More Primary Impetus

Tomorrow sees big primaries in California, Nevada, South Carolina, Virginia, Iowa, and the runoff for the Democratic primary in Arkansas.

The four races I'm watching on Eric Kleefield's list:

AR-SEN (D): One of the biggest races tomorrow is the Democratic Senate primary runoff between incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln and Lt. Gov. Bill Halter. Lincoln has been aggressively targeted for defeat by organized labor and liberal activists, due to her opposition to the public option during the health care debates. (She did vote for the final bill that was signed into law, and which did not include a public option.) The TPM Poll Average gives Halter a lead of 49.7%-44.9%, but there is also an important caveat: Research 2000 has been the only pollster to publicly release numbers on this race during the runoff period, so we are dependent on only one source of data.

If Lincoln loses, following the defeats of Sen. Bob Bennett (R-UT) and Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA), then 2010 will be the first time since 1980 that three Senators would have lost their nominations within a single cycle -- and there are still two more primary challengers, Republican J.D. Hayworth in Arizona and Democrat Andrew Romanoff in Colorado, who have plausible chances of winning.

I have to like Halter's chances here.  Even with the Big Dog in Blanche's corner, Halter I think can prevail.  Having said that, either Democrat will have an uphill battle in November

CA-SEN (R): Former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina is the establishment-backed favorite to take on Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer, but before she can get to the general election she must first face off against the socially-liberal former Rep. Tom Campbell and Tea Party-backed state Rep. Chuck DeVore. Fiorina lagged behind Campbell for much of the race, but late heavy campaign spending by Fiorina -- and late financial troubles for Campbell's campaign -- have put her ahead. The TPM Poll Average has Fiorina 36.9%, Campbell 23.9%, and DeVore 16.2%.

My goodness, Chuck DeVore's famed "Demon Sheep" ad made him a laughingstock almost instantly.  But if Barbara B. is running against Carlyfornia, my money's on Boxer by a hefty amount.

NV-SEN (R): Three Republicans have been fighting a heated primary race to take on Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. The Tea Party favorite, ex-state Rep. Sharron Angle, has emerged as the new frontrunner thanks in large part to the many, many gaffes of the establishment-backed former state GOP chair Sue Lowden of "Chickens For Checkups" infamy. The new Mason-Dixon poll gives Angle 32%, former UNLV basketball player Danny Tarkanian 24%, and Lowden 23%.

Lowden's not dead yet, but Zandar Rule #4 applies here for Nevada:  Just because you're mad at Harry Reid doesn't magically make any of these Three Stooges in the Republican primary competent.

SC-GOV (R): Four Republicans are competing to succeed term-limited and scandal-plagued GOP Gov. Mark Sanford. The most notable story recently has been the attacks on the frontrunner, state Rep. Nikki Haley, which have involved accusations of marital infidelity and even racial slurs. The last few weeks have been rough, but she still seems to be on her way to a first-place finish headed into a runoff -- the new survey from Public Policy Polling (D) has Haley at 43%, Rep. Gresham Barrett at 23%, state Attorney General Henry McMaster 16%, and Lt. Gov. André Bauer at 12%.

Say what you want about Nikky Haley's sex life, South Carolina Republicans love their Adulterers-In-Chief.  The fact of the matter is Gresham Barrett, Henry McMaster, and Andre Bauer have run horrific campaigns, and Haley is frankly smarter than all three of them combined...and it showed to the voters.

We'll see what happens tomorrow.  If you're in any of these places and eligible for any of these primaries, get out and vote, no matter which party you belong to.