The Blue Wave Rises, Con't

Democrats are getting young voters registered ahead of the 2018 midterms, particularly 18 to 29-year-old voters who are very eager to vote for the first time in the era of Trump and the Parkland High shooting in Florida.

Young voters are flocking to register to vote in key battleground states in the wake of the February school shooting at a Parkland, Fla. high school, according to a new analysis from Democratic data firm TargetSmart.

The report, released exclusively to NBC News, shows that young voters between the ages of 18 and 29 years old make up an increasing share of those registering to vote in a handful of key states. 

Pennsylvania has seen the sharpest increase—61 percent of new voter registrations come from young voters, compared to 45 percent before the shooting. 

Virginia, Indiana and New York have all seen an increase of about 10 percentage points in the youth share of new voter registrants, while Arizona and Florida have seen gains of about 8 percent. All of these states are home to some key Senate or House races that will play a crucial role in deciding control of Congress. 

Other key battleground states—like California, North Carolina and Ohio—have seen more modest increases. And in West Virginia, home to one of the top Senate races on the map, the youth share of new registrants fell 11.5 percentage points. 

Democrats are boosted by the general upward trend—TargetSmart found a 2 percent uptick in the share of youth registrants across the country—considering young voters skew more liberal and are more supportive of enacting new gun control measures. The February shooting in Parkland, where 17 people were killed, has served as a motivator for activists looking to make the case to pass new measures like expanding background checks and restricting access to certain weapons.

Of course, the question then becomes will Millennials even bother to vote at all even after registering, and the evidence still points to at least 75% of them staying home.  In 2014, Millennial turnout was just 21.4% and they made up just 13% of people who voted, and Democrats were stomped in races across the country as a result.

The thing is if even 30% of voters born after 1980 actually showed up to the polls, Dems would take back the House and most likely the Senate as well.  But if the turnout model is 2014 again, where white men make up a third of Millennials who do actually vote, then we're in trouble.

It's not just how many people show up, it's who shows up too, and our voting system has long been biased against younger voters.