until now.  No longer.

Also, there's this
After winning Kentucky’s Republican primary Tuesday night, Bowling Green ophthalmologist Rand Paul refused to take the call of congratulations from opponent Trey Grayson, according to Grayson’s campaign manager Nate Hodson.

Hodson did not elaborate, except to say “it happened.”

“This is truly a classless act in politics,” said Marc Wilson, a Republican lobbyist and friend of Trey Grayson.
There's the unique factor in this race that Rand Paul is a complete asshole.  So while Sestak and especially Halter have uphill battles, so does Rand Paul.

.

4 comments:

Arcadian said...

1) Going to Public Policy Polling for any analyisis or polling info should be off limits on this blog for the same reasons you quote Rasmussen's "Obama Derangement Index." Shame on you, as usual. That's hack-worthy, even for your low "standards".

2) Taking out Rasmussen, PPP, and the equally biased Kos/Research 2000 polls, there are a total of no polls on Conway vs Paul as a matchup. This one's a clean slate with a whole lot of undecideds. In a case like that, you have to go with Paul's 24 point victory over Conway's squeaker. People love a winner.

3) Conway has his own baggage. Paul has an easy road to victory too because Conway is Kentucky's Attorney General, and he has not joined the states' lawsuit against Obamacare in a state that overwhelmingly despises Obamacare. He's dead in the general election.

Rand Paul wins by double digits, easily.

And you know it. Stop letting your bias blind you to the truth.

In Ur Blog Eatin Waffles said...

I've not read this post yet but I'm offended, I've left you hundreds of comments and you've never made a post about any of them.

90% of them were much better arguments than Arcadian's (No offense)

In Ur Blog Eatin Waffles said...

Now I've read so I can reply :-P
_____________________

To be fair the percentages don't mean anything. If Grayson had a large percentage of supporters he would have won, so saying 53% of his voters, that's over half of a group that's already in the minority.

Also you have to take into consideration that people may only vote if they are registered with a particular party. How many people are independents that haven't made up their mind? To be honest it's going to be very difficult to slow the Tea Parties momentum.

You're putting a positive spin on things for the Dem just like I said you would

Zandar said...

I went to college with Arcadian and have known him for years. He's a nice guy, for a lapsed liberal.

As far as your arguments go Arc, you say the race is a blank slate, but you're calling it for Paul by double digits?

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