Friday, June 24, 2016

Is Kaine Able?

Hillary Clinton will be here in Cincinnati on Monday at a fundraiser with Mayor John Cranley, which isn't super weird with Ohio very much being in play in November or anything. She'll be here along with Elizabeth Warren, which is definitely making people ask if Clinton has made her VP selection already.

Hillary Clinton will campaign Monday in Cincinnati with progressive U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts – marking Clinton's first public appearance in Cincinnati this election cycle and her first campaign stop with Warren, a possible vice presidential pick. 
Clinton will also appear Sunday night without Warren at a twice-postponed fundraiser at Cincinnati Mayor John Cranley's home, with contribution levels ranging from $1,000 to $33,400. 
On Monday, Clinton and Warren will appear at 10:30 a.m. at the Cincinnati Museum Center at Union Terminal. The two women "will discuss their shared commitment to building an America that is stronger together and an economy that works for everyone, not just those at the top," Clinton's campaign said in a statement. Tickets to the event are available at
Clinton and her supporters have touted Warren's endorsement as the former first lady seeks to unite Democrats after a long primary battle with U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont. Sanders' progressive ideas won support, and primaries, all over the country. But Clinton won more delegates in primaries and won the support of most of the party's superdelegates, emerging this month as the presumptive Democratic nominee. 
Warren, a longtime progressive leader, waited until this month to endorse the former secretary of state over Sanders. She could help Clinton pull more Sanders supporters to her side.

But having Warren actually by her side isn't enough apparently to stop the rumors that Clinton really wants Virginia's Tim Kaine as her running mate.

Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine is emerging as the leading candidate atop Hillary Clinton’s vice presidential short list, according to Democratic allies and operatives close to the campaign. 
Sen. Elizabeth Warren and HUD Secretary Julian Castro are also top prospects for the Democratic ticket — both representing nods to important Democratic constituencies.

But they have serious drawbacks that make them less appealing for Clinton than the Spanish-speaking, Terry McAuliffe-endorsed, former missionary and swing state governor, who was a finalist in Barack Obama’s vice presidential vetting process eight years ago. 
Kaine currently towers over other top-tier candidates still in consideration like New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker, Labor Secretary Tom Perez, California Rep. Xavier Becerra and Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown. 
“Tim Kaine was a finalist eight years ago because of his executive experience, solidity, values, standing in a critical state and overall profile as someone who would be a good governing partner to Obama,” said former Obama senior strategist David Axelrod, who was involved in the selection process eight years ago. “He was very much in contention and highly regarded.”

Which is weird, because that's exactly what Politico said 8 years ago about him being Obama's veep.

As Senator Barack Obama turns to the choice of his running mate, Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine has emerged as one of the campaign’s potential finalists, sources familiar with conversations in Richmond and in Chicago said. 
Kaine, an early Obama supporter whose biography nicely dovetails with the Illinois senator’s, "ranks very, very high on the short list," said a source who has spoken recently to senior Obama aides about Kaine. 
Kaine "is getting a critical examination," the source said.

That turned out to be utter BS, and we already know that Politico is happily printing warnings from Wall Street that they will abandon the Democrats completely if she picks Liz Warren.

So no, I wouldn't worry about Kaine, rather than Clinton campaigning in a swing state with somebody on her short list.

Anarchy In The UK

A little Sex Pistols this morning in honor of Nigel Farage, Boris Johnson (who will most likely be the net PM) and the rest of the Brexit crew managing to convince the UK to leave the EU and wreck their own economy for a decade or so. 

I am an anarchist
Don't know what I want
But I know how to get it
I want to destroy the passerby

Apart from causing a sharp, short-term hit to Britain’s economy, the first consequence of Thursday’s vote to leave the EU will be a government crisis in London. David Cameron is now almost certain to resign as prime minister and Conservative party leader — most probably sooner rather than later. A new Conservative administration, distinctly more anti-EU in tone, would replace him.

Unless carefully managed, this process will damage relations between London and other EU capitals. The latter will interpret the Brexit vote as a hammer blow to Europe’s unity. For the sake of protecting that unity, they will be in no mood to offer generous post-Brexit deals for Britain. Negotiations will be in danger of turning into an acrimonious tug of war, distracting Europe from other urgent business.

Second, Brexit will make financial markets more sensitive to the vulnerabilities of the 19-nation eurozone. Sterling has already plunged to a 30-year low. Investors will ask whether, in the light of the Brexit shock, eurozone governments have the political will and public support to strengthen the architecture of European monetary union.

One test will be whether Europe’s banking union, including a plan for common deposit insurance, makes progress over the next 12 months. At present it is blocked. More ambitious proposals, such as an Italian plan for common EU “migration bonds” to finance the EU’s response to the refugee and migrant crisis, will have little chance of being turned into action.

Individual eurozone countries will be under intensified market scrutiny. Ahead of the British vote, yield spreads widened between German government bonds and those of less financially solid southern European countries.

The outlook for Portugal, which is ruled by a shaky coalition of the moderate and radical left, is unsettling investors. The deep-seated troubles of Greece have never gone away. In Spain, which holds a general election on Sunday, the prospects for stable government and economic reform are clouded by a fragmented political party system and Catalan separatism.

Not to mention the almost assured rise of Marine Le Pen and the French nationalists in Paris. Count on other countries to hold referendums as well, and it's not going to be pretty.

Now it's still possible that the next government will find a way to stay in and will not invoke Article 50 and leave the EU within two years, but the odds of that are pretty low.  We won't know the full damage from this for several years at the minimum, but this is a cautionary tale: fear of the other won an historic victory in the UK last night.  I'm thinking at some point it will win here in the US, too.  Maybe not Trump, but somebody far worse.


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