The Count Of Charlie Crist, Oh! Part 14

With Marco Rubio up by 23 points in the latest Florida GOP Senate primary poll, Gov. Charlie Crist may be finally making his move towards running with an (I) next his name.  TPM's Eric Kleefield:

Gov. Charlie Crist (R-FL), who has been trailing badly in his Republican primary for Senate, has just vetoed a signature Republican-backed education bill in Florida -- a sign that he could potentially break with his party and run for the Senate as an independent.

The legislation, which was passed through the Republican legislature in the face of massive protests from teachers, would have abolished tenure for new teachers and instituted strict merit pay guidelines. It was heavily supported by conservatives both inside and outside the legislature, notably former Gov. Jeb Bush.

There has been much speculation about whether Crist might abandon his GOP primary -- the TPM Poll Average gives Rubio a lead of 59.1%-27.9% -- and run as an independent. And many media reports have pointed to Crist's choice of signing or vetoing this bill as a key indicator. A Quinnipiac poll this morning suggested that Crist could potentially win a three-way race as an independent.

Crist has flatly denied running as an independent before, but that was before his 35 point lead turned to a 25 point deficit in the primary in a meteoric crash.  This race gets a whole hell of a lot more interesting if Crist decides to go on his own.  This veto may not have given him much of a choice...but then again, maybe that's the message Crist is trying to send.

But a 3-way race is also Democrat Kendrick Meek's best chance to pull off an upset, too. That Q poll is 32-30-24 for Crist, Rubio, and Meek respectively.  That leaves plenty of undecideds and Meek may be able to make up ground if Crist and Rubio keep drifting to the right.

I'll be keeping a close eye on this one.  It could be this year's Hoffman Effect showcase race.