The Republicans mounting primary challenges to Donald Trump are not exactly the Never Trump movement’s top draft picks. With little hope of defeating an incumbent president dependably popular inside his party, country-club Republicans of the more-in-sorrow-than-anger variety—Jeff Flake, Larry Hogan, Ben Sasse—politely declined recruiting pleas from anti-Trump intellectuals, operatives, and donors. Hogan, the governor of Maryland, called it a “kamikaze mission.”
What remains is a trio of gadflies. Bill Weld, a patrician former Massachusetts governor and perma-candidate who was a running mate on the Libertarian ticket in 2016, was the first in the primary pool. He was followed last month by Joe Walsh, a loudmouth ex-radio host who briefly served in Congress and is best known for his racist tweets about Barack Obama. Former South Carolina governor and congressman Mark Sanford is also looking at the race, promising to focus his campaign on fiscal responsibility, a plank of pre-Trump Republican orthodoxy that’s been left by the wayside in the era of big tax cuts and trade wars.
They’ve each been dismissed by the pundit class and, predictably, the Republican establishment, which is doing everything in its power to box out even a whiff of a sedition. These Never Trumpers are scoffed at for two main reasons. First, it’s impossible to win the primary. And second, none of these Trump challengers have the kind of star power or message that might result in a serious weakening of Trump’s standing among Republicans. The first point is not in question: Trump’s approval rating among Republicans is anywhere from 79 to 88%, depending on the poll, and the last Republican president to lose a primary was Chester Arthur in 1884.
But the second assumption deserves more scrutiny. Weld has been in the race since April, to little effect in the media. But according to an Emerson poll from August, Weld is still somehow pulling 16% of the Republican vote against a sitting Republican president, a number that would give any White House political director pause. (Imagine how much media attention would be given to an Obama primary challenger running in double digits at this point in 2011.) The Republican and independent voters who will have a say in the primary, especially in a mercurial state like New Hampshire, are still only dimly aware of these upstart campaigns. Press attention is largely focused on the Democrats. Walsh and Sanford have not yet prosecuted their cases.
Despite our compulsive need to handicap every political twist and tweet—to write obituaries before any ballots are cast—presidential campaigns remain impossible to evaluate ahead of time. The addition of Weld, Walsh, and Sanford simply adds a quirky layer of unpredictability to an already-uncertain political moment. With the economic outlook looking bumpy and Trump, who can possibly say that these guys will just fade into the background without laying a finger on the president? Polls show only about half of Republicans and Democrats are paying “close attention” to the presidential campaign.
“The whole race is just completely unformed,” said Stuart Stevens, the longtime Republican strategist who is backing Weld’s bid. “There is only one constant out there, and that is Trump’s favorables, which are below 50%. Having been through this before with George W. Bush in New Hampshire in 2000, the only thing I can tell you is that when things happen, they happen late.” In that primary, over the course of just four months, John McCain vaulted from a long-shot curiosity to thumping Bush by almost 20 points.
But even if beating Trump is just a pipe dream for frustrated Weekly Standard fanboys, the Republican primary might be about more than just softening up Trump, or dealing him some kind of mortal blow in New Hampshire. If Trump’s fitness for office becomes a viable conversation piece among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, for even just a few weeks next January or during the primaries in February, they will have accomplished something that nobody in politics has even bothered to attempt this campaign year: talking to center-right swing voters who are uncomfortable with the man in the White House.
I suppose, but it won't last. Weld, Sanford, Walsh and anyone else will be crucified by Trump personally, and it'll be game over the second one of them drops out of the race after the pressure kicks in.
The press badly wants some sort of primary drama heading into next summer, but the reality is both nominees will be completely decided by Super Tuesday next March 3rd. It's six months away, anything else between now and then is noise.
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