The Moose And Mr. Silver

Nate Silver takes a second, updated look at Sarah Palin's chances in 2012 and finds some tarnish on her banner compared to 12 months ago.  But his conclusions seem very solid that Palin is still a candidate to be respected in the primaries.

On balance, these factors look somewhat less favorable to Ms. Palin than they did a year ago. In particular, it should be alarming to her how quickly some figures in the Republican establishment have turned against her. It is probably not a coincidence that these attacks began to escalate shortly after this November’s elections, in which Republicans were perceived as having sacrificed several Senate seats, like in Delaware and Nevada, because of having nominated unelectable candidates.

Meanwhile — after an interim period in which she seemed to be playing the role of the happy warrior, endorsing and raising money for Republican candidates — Ms. Palin recently seems to have become less selective about the arguments that she is engaging in. Her choice to attack Ms. Obama’s anti-obesity initiatives, for instance, suggests that she is either not listening to advice or that her advisers are not highly competent. Instead, she should be erring on the side of turning the other cheek: one thing that has generally been true is that presidential candidates who project a sunnier, more optimistic disposition tend to outlast those that come across as angrier. This may be especially important for Ms. Palin, who is always a lightning-rod for criticism; she doesn’t need to instigate any conflicts that she isn’t already engaged in.

Still, Ms. Palin has some unique strengths, like her ability to use new media to attract the political world’s attention virtually at her whim. It remains conceivable, also, that the attacks that Ms. Palin will receive from members of the Republican establishment — and those which she will eventually begin to receive from other Republican presidential contenders — could be turned to her advantage if she manages them in the right way, considering the anti-establishment mood in some corners of the party.

In the near term, I would look toward two things. First, what is being said about Ms. Palin on conservative blogs, on conservative talk radio, and on Fox News? These reflect the middle ground between elite and popular opinion and may provide a leading indicator — perhaps more so than polls — about how much the elite’s criticisms of Ms. Palin, and their concerns about her electability, are penetrating into the general public.

Second, I would look toward whom Ms. Palin is hiring as her support staff. A presidential campaign is a huge endeavor, comparable to a medium-sized business. Perhaps, because of her facility in commanding attention, Ms. Palin requires less assistance than a typical candidate might. Perhaps, because she sometimes seems to have an impatience for details and has not run for president before, she requires more. But all presidential candidates need some help: those candidates, like the Republican Fred Thompson, who have become too enamored with the notion of running a “viral”, nontraditional campaign from the confines of their living rooms have usually failed miserably. Is she hiring good pollsters, media strategists, fundraisers, consultants, logisticians, and advertising gurus? If so, she may still be as likely as anyone to prevail from a large, but fairly weak, Republican field. If not, her campaign, if she decides to run one, is liable to be a bust.

That should sober you up this morning, I know it did for me.   I agree with Nate's assessment, adding that I don't think she has the discipline to listen to Nate's advice here.  If she's serious about running and winning in 2012, she's going to need to learn to listen to other people to direct her going forward.

It's painfully clear that Sarah Palin's ego won't allow that.  She has to be the center of attention, and she has been rewarded too many times by the Village in that way.  All she has to do to "win" the 24-hour news cycle right now is make a Facebook post.

However, she loses as much as she wins in the long run on this.  Her recent attacks on Michelle Obama's obesity initiative for kids is too much for most conservatives to handle.  Most importantly, it's a stark reminder that Palin has bad instincts as often as she does good ones.

If she hires the right people and learns to control her attacks, she's going to be dangerous.  I don't think she will be able to do either.  Just too much ego there.