Ten Years To Go

Give Iraqi Army chief Lt. Gen. Babakar Zebari some credit:  he's damn honest about the fact we will never leave Iraq in my lifetime.

Iraq's top army officer on Wednesday warned that a pullout of all US soldiers by the end of 2011 was premature, after eight of his troops were killed in a brazen attack that exposed shaky security here.

Lieutenant General Babakar Zebari's remarks, which run counter to those of his political leaders, coincide with the exit of thousands of American soldiers under a US declaration to end combat operations in Iraq at the end of August.

"At this point, the withdrawal (of US forces) is going well, because they are still here," Zebari told AFP on the sidelines of a defense ministry conference in Baghdad.

"But the problem will start after 2011 -- the politicians must find other ways to fill the void after 2011.

"If I were asked about the withdrawal, I would say to politicians: the US army must stay until the Iraqi army is fully ready in 2020."

Understand that the PR war against withdrawal from the hawks has already begun.  The current Israeli government in particular will not countenance us leaving from Iraq anytime soon.  The 2010 elections will play a big part in whether or not we leave, frankly.  If Republicans regain control of the House, they will do everything they can to keep us there, saying that if we leave we will threaten the security of the entire Middle East, not just Iraq's fledgling government.

A lot can change in 17 months in US politics.  Our withdrawal from Iraq will certainly be the political issue of 2011 among the GOP crew going after Obama's job and I'm betting most of them will be insisting we keep troop levels the same until 2012, when a presumptive GOP president can then continue to extend the war in Iraq for another 4 years.

Given the state of our economy however, I'm betting economic reality may barge into this scenario in an abrupt manner and soon.  We're simply not going to be able to afford to stay in Iraq much longer without sacrificing enough of the bread and circuses that the US population notices...and reacts.