The weird world of international internet betting markets seems to believe Donald Trump won't be president in 2021.
Former Vice President Joe Biden has surged past President Donald Trump in online betting markets tied to the outcome of the 2020 presidential race as the U.S. continues to grapple with a deepening financial crisis, spreading pandemic and historic protests over police brutality.
Biden, the apparent Democratic nominee, has taken his biggest lead over Trump to date in Smarkets, a U.K.-based online gambling platform, as well as PredictIt, an online betting platform established by researchers in New Zealand.
As recently as last week, Trump was favored to win on both platforms. Biden’s chances have risen to 50%-43% on Smarkets and 53%-46% on PredictIt.
Spokespeople for both companies confirmed that trading volume has risen to levels unseen since March, when the U.S. began shutting down major portions of its economy to halt the spread of the coronavirus.
Betting markets are distinct from polls, which have for months consistently shown Biden leading Trump and currently show Trump behind by about 8 percentage points.
While polls typically ask voters which candidate they support, betting markets allow users to wager on whom they think will ultimately win November’s election, taking into account factors such as the Electoral College. Trump, who won the Electoral College in 2016 despite losing the popular vote, has typically performed better in betting markets than polls.
Representatives for the campaigns did not respond to requests for comment.
With easy victories in last night's primaries in Iowa, Pennsylvania, Indiana and five other states (plus DC), Biden wrapped up the nomination with the delegates he needed.
Hopefully we can move on.
You know, after the total chaos.