Shutdown Countdown, Part 15

Time's almost up on a government shutdown, and the Village is starting to move to "this in inevitable" mode.  I've given my reasons earlier today as to why I think a shutdown is not going to happen, but that is of course dependent on the Tea Party, not Orange Julius.  It's out of his hands now.

And it's looking like the Tea Party really does want to shut the government down over Planned Parenthood, NPR, and the EPA...hard-right social issues, not budgetary issues.  If that's the case, then Boehner has lost control completely, and the Tea Party is about 48 hours from completely wrecking the GOP.

Last night, Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN) appeared on Fox News to explain his uncompromising position over funding the federal government. At one point, Pence appeared to let the truth slip out about the true aims of Republican negotiators, telling host Greta Van Susteren that what Republicans are trying to do is score a victory for “the Republican people.” Soon after realizing that he said that out loud, he backtracked, saying that he wants to score a victory for “the American people,” not the Republican Party:

PENCE: Well, I don’t know if we’re checkmating. But we’re trying — we’re trying to score a victory for the Republican people, for — for the American — for the Republican people — trying to score a victory for the American people, not for the Republican Party. That victory is going to come in stages here.

A slip, maybe.  But one that reveals the truth:



It's a slip that you'll see played again and again if the government shutdown really does happen.  If the Tea Party is willing to shut the government down over women's health care, Car Talk, and air pollution quality, then they lose.  There's no way they can play the "well we don't belong to any one party" card anymore.  The Republicans also lose the "Bad cop, insane cop" game instantly, and Boehner and the GOP have been winning it handily since December.

A last minute deal here and Boehner escapes and moves on to the next battlefield of the debt ceiling fight with a massive advantage, where he can squeeze the Democrats for more and more.  But if it goes to a shutdown, his advantage disintegrates overnight.  And it's looking like Orange Julius has lost control of his party.

We'll see what happens.  I'm still counting on a last minute deal, and believe it or not all the Tea Party posturing that they want to shut the place down is making a deal even more likely in some respects.

But looking several moves down the chessboard, one has to ask what, if anything, the Dems will do other than cave.