The Big GOP Primary Thread: Nor'easter

There was no surprise in Mitt Romney winning all five primaries in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic yesterday, but it was somewhat surprising to see him not do any better than he did.  Even though he was basically the only viable candidate left, anywhere from 33% to nearly 43% of GOP primary voters voted against him yesterday.   Newt got 27% of the vote in Delaware, and Ron Paul 25% of the vote in Rhode Island.

I'm not convinced that 100% of those non-Romney GOP voters are going to pick Romney over Obama.  A great many of them are, but some will stay home too.  A very small percentage may even vote for Obama, although I can't imagine it being more than a couple percent max.  Certainly there will be disillusioned Obama voters who will stay home or cast their vote for Romney too.  I'm not sure how many of each will be out there, but Romney certainly doesn't have an advantage over the President in that respect if he can't break 67% in a one man race.

On the other hand, last night was the end of Newt Gingrich's run whether or not he wants to admit it.  He's done.  On the gripping hand, Gingrich did as good or better than Ron Paul and nobody's expecting Paul to get out the race either, so why should Newt quit?  The latest PPP poll in Texas shows that state's primary is still in play, with Romney having a 45%-35% lead over Gingrich in the state (Yeah, Mitt Romney may not even get 50% in Texas.  Think about THAT for a while.)

Combine that with news that Ron Paul has managed to secure delegates in Iowa and Minnesota and this coronation isn't going quite as smoothly as Mitt would like.

Meanwhile, on the Dem side of things, two Blue Dogs went down in flames in Pennsylvania, primaried out due to redistricting.  Rep. Tim Holden voted against the PPACA and got shown the door as his district went far more blue, losing by 16 points to Matt Cartwright, who ran, shockingly, as a liberal and won.  Holden was expected to be redistricted out but the margin of victory was pretty telling.

But the real story was Rep. Jason Altmire's 2 point loss to Rep. Mark Critz, and the difference?  Organized labor came out big for Critz and gave him the win.  There's an important lesson there for Democrats if they're willing to listen.