How Much For The Little Girl?

Ezra Klein finally figures out what E.J. Dionne could have told you three weeks ago and what Steve M. expanded on:  John Boehner's game of "Bad Cop, Completely Insane Cop" means Republicans are going to get everything they wanted in budget negotiations and then some.

Back in February, Paul Ryan unveiled what was supposed to be the opening bid from the House Republicans: $32 billion in cuts for the rest of 2011. But the Tea Party demanded more and House leadership quickly caved, doubling their proposed cuts to more than $60 billion -- or almost $100 billion less than barack Obama’s 2011 budget request (quick note: different news stories present these numbers differently, as it depends on whether you use Obama’s budget request or 2010’s funding as a baseline. I’m using the difference from 2010 funding, which makes for lower sums). Now Democrats are offering as a compromise measure $30 billion in total cuts, or exactly what Ryan’s original proposal had called for. Pretty neat, huh?

And that’s not the Democrats’ final offer, either. Odds are good that the eventual compromise will see cuts somewhere between the $30 billion Republican leadership called for and the almost $70 billion the conservative wing of the House GOP demanded. “That’s not much of a compromise if we end up with what the House Republican leadership wanted in the first place,” observe Michael Ettlinger and Michael Linden. And they’re right. But the irony is that it’s entirely possible the press will report that Democrats “won” the negotiations, as Republican leadership is likely to have to lose a lot of conservative votes in the House to get any compromise, no matter how radical, through the chamber. That will make them look bad, and in the weird logic of Washington, make the Democrats look good. But if you just keep your eye on the policy, Republicans are moving towards a win far beyond anything the House leadership had initially imagined. Getting there required learning they had less control over their conservative wing that they’d hoped, but it also taught them that their inability to control their conservative wing gave them credibility in negotiations with Democrats and can lead to pretty remarkable policy wins, as no one doubts that House Republicans really will shut down the government or allow for a default.

In other words, all Orange Julius had to do to win was to let his Tea Party lunatics do what they always do:



Yes, Jake and Elwood in the restaurant acting like complete nutjobs until they get what they want is an extremely viable political strategy in 2011.  Dionne called this weeks ago, and as I said back then, it's working.

I thought for sure a shutdown was coming.  But the Democrats have so completely folded in sheer terror at the prospect of more Tea Party abuse that they are going to give OJ the whole ball of wax just to get them to go away.  And you can bet Boehner will simply repeat this "Well gosh I dunno what they are going to do" threat time and time again.

[UPDATE]  And right on cue, Dems are offering another $20 billion in social cuts, which the Republicnas will not accept and will continue to shut down the government again in two weeks.   Rinse, repeat.