Both Sides Against The Middle

Blue Dogs: the new Mavericks.

The Village loves nothing more than a group of "sensible centrists" that can oppose legislation that the Village simply doesn't want. But that's the problem with playing both sides against the middle: you're standing in the perfect spot to get crushed between the two.

You'll notice, if you're familiar with the current debates and with some of these people, the interesting fact that some of the more vocal Blue Dogs are among those with the most comfortable margins. As I noted in a post the other day, Mike Ross of Arkansas is a leading healthcare Blue Dog. His MVM is a gaudy +67. Collin Peterson of Minnesota, who helped weaken the cap and trade bill, has an MVM of +41.

You will also notice if you really study this list that McCain won many of these districts rather narrowly. In fact, he won 24 of them by 10 points or fewer. This hardly makes these districts scarlet red.

You can see also how many of these members either run unopposed or face only token opposition in these red districts. Many of them are long-time incumbents and fixtures. Even some with only modestly positive MVM figures are solid incumbents, as you can tell by looking at their margins: Gene Taylor (number 24 on the list, +50), Ike Skelton (number 31, +32), Dan Boren (number 32, +40).

My conclusion? Yes, some Democrats have to be very careful and not be seen as casting a liberal vote. But they're a comparatively small number. A very clear majority of these people have won by large enough margins that it sure seems to me they could survive one controversial vote if they some backbone into it.

But many of these folks manage to sell this story line to Washington reporters who've never been to these exurban and rural districts and can be made to believe the worst caricatures. I say many of these Democrats are safer than they contend. People need to start challenging them on this.

They are indeed a lot safer than the Village contends. After all, if they were safe district Dems playing the "I have to be conservative in this district" card all the time, why the Democratic leadership might have to knock some heads in.

The Village gets to push the Mavericks Revolt Against Despised Pelosi story, the Blue Dogs get to look like Brave Resisters, and the legislation gets watered down, which is the real point. You can accuse the Blue Dogs of a lot of things, but not knowing how Washington works is not one of them.

The only problem for the Blue Dogs is sometimes if you play in the middle of the street, you get run over by the bus. They may be ready to support a public option now, but what's left of that option isn't much of an option, and when the voters figure that out, those safe districts may not be so safe anymore.

[UPDATE 9:20 AM] What BooMan said:

I'm all for congresspeople reading the legislation before they vote on it, but that isn't why the Blue Dogs want to avoid a vote before the recess. The Blue Dogs are clearly trying to defeat health care reform, and Ms. Herseth Sandlin, at least, isn't even doing much to hide that fact.

They are basically bragging about their progress.

May be a long recess for some of them. "I need a four-week vacation from my three and a half day work week to do my job" tends to not go over well in an economy like this.