Getting Serious On Syria, Part 5

With bloody crackdowns by the al-Assad regime continuing and Russia and China both vetoing at UN Security Council vote on what to do about it, CNN asks around for a number of scenarios on how things could play out in Syria and comes up with a number of possibilities.

Here are what I personally think are the three most likely ones, in the order of possibility:

Al-Assad’s regime yields to a transitional coalitional government 
 
This is basically the Arab League’s plan, and - by extension - what the United Nations would prefer. Ideally, this is accomplished without any dragged-out civil war that might tempt outside powers to intervene militarily.  Consider it a Libya-lite.

Because of the International Criminal Court’s reach, al-Assad would probably end up in some gorgeous “dacha” outside Moscow. The distracted West would love this outcome, as would any rival of Iran (the Turks and Saudis), but given Syria’s religious divisions, this would likely end up being a fairly unstable waypoint to something worse.  Right now, al-Assad shows no signs of submitting, so the longer the current fighting goes on, the more likely we’re looking at some serious - and permanent - dissolution of Syria as a unitary state.

And yes, I agree that this still leaves Syria as a major problem down the road...in an election year here in the US.  But this scenario basically serves as a punt until 2013 after the US elections, which is why I think it's the most likely outcome.  Any UN Security Council action on Syria is going to become the proxy for President Obama's foreign policy going into November, and he will be ruthlessly attacked by the GOP no matter what he does.  This plan is what the US has been signaling since the start of the Syrian crackdowns, and the UN will now follow suit, including Russia.  Despite the veto, I foresee modified language that Russia and China can accept as the most likely eventual outcome.  It's a punt, and eventually Russia and China will take it as one and move on.

Al-Assad holds on as figurehead while a transitional government is negotiated
 
This would be more to Moscow’s liking. Vladimir Putin has drawn his “redline” on swift regime change but probably could stand some drawn-out version, so long as his fellow dictator wasn’t given the bum’s rush . . . to the International Criminal Court.

Putin is feeling pretty touchy right now about how far north the whole “spring” dynamic might extend, plus he desperately wants to hold onto Russia’s naval basing rights in Syria - as decrepit as those port facilities are.

But since these are mostly “nice to have” outcomes that speak to global perceptions of Russia’s superpower decline, it’s hard to imagine Putin going to the mat on this one, meaning al-Assad should keep his bags packed.

This second scenario may be the price for Putin's cooperation, plain and simple.  Putin may not push for more than this and likely he won't, but this is basically all the stuff in the first scenario, only Assad gets to "retire" somewhere afterwards.

Civil war is mercifully short, perhaps accelerated by a limited “Western” military intervention 
 
This truly would be the Libya-2 scenario, with NATO getting virtually pulled in by Turkey’s decision to expand its current sanctuary zones for refugees and opposition fighters into Syria proper. This creeping “no-something-zone” logically segues into Ankara openly supporting the Free Syrian Army in a game-changing bid to end the conflict on decisively Turkish terms. And you know what? Turkey’s NATO partners, being otherwise occupied with their own internal fiscal crises, might just silently go along with that.

Plus, this scenario has the added benefit of getting everyone off the Israel-Iran conflict.  I see this as less likely because of the elections, Republicans will simply scream nonsense that our NATO ally in Turkey is really under Islamist control and that they are dragging us into another deadly war, but the success of the Libya intervention really makes this more likely than letting Syria descend into mass bloodshed.

Personally I'm hoping for the first, planning for the second, and resigned to accept the third.  We'll see.  New tag:  This Is Syria's Business.