State Of Panic

State unemployment figures are in, and they are pretty lousy. Four states now have double digit unemployment (MI, SC, RI, and CA) and half a dozen other states are at 9% or more (OH, NC, OR, NV, IN, and DC).

Needless to say, these numbers are only going to get worse before they get better. The axe has yet to fully drop on other populous states like Texas, Florida and New York, and if layoffs there start gaining steam, we could find the entire country may be into double digit unemployment sooner rather than later.

Very soon now we're looking at a critical mass juncture. Once that tipping point is reached, it's going to start getting very bad, very quickly.

And finally keep in mind that the real unemployment numbers are a good 7-8% higher if you count the full U-6 number, meaning that states like Michigan (at 11.6% U-3) are now approaching the 20% U-6 level. Roughly one in five Michiganders are out of work, underemployed, or have given up on finding a job.

That will spread and grow quickly. Another 2-4% to the U-3 will most likely put most of the country into the 20% U-6 range, with the worst states approaching that 25% mark. I'm not swearing off a U-3 number of 12%, either.

Yes, it could be that bad. We've seen states gain almost 5% unemployment in just 12 months. A similar year ahead to March 2010 would put a lot of states closer to 15% U-3 than 10%.

How's that for cheery?