Wednesday, November 7, 2012

The Morning After

Nate Silver called 49 out of 50 states last night.  If Florida goes for Obama, he's 50 of 50. 

Meanwhile, checking the Future Stupidity files, there are a lot of conservatives who should really, really be embarrassed (and out of a job) this morning.

Way back in April, Mike Leahy at the Daily Caller said this: 

This November, voters will choose common sense over fiscally reckless extremism in what will be a landslide conservative victory. Republicans will retain the House, gain the Senate and win back the presidency with a 2-to-1 Electoral College margin.

Nope. Jim Pethokoukis

And he’s predicting a near-landslide win for Mitt Romney over Barack Obama, with Obama losing by about as big a margin in 2012 as he won back in 2008. Under Hibbs Bread and Peace model, Romney wins 52.5% to Obama’s 47.5%.

Backed the wrong horse, Jimmy.  Glenn Beck's internet rag The Blaze called it for Romney in August, 320-218.

Michael Berry and Ken Bickers of the University of Colorado System Predict Romney to Win 320 Electoral Votes in November

How'd that turn out for you boys?

I made my call on September 12 that Romney would lose.

The Hill's A.B. Stoddard had Obama done two weeks ago.

Perhaps Obama lost the presidency weeks ago, on Oct. 3, when he sleepwalked and scribbled through the first debate and helped make Romney a new candidate overnight. It was Obama's night to finish Romney off; behind in the polls, even Romney likely woke up that morning thinking it was over. But Obama underestimated the task, the challenger and the electorate — all in 90 minutes. So a win this week was critical but perhaps not decisive. There is no obvious reason for Obama's performance to reverse the course of the campaign and blunt Romney now. And though there is one final debate next week, a back-and-forth on national security and foreign policy isn't likely to make the sale for anyone who still cannot make up his or her mind.

You know, no reason other than Obama was good at his job, son.

Newt Gingrich ha Romney winning over 300 EVs.  Just as wrong as he always has been.

I believe the minimum result will be 53-47 Romney, over 300 electoral votes, and the Republicans will pick up the Senate,” Gingrich said. “I base that on just years and years of experience.”

I believe Newt Gingrich is a fool, based on the fact he's never actually right.

Bryan Preston at PJ Media has an egg on his face this morning:

Five days out, the race for president is far from over, but once you get past the oversampling of Democrats in swing state polls, the fundamentals and the campaigns’ body language point toward a Romney victory on Tuesday. Tomorrow’s jobs numbers may be the president’s last chance to change the trajectory of the race.

The fundamentals are that Bryan has no clue how politics work.

Michael Barone's landslide call looks particularly dense today:

Bottom line: Romney 315, Obama 223. That sounds high for Romney. But he could drop Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and still win the election. Fundamentals.

That was high for Romney.  By about 110 electoral votes so far. 

In the end, Nate Silver used hard math and nailed it all the way across the board.  Conservatives, trapped in their un-reality bubble, lost and lost BIG last night.  America is not with you, Republican party

Better figure that out. 

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