Not A Done Deal Yet

While California lawmakers are scheduled to vote on approving the state's budget deal as early as tomorrow, everybody else in the state is lining up to tell the State Assembly exactly what they think about the Governator's budget.

Less than 24 hours after Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and legislative leaders announced a plan to close California's massive budget deficit, Los Angeles County officials moved to sue the state, a union for government workers said it might strike, and Republicans threatened to back out of the deal over a provision to cut the number of prison inmates by 27,000.

The governor largely stayed out of sight, except for posting a brief video on Twitter in which he played with a big knife and talked about autographing state property to be sold at auction to raise extra money. Legislative leaders, meanwhile, began to brief their members, and staff started compiling a formal proposal in anticipation of a vote that could occur Thursday.

But as those preparations went ahead, the leader of the Republicans in the state Assembly reacted angrily to news posted on The Times' website about the deal's effect on prisons. Under the plan, some inmates would be allowed to finish their sentences on home detention, new incentives would be created for completion of rehabilitation programs, and parole supervision would be scaled back for the least serious offenders. The prisons now hold 168,000 inmates.

Soon after that news broke, Assembly GOP leader Sam Blakeslee sent members an e-mail with the heading, "Budget Double-Cross?" Blakeslee suggested that he had not known about the plans and said Republicans would not vote for it.

The budget deal needs a two-thirds vote in each house of the Legislature, meaning that it cannot pass without some Republican support. And with the left and the right of the political spectrum unhappy over different items -- and many legislators still in the dark about what, exactly, they will be asked to vote on -- the prospects remained uncertain.

So, exactly what happens if the Republicans jump ship on the prison release program and the Dems jump ship on, well, everything else? That two-thirds majority vote is looking less that assured right now. Local governments like LA County aren't going to sit around and do nothing while they get stripped, either.

Some of the most heated reaction came from city and county government officials. The plan would seize $4.7 billion in local funds through a variety of measures, essentially shifting part of the state's deficit to the local governments. The prospect of losing $313 million in redevelopment funds and $109 million in gasoline taxes prompted the lawsuit threat from Los Angeles County supervisors, a move other local governments are expected to echo.

And state worker unions were angry about the deal's plan to continue three unpaid furlough days a month, which amounts to about a 14% pay cut. The largest of the unions, Service Employees International Union Local 1000, has mailed out strike authorization ballots to its 95,000 members.

"Making state employees pay what amounts to a 15% furlough tax is just plain wrong," said union President Yvonne Walker. "We'll fight in the courts, in the Legislature and in the workplace to have it cut back."

But it was the effect that the deal would have on prisons that seemed to offer the most potential for trouble.

Neither the governor's office nor the Legislature had publicly released details of the prison portion of the agreement. When they were revealed, Blakeslee (R-San Luis Obispo) insisted that he had not agreed to them.

He had agreed to a deal including prison cuts, Blakeslee wrote in a seemingly hurried e-mail to the GOP caucus, but his understanding was that the details were supposed to be ironed out in August.

"I have called and personally told both Karen and Darrell that their will be no republican votes for any portion of the budget if they allow such a bill to be part of the package," Blakeslee wrote, referring to Senate leader Darrell Steinberg (D-Sacramento) and Assembly Speaker Karen Bass (D-Los Angeles).

Even if the budget is approved, lawsuits may tie this thing up for months or longer, and then who knows how much damage will result? It's a complete disaster. All sides are guilty, including the people of California who voted to make sure taxes could never be raised, requiring a two-thirds majority vote to do so.

You're seeing the consequences of that now. Nobody wants to pay taxes, but everybody demands excellent schools and services, or in the case of the TAXEN CUTTEN UBER ALLES they talk everyone into turning those services over to private sector firms who just pocket the money and kick it back to the government types who set up the deals. It's just graft and patronage all the way around.

As I said yesterday, only forced pain will get people serious about reforming government as a way to help people.

[UPDATE 9:45 AM] David Dayen at Calitics (still your best source on California progressive political analysis) calls shenanigans on the "27,000 prisoners released" part of the deal as a way for the Republicans to dump all the blame on the Dems.

OK, so the Governor's Corrections Secy is briefing reporters. And will you look at that, the Times' story was wrong, as was Asm. Blakeslee! The report of 27,000 released is misleading, says the Secretary, but the Administration is interested in some reforms, including a sentencing commission. Wow, that's great, at least in theory. They are offering early release credits that would maybe release 1,700 total. This looks more and more like a coordinated hissy fit laundered through a compliant media.

Deals within deals, wheels within wheels. The game is still whoever gets out of this mess with the most righteous indignation and the least blame wins.

And the people of California lose.