Tuesday, June 16, 2020

Last Call For The Sad, Sad State Of Statehood, Con't

Back in July I noted that a Gallup poll had the country overwhelmingly against DC statehood, even a majority of Democrats opposed it eleven months ago.

No major subgroups of Americans voice support for D.C. statehood. However, support is higher among left-leaning political groups than right-leaning ones. Self-described liberals (40%) and Democrats (39%) are among the groups showing higher support. Republicans (15%) and conservatives (14%) are among the subgroups least supportive. Thirty percent of independents approve of making D.C. a separate state.

Given Washington's strong Democratic leanings, making it the 51st state would almost certainly add one voting Democrat to the House and two to the Senate, and that likelihood may underpin Republicans' reluctance to make it a state.

There were modest party differences in 1992, when 24% of Democrats and 16% of Republicans favored making Washington a state, according to the Yankelovich survey.

Steny Hoyer and the Democrats figure striking while the iron is hot is a good idea, and the bill might even pass the House this time.

It will never get any further.

House Majority Leader Steny H. Hoyer (D-Md.) has chosen June 26 to hold the first floor vote in a generation on D.C. statehood, hoping to harness a national reckoning on race and capitalize on widespread outrage over the federal response to street protests in the nation’s capital.

Officials expect legislation making the District the 51st state to pass the House of Representatives with an overwhelming majority of Democrats, which would be a watershed moment for pro-statehood activists and the first time in U.S. history that either chamber of Congress has advanced a statehood bill.

Forty of 100 senators have announced they support D.C. statehood. But Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) strongly opposes the legislation, and has said it would not get a vote in the Senate as long as he’s in charge.

“Statehood is the only way,” D.C. Mayor Muriel E. Bowser (D) said at a news conference Tuesday morning, where she was joined by Hoyer, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and D.C. Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton (D), the District’s nonvoting representative in the House.

Making the District a state would not only give the 700,000 citizens of the nation’s capital a vote in Congress, Bowser said, it would prevent National Guard troops from other states coming into the city without the city’s consent and could prevent the federalization of local law enforcement.

Pelosi called the political situation in the District “unjust, unequal, undemocratic and unacceptable.” Norton said statehood would “put an end to our oldest slogan: Taxation without representation.”

The officials insisted that the effort is not about partisanship but about citizenship. At the same time, however, Hoyer and others said “some” opposition to statehood over the years has stemmed from the perception of the District as “too Democratic, too black and too liberal” — an old shibboleth referring to the city’s voting patterns and its racial makeup.

There is no way Mitch McConnell is going to add two permanent Democratic Senate seats under any circumstances, and even if McConnell was somehow defeated and the Democrats had a Filibuster-proof 60 seats in January, Democrats can't even get more than 40 votes for it in the Senate right now.

DC statehood may happen in may lifetime, but not anytime soon.

Still, getting such a bill passed in the House would be a significant accomplishment, so there's that, but as with Donald Trump's impeachment, not a whole hell of a lot is going to result from it.

It's another ultimately futile Pelosi and Hoyer gesture that will be sadly forgotten in a matter of weeks.

The Blue Wave Rises, Con't

The Biden Machine rolls on in Michigan to a huge lead in the latest Detroit Free Press poll.

The damage done to President Donald Trump's standing in Michigan following recent protests outside the White House and in cities across the U.S. may have been even greater than originally believed, a new poll released to the Free Press said Tuesday.

Two weeks ago, EPIC-MRA of Lansing, a polling firm that does work for the Free Press, released a survey showing former Vice President Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, leading Trump 53%-41% in Michigan, a 12-point edge.

But a second poll, started on May 31, a day after the first poll began, and concluded a day later than the first poll, on June 4, showed Biden leading Trump 55%-39% in Michigan, a 16-point margin. As it did for the first poll, EPIC-MRA surveyed 600 randomly selected likely voters for the second one, which had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The second poll also showed: 
The percentage of Michiganders surveyed who believe the country is headed in the wrong direction increased from 63% in the first survey to 70% in the second. The percentage who believe the U.S. is headed in the right direction fell from 30% to 22%.
The percentage of those with a negative view of Trump as president rose from 56% to 61%, as the percentage of those with a positive view fell from 42% to 38%. 
While the same number, 51%, said they would vote to replace Trump in November, the percentage saying they would vote to reelect him fell, from 38% to 33%. The percentage of those saying they would consider voting for someone other than the president rose from 8% to 13%. 
While it's not known for certain what caused the change, the second survey added a day of polling in the immediate aftermath of law enforcement and military personnel on June 1 forcefully clearing peaceful protesters from a public square outside the White House. They used pepper spray and smoke canisters to move the crowd so Trump could have his photo takenholding a Bible outside St. John's Church, which had been damaged in another protest. 

If Trump is truly behind 12-16 points in battleground Michigan, he is done, toast, kaput.

If the election were held today.

It won't be.  We have a long way to go and everything could change in the space of a day, let alone five months.

But Trump is losing.  We have to make sure that remains the case.

Black Lives Still Matter, Con't

Here in the Cincinnati/NKY area, there have been Black Lives Matter protests in places I never thought I would see, places like Hazard, KY and even right here in Florence and Fort Mitchell.  But as peaceful protests continue nationwide, armed counter-protesters are starting to show up in smaller towns like Bethel, Ohio making sure that Black Lives are not only going unrecognized as worthy, but as human.

Clashes erupted between groups during a Black Lives Matter demonstration in Bethel on Sunday afternoon when counter-protesters rushed the demonstrators on Sunday afternoon. 
Multiple people captured the events in videos that were later posted to Facebook.

Village officials say motorcycle gangs, back the blue organizations, and Second Amendment advocates tried disrupting the Black Lives Matter protest. 
Alicia Gee, a 36-year-old substitute teacher, was inspired to hold the demonstration after seeing an Instagram post about a similar event in Hazard, Kentucky. 
"I guess in my mind, we only think about protests happening in the city. I've always gone to cities to protest. And then to see that something was happening in Hazard – I was like, if Hazard, Kentucky can have a protest, Bethel can have something," Gee said. 
Gee, who has lived in Bethel her whole life, is a member of an artist collective, with 15 other people that became her co-organizers for the demonstration. 
Gee is adamant that the event was not about protesting anything, but rather a demonstration of solidarity with the Black community. This was her first time planning a demonstration, though she had experience with event planning as a former children's minister.

Gee created an event page on Facebook on Tuesday, thinking she'd be pleased if 50 people showed up. 
On Saturday night, she went out to the Plane Street to draw X's on the sidewalk so that demonstrators could remain six feet apart and follow federal social distancing guidelines.

It started out pleasant enough.

Then the assholes with the guns showed up.

The Bethel Police Department is investigating about 10 incidents that stemmed from a clash between counter-protesters and a Black Lives Matter march on Sunday including a protester being punched in the back of the head. 
Police officials said the group Bethel’s Solidarity with Black Lives Demonstration worked with police for several days to coordinate the event on Plane Street. According to a statement, police said they expected 20 to 25 people. 
More protesters than expected showed up bringing the total to between 80 and 100 people, then counter-protesters began making their way to Bethel as well. 
"These groups included several motorcycle gangs, back the blue groups, and second amendment advocates," Bethel officials said in the statement. 
The crowd swelled to around 800 people, police estimated, included about 250 on motorcycles. 
The entirety of Bethel's police force, six officers, were at the event monitoring the situation and attempting to keep the groups separated and peaceful. A group of Clermont County Sheriff Deputies who planned to staff the event as well were called away, leaving only one additional deputy to help. 
More sheriff's deputies would arrive later as the conflicts escalated. 
"Towards the latter part of the event, the various other groups began to move toward the Bethel’s Solidarity with Black Lives Demonstration area," the statement said. "This resulted in approximately 10 incidents. Those involved were removed from the scene and there are ongoing investigations concerning those incidents." 
Anyone who can possibly identify suspects or was a victim during the incidents on Sunday is being encouraged to contact the Bethel Police Department.

The more things change...


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