Obama Derangement Index

Eric Kleefield takes a look at Rasmussen's bizarre practice of declaring that people who have strong approval and disapproval of Obama accurately measure the mood of the country somehow, a number that at least according to Rasumssen is at -10.

The key questions then are: What is this number, and is it a valid measurement of real popularity? In an interview today with TPM, Rasmussen defended the index's validity against some harsh criticism, saying that intensity of opinion -- the true figure measured by his index -- does indeed matter.

The thing to remember is that this is not simply subtracting all the respondents who disapprove of President Obama from the people who approve. Instead, Rasmussen takes the numbers who strongly approve or disapprove, and then performs this math. As of today, that index number is -10, compared to an overall rating of +1 in Rasmussen's daily tracker.

It would seem at first glance that this number can skew negative -- that is, the people who disapprove of a president are inherently more likely to feel strongly about it, compared to a certain level of lukewarm support for a president. For example, the 2004 exit poll put George W. Bush's strong approval at 33%, to strong disapproval of 34%. But his overall approval was 53% to disapproval at 46%, and he was re-elected 51%-48%.

I asked three prominent polling experts about this, and they all lambasted it.

Mark Blumenthal of Pollster.com said he didn't know of anyone who had previously given this as a prominent "index." "If Obama now has more strong detractors than strong supporters, that is politically meaningful (though contrary to the results of the recent ABC/Washington Post polls, to pick one example)," said Blumenthal. "But to report only those who strongly approve or strongly disapprove of Obama while neglecting mention of the aggregate numbers strikes me as more political spin than analysis."

Charles Franklin of Pollster.com, who is also my former poli-sci professor, said that it "seems misguided" to write off the moderate approvers and disapprovers. And Prof. Alan Abramowitz of Emory University was quite tough on it: "In my opinion, it makes no sense. It assumes that there's no difference between those who just approve and disapprove, that the only opinions that count are strong approval and disapproval, but there' s no evidence to support that claim."

I'd actually say the number is politically meaningful, but we should really give it a name that is really indicitive of what the number means right now: the Obama Derangement Index. After all, if the President's overall approval rating among all citizens is close to or above 50% and this Rasmussen number shows that 10% more Americans strongly disapprove of the President than strongly approve of him, isn't that a pretty good indication of how large the strongly partisan disconnect is out there, i.e. an indication of how out of touch the people on the strongly disapproval side are compared to the national average?

I mean, that sounds like Rasmussen's index there is actually somewhat politically useful, just not in the way intended. If the President's overall approval numbers were, say, in the low 40's and 20% of America strongly approved and 10% strongly disapproved, that would be pretty far out of whack too, just in the pro-Obama direction.

Now, if the Rasmussen number was +25 or so like in February, you'd expect to see the President's overall approval ratings about 25 points above 50, and they were at 68-70% at one point just after the inauguration. With the President's approval ratings now in the low 50's, you'd expect the Rasmussen number to be in the low but positive single digits if it reflected the whole of America: slightly more partisans for the President than against, reflecting America's overall mood.

It is not. He's at minus ten, in fact 39% strongly disapprove and 29% strongly approve of the President right now. That's a significant disconnect, and more and more sources on the right are running with that number as some sort of real indication of the President's approval rating when it's arguably leaving out the most important group: influenceable swing voters in the middle. Moderates.

What this number tells me is that there's a hell of a lot more partisan disapproval of Barack Obama as a whole than there is in the country as a whole: i.e. there's a mathematically significant number of people who just really don't like the guy, but the country overall does.

Big chunk of America there out of touch. The Rasmussen index is about 10-15 points lower than it should be, meaning the country has a measurable hard-on against the guy.

So, Obama Derangement Index it is: (50 + Rasmussen "Approval" Index) - (Obama's Approval Rating Average at Pollster.com).

Today's Obama Derangement Index is -11.9%. Ideally, this number should be zero. A strong positive number means people are turning into DFH's. A strong negative number means the Haterade is working.

See? Math is fun. I can assign meaning to numbers too, and I can attempt to justify them as well! I'll think I'm going to enjoy this. That is until Nate Silver shows up to beat me with a slide rule, but until that day, I'll be keeping track of that there spiffy new Obama Derangement Index.

New tag, ODI.