Selling Out Marco Rubio

TPM's Benjy Sarlin argues that Florida GOP Sen. Marco Rubio really is trying to honestly sell immigration reform to his colleagues as a way for the Republicans to move forward (and for Rubio to get major national cred toward the 2016 race as a result.)  The problem of course is two-fold:  Rubio's chief Senate GOP rival is Rand Paul, and the Boston bombings have given him and other Tea Party conservatives the excuse to hang Rubio and his plan out to dry.

Rubio really is a one-man conservative outreach program when it comes to this bill. His ties to the tea party base are so deep that reformers were constantly worried he’d abandon negotiations rather than risk an inevitable backlash by signing onto a compromise. Rubio made light of the dynamic at a press conference introducing the legislation on Thursday when he took the podium, said “Actually, I changed my mind,” and pretended to walk off.

It’s created tension at times with more progressive reformers, but Rubio’s general strategy has been to acknowledge conservative complaints about the bill even while he refuses to back off his support. After reform skeptics in the Senate complained the process was moving too fast, for example, he fought to make sure there were multiple hearings on the bill. He’s spent much of the week appearing on conservative talk radio shows, many of which are hosted by skeptics — even leading opponents — of reform. And his office launched a website devoted entirely to knocking down “myths” about immigration reform, including a false claim this week on conservative blogs that the bill would give free “amnesty phones” to undocumented immigrants.

“It’s tragic that a nation of immigrants remains divided on immigration,” Rubio said at the presser.

None of the other “Gang of 8” Republicans have particularly strong followings on the populist right, so Rubio is really the only option when it comes to this kind of outreach. He’ll face another big test this month containing the fallout from the Boston bombing, where he’s already trying to ease Republican concerns about the bill’s national security implications. 

The 2-ton elephant in the room is of course the fact that tea party Republicans don't want immigration reform, they want to leverage continuing fear and scapegoating of Latinos and other minority groups to increase the percentage of the white vote that the GOP gets at the expense of the Democrats.  The Boston bombings present the perfect opportunity for them to do just that, and to permanently damage Marco Rubio among GOP primary voters heading forward.

Nobody's more excited to play that card than Rand Paul, as I pointed out yesterday.  I predict more than ever that Republicans will use Boston as political cover to end immigration reform, and Marco Rubio will be left holding the bag.  It won't end his career probably, but the 2016 nominee for the GOP will be somebody who went on record against the plan.

Count on it.