Friday, September 4, 2015

Last Call For Rowan County Calculus

Lexington Herald-Leader political columnist Sam Youngman weighs in on the situation in Rowan County and how it will affect Kentucky's gubernatorial election in two months.

The longer Davis sits in a Carter County jail cell, the worse it is for Conway. Bevin is enjoying daily opportunities to motivate his base and present a clear, if at times misleading, message
Keep in mind that there are two other county clerks refusing to issue marriage licenses, and really it's anybody's guess how Davis eventually gets out of jail or what she will do when that happens. 
Regardless, this is not a story that will end in the next few days. 
Time is running out before Election Day, and the longer the saga endures, the harder it will be for Conway to get voters to focus on state issues — jobs, education, pensions — and his opponent's flaws. 
The bottom line is that we don't know how this will impact the fall elections. 
It could be the first ripple in the water that becomes a wave that wipes out the entire Democratic slate. Or it could marginalize Bevin and make Conway look more palatable to the broader electorate. 
It has been a quiet race so far, and the general consensus is that very few Kentuckians have been paying attention. 
But given the attention this episode is generating, it seems like a safe bet that voters will be tuned in from here on out.

Youngman's take is pretty much in line with my own opinions here.  It's is a safe bet to say that yes, as long as this election remains about "Barack Obama persecuting the good white Christian people" of Rowan County, Matt Bevin is going to be the commonwealth's next governor by double digits.

On the other hand, Bevin really, really, really tends to overplay his hand and he clearly doesn't know when to shut up while being ahead.

But if Huckabee, Paul, etc. show up and make constant news, it's only going to be helping Matt Bevin.

That means Jack Conway had better work damn hard to get this election back to being about what Matt Bevin will destroy if he's allowed to win, and fast.

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