In the end, what we're most likely facing is a situation where Republican turnout will be close to what it was in 2008, and Democratic turnout will be less than what it was in 2006. the results will be something like 50% more Republicans and Independents voting than Democrats in this midterm, and that will spell disaster for the Dems.
Planning to stay home for Election Day because you don't care? You're not alone. And a whole bunch of Republicans do care. They are going to vote. Combined with the overwhelming torrent of corporate money being used to buy votes and movtivate Republicans, we're up against the wall here.
If you want to know why, well, we need about 2.5% GDP growth to break even on employment. Anything less than that an unemployment increases. We're...kinda borderline 2% right now and will be for some time. this means long-term structural unemployment as the new normal. At that rate, unemployment will actually rise about .2% or .3% a year, to around 12% or so in 2020.
The bad news is that in the meantime, the Republicans will have wrecked the economy so badly that 2% growth will be a dream scenario.
In the end, it's unemployment, stupid.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment