I don't think Barack Obama has any advantages that compare to these. He's not going to have a good economy to run on. (Unemployment just before those '02 midterms was 5.7%.) You'll say he's running against people who've been proved to be demonstrably crazy and extreme, but (a) the polls show that voters blame congressional Democrats almost as much as they blame congressional Republicans and (b) voters had three shots at depriving demonstrably crazy, extreme Republicans of control of part or all of Congress during the Bill Clinton years -- in 1996, 1998, and 2000 -- and they never did it. (The closest they came was getting the Senate to 50-50 in the 2000 elections, but it was still under GOP control until the Jeffords switch.)
Low-information voters identify the government with the president; in addition, Republicans are usually very good at convincing voters that they're the outsider party, even when they actually run much of the government. (Reagan was a master at this; the boilerplate message is that Democrats control the media and the universities and "the culture" in general.) So I'm telling you that the vast majority of the congressional teabaggers are safe, and I'd predict that their tribe will actually increase.
The only way we win is getting turnout like 2008. That's it. Otherwise the nation belongs to the Tea Party. Will that happen again? I'm not honestly sure. Odds are very much against it, but I think Steve is underestimating just how mad Americans are at the Republicans right now.
Whether or not that helps the Democrats or depresses voters into apathy (which favors the GOP) I couldn't tell you. A good part of that depends on the nominee from the GOP side. Once the Obama team has a target, I think it's going to start increasingly going President Obama's way.
That leaves the question of how long his coattails are. Enough to take back the House? I'm not sure. But I have to think it's possible.
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