Two More Reasons Why There Won't Be A Shutdown

I've already given three reasons why I believe there won't be a shutdown back on Tuesday:  Wall Street, the fact that the Dems keep caving, and the fact that Boehner won't let the Tea Party take over.

Add two more to the list this morning, courtesy the latest Gallup poll:



So here we go:

4)  Americans are overwhelmingly against a shutdown, by some 25 points.  That's not even close.  The "will of the people" isn't to shut the government down.  Independents hate the idea by more than 2 to 1.  The Village would have you believe a shutdown would turn independents off to both parties.  A CNN poll taken last month finds similar numbers.  That brings us to...

5)  Only Tea Party Republicans want a shutdown, so they will be blamed.  And this is the big reason.  Boehner knows this.  When you have Michele Bachmann and friends saying "The Dems want to blame the Tea Party!" at a Tea Party rally where the people are chanting "Cut it or shut it!" then yes, Orange Julius knows exactly what's going to happen to him if the shutdown occurs.  1995 all over again.  Look back at that poll up there.  A majority of Republicans want to shut the government down, 51-44%.  Independents and Democrats do not by 30 plus points.  It will be blamed on the GOP.

So yes folks, once again I'm expecting a deal to be passed last minute and a shutdown avoided.  The Republicans are winning, and the only way they lose is if the Tea Party revolts and forces a shutdown.  That still could happen, but I doubt it.