New conventional wisdom: Dems barely keep the House and the Blue Dogs that survive are the margin the Dems need. They'll run the House and may threaten to jump parties to the GOP to give them control unless they get everything they want.
“We would then be in a position where they would have to listen to us,” said one of those Democrats expected to remain, Rep. Gene Taylor (Miss.).
In interviews, Democratic strategists and nonpartisan political analysts pointed to several conservative Democrats who would be most likely to become the Nelsons or Liebermans of the House. Combining political independence with electoral strength, they broke ranks with Pelosi as much or more than any other member of the Democratic Caucus and yet are considered likely to survive all but the largest GOP tidal wave in November.
These members would also be the top candidates for a party switch if the House is up for grabs, and they could determine if Pelosi returns as Speaker at all — a few have said they would prefer someone other than her next year.
In other words, the House becomes as locked up by the "sensible centrists" as the Senate is now. Just what we need. Either the Republicans take the house and get their way, or the Blue Dogs take over and get their way.
Amounts to the same thing in the end, does it not? Hoping there's a third option here: Blue Dogs get trashed, but stronger Dems keep their seats. We'll see.
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