"A fixed exchange regime, even if it is not a gold standard… That world just doesn't work. Because in that world, monetary policy by definition instead of being countercyclical becomes procyclical," Roubini told NetNet. "Suppose you have a fixed exchange rate regime...It just exacerbates the business cycle."
Roubini asks us to imagine two countries: One that's growing very quickly, and one that's growing very slowly.
The economy that is growing quickly would tend to "overheat"—an economic phenomenon characterized by accelerated growth, inflation, and the potential for asset bubbles. In the economy that is growing more slowly, there would be a tendency toward deflationary pressure and recession. So, instead of having a central bank with the capacity to successfully counter-balance these tendencies, an economy fixed exchange rate regime is to continue to reinforce the existing negative trends in the business cycle, Roubini argues.
Although he is best known as an economist who challenges conventional views, Roubini pretty well lines-up the consensus view of mainstream economics on the gold standard or fixed exchange rate regimes: "You have the opposite of what any optimal rule about monetary policy will tell you."
Aside from the issue of central banks insufficient current gold reserves, there are the issues that historically plagued gold standard economies. One of the most intractable of those issues was the impact that the gold standard had on traditional business cycles.
Historically speaking, Roubini says, during the days of the gold standard economies were constantly imperiled by spasmodic cycles: "When you had a traditional gold standard, boom and bust with severe swings in economic activity were the norm—really big ones. It was only once we moved to fiat money that central banks were able to smooth the business cycle, and make it less volatile, as we did during the financial economic crisis."
The best part? Wingers are lining up to say how Sarah Palin sticking her nose into something she clearly doesn't understand actually justifies their own clueless position on this, like she's a genuine polymath of a Renaissance policy wonk or something, you betcha.
The absurdity of this alone could power suns.
1 comment:
The only reason Palin thinks that it's important to return to the gold standard is that Glenn Beck told her that trading in your money for gold was the best way to protect it from socialism stormtroopers. Although, I have an incomplete suspicion that this could be a subtle long-con prank being played by Ron Paul on Sarah and Rand for shitting his Libertarian bed.
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