We're going to get trounced because the vast majority of people in the Democratic coalition are people who don't read political blogs all day and who watch CSI rather than Rachel Maddow. No one's given them a reason to feel hope, and no one's made a case they find persuasive for why they should remain patient -- not the administration, not the Democratic Party, and not us (our message doesn't even filter down to them indirectly, the way the right blogosphere's does to rank-and-file right-wingers, via Fox and talk radio). And we never laid the groundwork to make these people progressive Democrats, not just folks who happened to vote Democratic in 2006 and 2008. I think we just assumed they'd keep turning out, based on their demography and our expectation that they'd continue to loathe the GOP and admire Obama.
It doesn't work that way. The party and especially the White House needed to find a way to keep their hope alive over the past two bleak years; we needed to recognize the fact that they aren't us and therefore they don't instantly see what we see when we look at the right wing. They don't obsess over politics in general the way we do, so they don't grasp the very subtle arguments for why Obama's been at least a partial success.
I say this kind of thing all the time. I'm just saying it again because blaming people like ourselves for the enthusiasm gap is one more sign that we don't understand our own coalition, and thus one more reason we have such trouble preventing it from falling apart.
I'll go one step further.
If you voted for Obama two years ago and have since lost your job, home, or a loved one in Afghanistan or Iraq, why the hell should you get off your ass and pull the lever for anyone? I can certainly see that.
I've laid out the reasons why over the last two years. Now how do I compete with FOX News on that message?
Answer? I don't. When reality has a well known liberal bias, you win by simply creating a new reality. Obama is a Muslim. Obama raised your taxes. The stimulus cost jobs. Health care reform will destroy the country. Obama is the most hated President ever.
The reward for doing the right thing is to lose.
So our country goes, straight to hell. Hope the GOP can fix the economy, Foreclosuregate, too big to fail, currency wars with China and Europe, global warming, aftereffects of the Gulf oil disaster, Iran, Afghanistan, the budget, education, and everything else. When they don't, will voters remove them from office in two years?
Doubt it.
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