Friday, February 3, 2012

Something's Wrong, Something's Amiss

Gosh, I can't quite put my finger on what's bothering me about this analysis of Romney's performance in Florida from CNN's Juan Carlos Gomez here, but it's just not right.

How Romney won Florida's Latino vote

Huhwha?  Did I miss something?

As Mitt Romney dominated the Florida Republican primary Tuesday night, he also captured the bulk of the votes from Latinos in the state, with 54% of their ballots. But how did he pull that off?
His victory could be seen as somewhat surprising for a candidate with a tough stance on immigration, who promised that if he were president, he'd veto the Dream Act that would legalize young undocumented adults who came to the United States as children if they attend college, join the armed forces or meet other requirements.
But Romney's methodology for winning their votes reveals a more focused, calculated approach to securing the fastest-growing voter demographic in the state and the country, and could prove to be a hurdle for President Obama in the general election.

Oh, that's it.  Florida's Republican primary is closed, so the only Latino votes the Marquis de Mittens captured were in fact 54% of registered Republicans.  Please, somebody tell me how Mitt getting, say, 54% of the African-American vote in a closed GOP primary means he could prove to be a hurdle for President Obama in the general election.  I'm eagerly awaiting that explanation.

But it's the independents there who voted for him in 2008 -- and the 400,000 in Florida who list no party affiliation -- who are at real risk of being lured to the Republican side in 2012. They will be the prize in the November election, and where Obama -- who starts with a 60% lead among all Latinos in state polls -- may end up battling Romney over the growing Latino vote.

So a 60% lead among the total Latino voting population in the polls makes President Obama vulnerable to a battle with Mitt Romney among Latino voters in Florida.  Got it.  If we're expanding the definition of "battle" to include Wellington and the Prussians smooshing Napoleon all over the Belgian countryside at Waterloo, then Lopez is spot on.  Good call, CNN.

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