Friday, December 2, 2016

Last Call For Swamp Things

He's a dangerous, unconstitutional, racist, mysogynist, authoritarian demagogue... but he's our dangerous, unconstitutional, racist, mysogynist, authoritarian demagogue, dammit!

As a candidate, Donald Trump promised to “drain the swamp” in Washington. Now that he’s been elected and is embracing part of that very establishment, Democrats and many in the media are slamming him as a typical politician who abandoned a principle as soon as it suited him.

But when McClatchy checked in with several dozen voters in central Pennsylvania – one of the swing states that swung the White House to Trump – to see how they defined the swamp, most didn’t really care. Instead, they said it’s fine with them if he uses the expertise of a DC establishment of lobbyists, donors and special interests to to get his way – and their way.

As I've said time and again, the chief motivation of Trump voters remains to brutally eviscerate the Obama coalition and to make sure they remain politically powerless forever.  The goal is to see them, and especially any white folks who dare to support them, rendered utterly broken and completely smashed in such a brutal and bloody fashion that those people never dare to raise their voices again in our country.

And they know exactly who The Enemy is, aiding and abetting those people.

Many – almost half – of central Pennsylvania voters interviewed were reluctant to give their names and expressed a deep distrust of the media, which they said isn’t giving Trump a chance to even get started.

“It’s been what, a few weeks? How do you know he isn’t going to drain the swamp? He is not even president yet, tell me how is he supposed to be doing that?” asked a woman who did not want to give her name to “the lying press” in Philipsburg.

The Germans had a term for "the lying press" in the 1930's: L├╝genpresseIt's gained far more recent usage in Germany's darker corners to boot.

The coronation of L├╝genpresse represents a troubling trend. The phrase, which means "lying press" and found most recent use in the Nazi era, has become something of a watchword among Germany's increasingly vociferous anti-immigrant (and largely anti-Muslim) activists. In recent months, these demonstrators have called on the media to "tell the truth" about what immigrants are doing to Germany.

Things are moving pretty quickly now.  But he's our monster, say the Trump voters.  The rest of you are his prey.

Read more here:

Read more here:

He Blinded Science With Me!

Trump'sadministration continues to crank out all-star cartoon villains, and that brings us to the Orange Snack Product's National Science Advisor.  There are few jobs on Earth I can think of that I would hate more than this, you'd need someone who was highly educated in science fields, but was still ignorant enough to believe Republican Glibertarian junk science nonsense. You know, one of those high-INT low-WIS types, in Dungeons and Dragons terms.  Now, who would I pick for a job like that if I were Trump?  Who do I know that can get away with picking for being "all sciencey" and still not actually know anything about science?

Why, my very own congressman, of course!

U.S. Congressman Thomas Massie, R-Ky., said he would “seriously consider” a position in President-elect Donald Trump’s administration, but hasn’t been approached by his transition team.

In a phone interview with The Daily Independent on Tuesday, Massie responded to rumors claiming he’s under consideration for a top post in the Trump administration.

“If there’s any truth to the rumor, it’s coming from his team, not mine,” said Massie. “[Trump] has assembled a very impressive cabinet so far, and I would seriously consider working in his administration.”

A report by The Liberty Conservative, an online magazine, surfaced Monday stating that the Trump team is considering Massie for director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy, a position commonly referred to as Science Advisor to the President.

The author cited a “confidential source on the Trump transition team.”

Austin Petersen, a former candidate for the Libertarian Party’s 2016 nomination for President of the United States, founded the website The Libertarian Republic which also posted a story on Monday linking Massie to consideration for the Science Advisor position.

Petersen told The Daily Independent the source of the story is on the Trump transition team and agreed to speak to the online magazine “only on the condition of anonymity.”

Science Advisor to the President is considered the closest position to a cabinet-level role in science and technology. The appointee would spearhead nationwide initiatives related to science and tech, have increased access to Trump and work almost exclusively in the White House complex with the Office of Science and Technology Policy staff.

Massie believes he'd be qualified for the position if considered, but hadn't given it much thought previously.

The libertarian-leaning conservative said he’s even more intrigued by the idea of serving in the cabinet as secretary of energy.

I can't think of a better Trumpie for the job than an MIT-educated engineering award winner who thinks thousands of climatologists are all wrong. But you might want to hold off on those Energey Secretary plans there though Tommy.  Seems that's going to go to the ultimate climate change denier troll.

President-elect Donald Trump's transition team is considering Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia for the energy secretary job, according to three sources close to the discussions.

The conservative Democrat “is being considered to show the coal people how serious Trump is about coal,” one source said.

Manchin told POLITICO Thursday afternoon that he and his staff haven’t been contacted by Trump’s transition team and he didn't have any trips to New York City on his calendar. But Manchin, who is up for reelection in 2018 in a state that has become increasingly more Republican over the past decade, also didn’t dismiss the notion of taking DOE’s top job in the Trump administration.

“If I can do anything that would help my state of West Virginia, and my country, I would be happy to talk to anybody,” he told POLITICO. “Other than that, I haven’t heard anything ... I have nothing scheduled.”

Just last month, Manchin was named the vice chair of the Senate Democratic Policy and Communications Committee.

The lone coal country Democrat left in these parts who then joined Chuck Schumer's leadership team, now bailing on the Dems ahead of an almost certain loss in 2018?

Like I said, almost cartoon villainy stuff here.

That Poll-Asked Look, Con't

Nate Silver crunches the numbers and finds out that America's pollsters failed miserably in their likely voter models, not in the direction that I anticipated (underestimating voters of color) but in badly underestimating the number of white voters without college degrees that showed up for Trump.

Let’s take two fairly obvious data-driven conclusions from the 2016 election and see if there’s any link between them. 
The first conclusion: Education was almost everything in explaining the results of the race. Donald Trump substantially improved on Mitt Romney’s performance among voters without college degrees — especially white voters without college degrees. Hillary Clinton somewhat improved on President Obama’s performance with college-educated voters. The link between education levels and the shift in the vote is robust, even when controlling for other factors, such as income levels. 
The second conclusion: The polling was bad. Actually, let me amend that: The polling wasn’t that bad. (Reporters and analysts should have been more prepared for the possibility that Trump might win. We’re going to keep being really annoying about this.) 
With Clinton’s lead in the popular vote still expanding, the national polls are going to wind up having been pretty good (they showed her winning by 3 to 4 percentage points, and she’ll eventually win by about 2 points). The state polls? Not so hot. What matters, though, is not only the magnitude of the error in the state polls but the direction of it. The errors were correlated from state to state, and Clinton underperformed in a trio of states in the Rust Belt — Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania — that were supposed to have been part of her firewall; that underperformance cost her the Electoral College.
So, are these two things connected? Did Trump beat his polls in states with large numbers of white voters without college degrees? 
The short answer is “yes.”

And the data is pretty convincing: there are 19 states that have a majority of white voters without college degrees.  Donald Trump beat the averages of state polls in 18 of those 19 states (all but Oregon) and he beat them by an average of 7.6 points.  He beat Ohio's and Wisconsin's state polls by 6 points,, Michigan's by 4, Pennsylvania's by 5, NC's by 4, and Florida's by 2.  He won all of those states.

In blood red states like Kentucky, he beat his state polling average by 11 points and by 14 in WV..

In other words, where national polling was correct (Clinton will end up winning the national popular vote by 2.5%-3% or so, where the polls had her) state polling in 2016 was 100% useless.

The same thing that happened in Kentucky in 2015 with Matt Bevin versus Jack Conway, the poll that was off by 13 points?  In 2016 it was national, and every single polling outfit messed up at the state level.

It's worth thinking about.  The reality however?

All less than Jill Stein's total in each state.

This is why Trump will be President in January.

Never forget.


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