Democrats' already wide advantage over Republicans in a hypothetical Congressional matchup has grown, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS. At the same time, enthusiasm about voting next year has increased among Democrats nationwide following an unexpected win in Alabama's Senate special election and a strong showing in Virginia's state government elections last month.
Among registered voters, 56% say they favor a Democrat in their congressional district, while 38% prefer a Republican. That 18-point edge is the widest Democrats have held in CNN polling on the 2018 contests, and the largest at this point in midterm election cycles dating back two decades. The finding follows several other public polls showing large double-digit leads for Democrats on similar questions.
Independent voters favor Democrats by a 16-point margin, 51% to 35%, similar to the 50% to 36% margin by which they favored Democrats in fall of 2005, ahead of Democrats' 2006 recapturing of the House and Senate. The Democrats hold a larger lead overall now because Republicans make up a smaller share of the electorate than they did in 2005.
And those Republicans who are still in the electorate are less enthusiastic about voting next year than Democrats. Overall, 49% of registered voters who are Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting for Congress next year, compared with 32% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independent voters who say the same.
That's not the funny part. This is.
The poll was conducted before the passage of Republicans' signature tax reform bill this week, which the GOP hopes will boost their electoral prospects next year. Findings from the same poll released earlier this week found that the bill's unpopularity on the rise, with few expecting tangible benefits for themselves once it becomes law.
It's going to actually get worse for the GOP.in 2018, believe it or not. In the crosstabs of the poll, Dems lead with men 49-42%, women 59-34%(!!!), and are tied with white voters at 46% each. Non-white voters go with Dems 70-23%.
White non-college voters still favor the GOP, 52-40%, but they are offset by college-educated white voters, who favor the Dems by 21 points, 58-37%. Dems also lead all age groups, even age 50-64 Boomers 46-44%. Among Gen X voters 35-49, Dems win by a staggering 60-29%.
It's going to be a good year in 2018 for Dems unless you know, that war comes along and we rally around the flag. Also keep in mind Dems had a 2 point lead in this same CNN poll in October 2014 and the GOP smashed the Dems thanks to record low turnout.
Somehow I think people are going to be motivated in November to vote however.