Nate Reads The Tea Leaves

Nate Silver at Five Thirty Eight still has the GOP winning the House back by a small but significant margin, but the GOP runs into real trouble taking the Senate back depending on how tomorrow's primaries shake out in Delaware and New Hampshire.

The primaries in Delaware and New Hampshire have implications far beyond their borders. The forecast model that we ran last week gave Republicans a 26 percent chance of taking over the Senate – and enough states are tossups that they would be well within reach of doing so if the elections were held today. But this forecast was based on a weighted average likelihood of various candidates winning their primaries – for example, we had estimated that Ms. O’Donnell had a 25 percent chance of prevailing in Delaware, and Mr. Lamontange a 30 percent chance of doing so in New Hampshire – leaving Mr. Castle and Ms. Ayotte as the favorites.

If Ms. O’Donnell and Mr. Lamontange were both to win their primaries, however, the Republican chances of a Senate takeover would fall to just 16 percent, according to the model. Conversely, if Mr. Castle and Ms. Ayotte were to win, Republicans chances would rise to 30 percent. Thus, Republican prospects of claiming the Senate could be nearly halved if both the insurgent candidates were to prevail. They would still have a chance of doing so — but it might require them to expand the playing field further, like to West Virginia or Connecticut, where the Democratic candidates are clear favorites but not prohibitive ones – or to perform a quick makeover on a candidate like Ms. O’Donnell, who is unlikely to make a good first impression with moderate and independent voters.

The question is will the Hoffman Effect put the Senate out of reach for the GOP?   It may not matter too much in the end.  The GOP can still filibuster legislation with 41 votes, or it can do so with 47 or 48, the outcome to Obama's agenda is the same.  And if the GOP does take back the House, then from a legislative position, the paralyzing gridlock and endless investigations will preclude anything getting through as legislation anyway.

In the end, it may not matter much at all.  But it could.  Every vote counts.  The Tea Party insurgents definitely come up losers in the general, and we're going to see more and more of that, especially in the Senate this year.  How many remains to be seen.