Alright Jimbo, I'll Take That Bet

Jim Pethokoukis is betting the GOP will pick up 41 plus seats and take back the House.

As political forecaster Charlie Cook has noted, what happens in the House depends a lot on there being more Democrat retirements in competitive seats. The GOP needs a 40-seat pickup. The more Dem members that stick, the less likely a changeover. If the numbers start going north of 12-15, a warning signal should sound for Democrats. (In 1994, Democrat departures created 31 open seats, 22 of which were won by the GOP.)  For now, Cook sees a possible 20-30 seat pickup in the House for the GOP and four to six in the Senate. (Harry Reid, Blanche Lincoln and Chris Dodd look especially vulnerable). But Cook may be underestimating how the dreadful New Normal in the economy will create a New Normal in politics in 2010.

I'm betting the Teabaggery in 2010 will so alienate the center that the Dems will hold both chambers easily.

We'll see who's right.  Into the future files you go!