Monday, August 8, 2016

Last Call For The New Guy In The Race

The "Never Trump" branch of the GOP (the ones smart enough to know they're going to lose in a Goldwaterslide(tm) with Trump) are trying to recruit an independent centrist candidate for November, for whatever that effort is going to be worth, as it's far too late to get him on the ballot in several key states. 

Evan McMullin, a former CIA counterterrorism officer, will run for president as a third-party conservative alternative to Donald Trump, he said today.

"With the stakes so high for our nation and at this late stage in the process, I can no longer stand on the sidelines," McMullin said in a statement. "Our country needs leaders who are in it for the right reasons and who actually understand what makes this country the greatest on earth. Leaders who will unite us and guide us to a prosperous, secure future, beyond the dysfunction of a broken political system."

He took aim at both major-party presidential nominees.

"Hillary Clinton is a corrupt career politician who has recklessly handled classified information in an attempt to avoid accountability and put American lives at risk, including those of my former colleagues," he said. "She fails the basic tests of judgment and ethics any candidate for president must meet."

As for Donald Trump, he "appeals to the worst fears of Americans at a time we need unity, not division," McMullin said. "Republicans are deeply divided by a man who is perilously close to gaining the most powerful position in the world, and many rightly see him as a real threat to our republic."

People working on McMullin's bid resigned from Better for America — a 501(c)(4) organization that may not officially endorse or back any candidate — in order to push his candidacy. The group has been working for months to select a candidate and get on ballots throughout the country. In some states, like Texas, they will likely have to sue to get on the ballot. A 501(c)(4) group is an issue-based nonprofit that may raise unlimited funds and does not have to disclose its donors.

"Just as the American Revolution required men and women devoted to liberty and freedom to stand up and be counted, this moment calls a new generation to the same sacred task." McMullin said in the statement. "With that in mind, I have decided to pursue the cause of American renewal and the presidency of the United States of America."

It's an extreme uphill climb, but his supporters are confident that McMullin, 40, can act as a disrupter and peel off some red states in a race in which some Republicans are still resistant to Trump.

Hey, if the GOP wants to Nader themselves into losing a dozen red states in three months, I say go for it. But I can't imagine this guy getting even a fraction of the attention that even Jill Stein is getting right now.

Like David French, I'm betting this guy fizzles out before too long.

The Coming Av-Hill-Lanche, Con't

Monmouth University's latest presidential poll shows Hillary Clinton at the all-important 50% mark in their likely voter model, but a whopping 13 points ahead of The Donald.
Currently, 46% of registered voters support Clinton and 34% back Trump, with 7% supporting Libertarian Gary Johnson, and 2% backing Jill Stein of the Green Party. Support among likely voters stands at 50% Clinton, 37% Trump, 7% Johnson, and 2% Stein. In a poll taken days before the Republican convention in mid-July, Clinton held a narrow 43% to 40% lead among registered voters and a 45% to 43% lead among likely voters. 
Clinton has solidified support among her partisan base since the conventions while Trump struggles to lock in his. More than 9-in-10 Democrats (92%) say they will vote for Clinton, up from 88% in July and 85% in June. Just 79% of Republicans are backing Trump, which is virtually unchanged from prior polls (81% in July and 79% in June).
Independents are divided between Trump (32%) and Clinton (30%). In the Monmouth poll taken before the two parties' conventions Trump held a 40% to 31% lead among this group. Johnson the Libertarian has picked up independent voter support in the past month, now at 16% (up from 9%) with this group, while the Green Party's Stein has remained stable at 4% (compared to 3% last month). 
Importantly, Clinton continues to maintain a lead in the swing states - ten states that were decided by less than seven points in the 2012 election. She holds a 42% to 34% edge over Trump in these states, which is similar to her 46% to 39% swing state lead last month. 
"The dust is starting to settle on the tag-team conventions, with the net advantage going to Clinton," said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Not only does Monmouth's polling have an A+ rating from FiveThirtyEight for accuracy, but the crosstabs (PDF) show exactly where Trump is getting obliterated.  Clinton has a whopping 55-27% lead among women, and it's nearly as bad for Trump among college graduates, 53-29%.

To put into perspective what a Clinton +13 national race would mean, we're talking LBJ vs Barry Goldwater in 1964, a map where the Republicans would be lucky to win five or six states, and where Clinton would get 500+ electoral votes.

I don't think that November will be that bad for Trump.


That's Real White Of You, Don

You have to admire the honesty of white supremacists in America, who correctly see Donald Trump as the best shot they've had yet of "cleansing" America of those people and making the country a lot paler than it is now.

The effort to plant the seeds of white nationalism in the political mainstream, where they might blossom into pro-white political coalitions that appeal to a broader swath of Caucasian voters, will not be easy, according to the chairman of the American Nazi Party.

But Rocky Suhayda thinks there is one political figure who presents a “real opportunity” to lessen the load.

Who is it? Donald Trump, the Republican nominee for president.

“Now, if Trump does win, okay, it’s going to be a real opportunity for people like white nationalists, acting intelligently to build upon that, and to go and start — you know how you have the black political caucus and what not in Congress and everything — to start building on something like that,” Suhayda declared on his radio program last month.

“It doesn’t have to be anti-, like the movement’s been for decades, so much as it has to be pro-white,” he added. “You know what I’m saying? It’s kinda hard to go and call us bigots if we don’t go around and act like a bigot. That’s what the movement should contemplate. All right.”

Actual Nazis, guys.  Actual "we identify as the America Nazi Party" people are behind Trump.  And why not? And the Nazis have company.

Suhayda is far from the first avowed white supremacist to publicize his support and enthusiasm for Trump.

Earlier this year, Rachel Pendergraft — the national organizer for the Knights Party, a standard-bearer for the Ku Klux Klan — told The Washington Post that the KKK had begun using Trump’s candidacy as a new conversation starter to recruit followers.

She said this has been discussed on a private, members-only website and in “e-news, stuff that goes out to members.”

In addition to opening “a door to conversation,” she said, Trump’s candidacy had electrified some members of the movement.

“They like the overall momentum of his rallies and his campaign,” Pendergraft said. “They like that he’s not willing to back down. He says what he believes, and he stands on that.”

Actual Klansmen, guys.  Actual Nazis and actual Klansmen backing Trump.

On his radio show in February, David Duke — a former Ku Klux Klan leader and a current U.S. Senate candidate from Louisiana — encouraged listeners to cast their ballots for Trump, saying that “voting against Donald Trump at this point is really treason to your heritage.”

This week, Duke told NPR that he is “100 percent behind” Trump’s political agenda.

“As a United States senator, nobody will be more supportive of his legislative agenda, his Supreme Court agenda, than I will,” Duke said.

“Donald Trump is not a racist,” he added. “And the truth is — in this country, if you simply defend the heritage of European American people, then you’re automatically a racist.

Gosh I wonder where they might have gotten that idea?

But remember there's no difference between the two candidates, right?   Keep supporting the racist, and get support from racists, and people might think you're a racist too, Trump voters.


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