Sunday, November 11, 2012

Republican Pollsters Know Why They Lost

Alex Burns reviews the political epitaph for GOP pollsters filled with apparent dopes who "didn't see it coming", who "didn't think the electorate would vote" for Obama or at all, and "can't figure out what happened."

Let me clear this up.  Republican pollsters knew exactly why they lost.

The crux of the party’s challenge in 2012, said Republican pollster David Winston, was figuring out whether the electorate would look more like the 2004 voting population, when Republicans and Democrats turned out in equal numbers, or the 2008 electorate, which was more Democratic than Republican by 7 points.

Winston questioned how rigorously some campaigns tested their assumptions about who would show up.

“The results fell within the 2004 result and the 2008 result, obviously closer to 2008,” said Winston, who advises the House GOP leaders — who fared well on Tuesday. “That was clearly how everybody had been describing what the potential range was. The question is, as people were assessing their individual campaigns, whether it be the presidential or down ballot for that, was how were they working through the potential scenarios as far as what could happen.”

One top GOP pollster expressed dismay at the ultimate composition of the electorate: “I had no expectation that Democratic advantage on party ID would be the same as it was in 2008. I thought there would be more Democrats than Republicans, but I didn’t think it would be equal to 2008."

Bull.  They knew it was over after the Democratic National Convention.  But unless the race was close, no more polling.  Hence the insanity that Romney had tied the race or even taken the lead after the first debate.  We had to have the horse race mentality so the pollsters would keep getting paid to poll.

This race was never close.  Keep that in mind that they told you it was anyway.

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