Wednesday, August 10, 2016

Trump Cards, Con't

Democrats are licking their chops at the prospect of making gains in the House as well as the Senate thanks to Donald Trump, and I can't say I blame them.

Hillary Clinton is trouncing Donald Trump in several swing House districts, Democratic Party officials say in a new memo obtained by POLITICO that touts the party's down-ballot prospects in November but does not predict they'll capture the chamber. 
Clinton is posting double-digit leads in several vulnerable Republican districts including Rep. Bob Dold in Illinois, Florida Rep. Carlos Curbelo, California freshman Rep. Steve Knight, Rep. Mike Coffman in Colorado and Rep. Erik Paulsen in Minnesota, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee memo states.

“Donald Trump’s likely defeat in many swing districts will be a devastating anchor that drags down House Republicans all across the country,” wrote DCCC Executive Director Kelly Ward. 
The memo, which comes 90 days out from the election, says that Democrats intend to hitch their House opponents to Trump at every turn and misstep, including his suggestion Tuesday that “Second Amendment people” might stop Clinton if she’s elected. 
“For the next 90 days, Donald Trump will undoubtedly continue these types of antics – just yesterday he suggested a violent attack against Hillary Clinton – and House Republicans will be forced to deal with the fallout. Their problems are only going to get worse,” Ward wrote.

That's undoubtedly true.  The question is how many people will be willing to split their ticket and vote against Trump while still backing House Republicans that have been a disaster for the country for six years and created the very toxic political stew that gave rise to Trump in the first place.

Cook Political Report has all those above districts listed as toss-ups, so if numbers are starting to come in where Clinton has a big lead it could be a sign that Democrats may be able to pick up multiple seats.

It's possible that the Dems could pick up the 23 seats they need to take control of the House, there are 16 total GOP districts that Cook has rated a toss-up, with the Democrats likely to pick up a net total of five more, and 11 additional leaning districts that could be in play in the kind of election that goes particularly badly for one party.

Still, that's going to require a "blue wave" to win, and the prospect of giving the House right back in 2018 midterms is almost assured.  However, the Dems have to start somewhere in taking back the House, so they might as well take what gains they can get out of of Trumpster Fire.

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