Thursday, July 10, 2014

Last Call For The Collapsing Collapsers

Jon Chait punches Reason Magazine's Peter Suderman in the mouth over the glibertarian denial of Obamacare working:

And yet, in another way, the conservative media has provided a useful lagging indicator of Obamacare’s progress. The message of every individual story is that the law is failing, the administration is lying, and so on. The substance, when viewed as a whole, tells a different story. Here is how Suderman, to take just one example, has described the continuous advancement of the law’s coverage goals: 
January 21: The prognosis was so grim that Obamacare might not have yielded any net reduction in the uninsured (“it appears possible that there has been no net expansion of private coverage at all”).

This is the ridiculous position Suderman took six months ago.   This is where he is now:

July 8: A New England Journal of Medicine report that 20 million Americans have gained insurance under Obamacare, argues Suderman, is probably too high (“it’s too early to say exactly how many so far — only that 20 million is almost certainly an overstatement”).

Chait finishes him off deftly:

We have gone from learning that the law has failed to cover anybody to learning it would cover a couple million to learning it would cover a few million to learning that it has probably insured fewer than 20 million people halfway through year one. The message of every individual dispatch is a confident prediction of the hated enemy's demise, yet the terms described in each, taken together, tell the story of retreat.

And yes, the "Obamacare will collapse/death spiral/massive premium spikes/groundswell for repeal!" people are wrong, because those clowns are always wrong about everything important.  And yet, people will still take Peter Suderman and Forbes's Avik Roy and US News's Jim Pethokoukis seriously, even though every ridiculous thing they said about Obamacare turned out to be so amazingly wrong, they should all be fired.

At least they can get affordable health care when that happens.

The Clock's Started On The Marriage Equality Endgame

With the state of Utah appealing the 10th Circuit's ruling overturning the state's same-sex marriage ban as unconstitutional to the Supreme Court this week, the finish line is in sight for making marriage equality the law across the country.

Suddenly it's a possibility that experts are contemplating: marriage equality could be the law of the land all across the United States within one year
On Wednesday, Utah asked the Supreme Court to resolve its dispute with the 10th Circuit Court of Appeals which two weeks ago became the first U.S. circuit court to declare that same-sex couples have a constitutional right to marry.

Legal experts say the Supreme Court is likely to accept the case. With lawsuits piling up, and gay marriage on an undefeated legal streak since the Court axed the Defense of Marriage Act in 2013, the justices may plausibly hear the case in next term and decide it by June 2015. 
"I think the Court will take the case. Since [U.S. v.] Windsor, all of the lower courts that have ruled have struck down laws prohibiting same sex marriages," said Erwin Chemerinsky, the Dean of the University of California, Irvine School of Law. "Perhaps without a split in the lower courts, the Supreme Court will wait. My prediction, though, is that the Court knows the issue needs to be resolved and will take it." 
And if the Court does hear the case, all eyes will be on Justice Anthony Kennedy, not simply because he's the traditional swing vote, but because he has written all three decisions in Supreme Court history that advanced gay rights. 
"I also predict that the five justices in the majority in Windsor will be the majority to declare unconstitutional laws that deny marriage equality to gays and lesbians," Chemerinsky said.

And yes, it would be a 5-4 Justice Kennedy decision, certainly.  I can't imagine any of the other justices, save maybe Chief Justice Roberts, wanting to be on the right side of history, morality, and humanity for once.  We'll see how it shakes out, but it's entirely possible that sometime next June, a whole lot of people are going to be very, very blessed.

Well, and the massive wailing and gnashing of teeth from the God Squad certainly won't hurt either.

Still, let's not get ahead of ourselves, Kennedy and friends will completely ignore decades of precedent if it's an opportunity to put Obama "in his place".

We'll see.

Orange You Glad You're Not This Guy

Seems House Speaker John Boehner is taking a page from the Nancy Pelosi playbook as he's studiously avoiding any talk of impeaching President Obama for being president in the ol' "off the table" move.

Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) on Wednesday said he doesn't support calls from members of his party to impeach President Obama. 
Asked about former GOP vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin's comments that Obama should be impeached over the influx of child migrants illegally crossing the border, Boehner said, “I disagree.”

Then asked about members of the House GOP who have also urged for impeachment, Boehner repeated, “I disagree.”

But for how long is he going to be able to "disagree" and hold out?  The guy isn't exactly known for his ability to keep his caucus from doing stupid, self-destructy things like "shutting down governments" and stuff, unlike Pelosi and her exercised control over the Democrats.

A number of House Republicans have also called for Obama's impeachment, including Reps. Lou Barletta (Pa.), Kerry Bentivolio (Mich.), Paul Broun (Ga.), Michael Burgess (Texas), Blake Farenthold (Texas), Michele Bachmann (Minn.) and Louie Gohmert (Texas). 
But many Republicans are wary of the calls, worried they could hand Democrats a compelling issue that might help the party retain its majority in the Senate during a tough election year. 
The impeachment trial of President Bill Clinton backfired badly on the GOP in 1998, when Democrats against odds picked up seats in the House. 
The House is expected to vote later this month on a lawsuit against Obama for his use of executive actions. Boehner said at the weekly House GOP press conference that he was considering including Obama's action on immigration in the House GOP lawsuit.

Then again, Orange Julius here seems to like doing stupid, self-destructy things himself.


Related Posts with Thumbnails