Breaking Not So Bad

University of Virginia political prognosticator Larry Sabato seems to be leaning towards a wash in the Senate this year, with the GOP picking up Montana and Missouri, but the Dems might be able to counter in Nevada.

Ah, the Senate. The battle for control fascinates us — and all election observers — because there are so many intriguing races and personalities. Yet, as we update our ratings today and move in a new direction on Congress’ upper chamber, it is worth stressing at the outset that no party will truly control the Senate come January 2013. There is no chance at all that Democrats or Republicans will hit the magic 60 seats required to break filibusters and thus run the Senate. Increasingly, it looks likely that the winning party will have a smaller majority than the Democrats do now (53 seats) — if there is a majority at all. The tiny margin for the winning party will enable the new Senate to do what Senates do best: a whole lot of nothing (discounting talk, of course).

So yes, it's entirely possible we could be looking at a 51-49 Senate or even 50-50 with the Vice President as the deciding vote.  That could make things...interesting.

Let’s assume that, at the dawn of the 113th Congress in 2013, all 67 sitting senators not up for reelection this year — 30 Democrats, 37 Republicans — return to serve next year (no departures for the Cabinet, the Court or the Great Beyond). Next, let’s also assume that the 16 races we currently favor Democrats to win go to the Blue column, and the nine races where Republicans are favored go to the Red column. (See our full chart below.) Note that we have long flipped Nebraska and North Dakota from Democratic control to Republican control; former Democratic Sen. Bob Kerrey’s return to Nebraska hasn’t moved us a bit. Note also, as we said above, we are assuming that Maine elects King, who in effect becomes an Independent Democrat akin to Connecticut’s Joe Lieberman or Vermont’s Bernie Sanders. Further, our analysis has Democrats holding seats that are actually or potentially competitive, such as Ohio, Michigan and Hawaii. Finally, we presume that Democrats don’t score surprising upsets in places like Arizona and Indiana.

With those assumptions in place, the Senate is tied exactly 46 to 46, with eight toss up races to decide whether Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) continues to lead the chamber, or whether Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) takes over. 

Those races are Montana, Massachusetts, Missouri, Nevada, Wisconsin, Virginia, Florida and New Mexico.  If Sabato's right, the GOP could pick up 2 seats, but the Dems would pick up a seat in Nevada.  They could win in MA too, leading to the wash theory, 53-47 as it is now.  Six of those 8 tossup seats are defended by Democrats however.   All 8 changing hands would give the GOP the +4 seats they'd need to get it outright, 51-49.

We'll see.  I think the GOP will come up a seat or two short.  But it's going to be damn close.