Tuesday, September 3, 2019

Last Call For Mark Of The Millennials

It's pretty easy to slag on older Boomers and Silent Generation septuagenarians as being the ones wrecking the planet, but there's five Millennial men in particular who are very convincingly making a bid to be Earth's Legion of Doom for the next 40 or 50 years.  The Cut's Noreen Malone

So here we are, a generation munching on the last greens of its salad days, saddled with dull, decade-old complaints about our coddledness, our entitlement, our selfies, our political correctness — most blah-blah-blah of all, by the boring clichĂ© of our avocado toast. In a more self-serving version of this narrative, we are the generation that disrupted salad days and made them Sweetgreen days. The generation of AOC and Rihanna and DeRay Mckesson and Glossier! Of hope and protest and changing norms!

No. The world’s five most powerful millennials now, and maybe for the rest of our lives, are Jared Kushner (b. 1981), Kim Jong-un (b. 1984), Mark Zuckerberg (b. 1984), Stephen Miller (b. 1985), and Mohammed bin Salman (b. 1985). The globe is their avocado — to be splayed and robbed of its core and smashed, then spread before them for the taking — and we’re toast.
As for whether these are truly the five most powerful, yes, there is enormous influence in being the most visible member of Congress, in using your platform as a historically great athlete to do good, or in being Beyoncé. But is it unchecked power, of the kind that can move markets and armies unilaterally, swiftly, and on what can amount to a whim? Three of these men are the de facto heads of nation-states, if you count Facebook as a nation-state. The other two, with their mysterious influence, have more power in the Trump administration than anyone, arguably including the president.

These are men who, barely having hit their stride, can tout such accomplishments as: the undermining of an American election, the erosion of privacy norms and attention spans, the desiccation of journalism, the destabilization of the Middle East, a genocide, the creation of modern American internment camps, the beheading of a journalist, the flooding of the world economy with huge investments in unsustainable tech start-ups that undercut smaller merchants, public mass executions, the threat of nuclear war, and whatever other assorted horrors might be happening behind the cloak of secrecy that surrounds North Korea, Saudi Arabia, the Trump administration, and the inner sanctum of Facebook. I am probably leaving a few things out.

Okay, you might be thinking. These men are technically millennials but not in spirit or practice. They are too unusual, too geopolitically unique, to function as members of any generation. No. They are, in fact, textbook exemplars of theirs. Name me a so-called millennial characteristic and I can name a fuckboy-despot who possesses it.

Yeah, I'm gonna go with the five most nihilistically dangerous assholes on the planet are all five to ten years younger than I am.

Which means, we're fucked for decades.  If you think today's adults are going to save us, understand they're not.  Especially the white ones.

And oh yeah, they helped elect Trump.  Did we forget this somehow?

Boris Bad Enough Versus Moose And Squirrel

As I hinted at yesterday, UK Emergency Inflatable Prime Minister Boris Johnson isn't very good at his job, and completely unfathomable, totally unexpected things like "somebody called his stupid Brexit bluff" have happened.  Beeb Politics editor Laura Kuenssberg:

Conservative MP Phillip Lee has defected to the Liberal Democrats ahead of a showdown between Boris Johnson and Tory rebels over Brexit.

Dr Lee, the MP for Bracknell, took his seat on the opposition benches as the PM addressed the Commons.

His defection means Boris Johnson no longer has a working majority.

MPs hoping to pass legislation to block no deal have cleared the first hurdle after Speaker John Bercow granted them an emergency debate.

That debate could last up to three hours, followed by a vote. If the MPs win the vote - defeating the government - they will be able to take control of Commons business on Wednesday.

That will give them the chance to introduce a cross-party bill which would force the prime minister to ask for Brexit to be delayed until 31 January, unless MPs approve a new deal, or vote in favour of a no-deal exit, by 19 October.

It seems right now - although there is still some arm twisting going on behind the scenes - that the government is set to lose the vote.

We are finding ourselves in the middle of a full-throttle confrontation between a Parliament that does not want to allow the country to leave the EU without a deal and a prime minister who secured his place in power promising he would always keep that as an option.

Both of them cannot be the victors here.

And they are both determined to win.

This is essentially the US equivalent of Donald Trump saying "If any Republican in the House votes for this Obamacare slash expanded debt ceiling legislation I'll kick them out of the party" in order to allow the GOP to destroy America's credit rating and economy...

...but also the same week there's an upcoming vote for Speaker of the House, and that vote whip count finds Republican Kevin McCarthy would win by one vote and then less than 24 hours later...

...not only does that Obamacare vote happen, the Republican switches to the Dems and votes to make Nancy Pelosi speaker.

The Earth would crack open and swallow up Capitol Hill.

This basically happened in Parliament just now.


Forty-Five Versus Three Or Four

With the first 2020 contests now just four months out, Team WIN THE MORNING sees the Democratic presidential field narrowed to just three and generously, four.

The bottom is falling out of the Democratic presidential primary. And the top-tier — no longer five candidates, but three — is becoming more insurmountable.

For more than a year, Democrats had approached their nominating contest with a widely-shared belief that — like Republicans in the earliest stages of their primary four years ago — they, too, might take turns rising and falling in an expansive field. That expectation sustained the campaigns of more than two dozen contenders this year.

But in recent weeks, the leading band of candidates has contracted unexpectedly early. Heading into the fall, only three contenders are polling above single digits: Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders.

Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg remain at the periphery, while lower-polling candidates have largely failed to muster sustained, upward movement in fundraising or polling.

According to interviews with about two dozen Democratic operatives and consultants, there is little reason to expect any of them will.

“It was legitimate to say ‘Top 5’ for a long time, but with the exception of Kamala Harris being at the outer perimeter of the top three … you’d have to have a strange confluence of events for someone outside those four to win,” said Philippe Reines, a longtime Hillary Clinton confidant. “It would require all four failing. Like, you would need all four of them to be in a plane crash or something.”
For every other candidate, Reines said, “It’s too late in the game to keep saying it’s too early.”

What's different now compared to four years ago and the GOP clown car?

By this point in the Republican primary in 2016, Jeb Bush was already cratering. Scott Walker had risen and fallen. Donald Trump was in first, still to fend off a surge from Ben Carson before running away from the field

The 2020 Democratic primary, by contrast, has been defined by its relative stability, with two full fundraising periods and two sets of debates now done.

Anna Greenberg, a pollster who advised former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper’s since-aborted presidential bid, said there was no boom-and-bust for Democrats because the primary “started so early, before voters really started paying attention,” and because of “the sheer volume of candidates.”

“It’s a little bit surprising because compared to ‘16 on the Republican side, where it seemed like a number of people had their moment in the sun … there hasn’t really been anybody who’s taken a meteoric rise,” said Scott Brennan, an Iowa Democratic National Committee member and former state party chairman.

Brennan said he's spoken with several campaigns recently whose advisers “feel like they’re poised and ready, they’re poised and they're waiting for their moment.”

But “for whatever reason," he said, "they haven’t had that.”

The old saw is Democrats fall in love at primary time, whereas Republicans fall in line.  But if anything the reverse seems to be true.  Republicans have been falling back in love with Trump from 80% support to 95% for two years now, despite the 2018 drubbing in the House, whereas Democrats are increasingly falling in line behind "electability" and that's Biden, Sanders, and Warren, with Harris as the dark horse.

Everyone else is fooling themselves.

The problem is that for once, Politico's analysis isn't screamingly incorrect.  This is a three or four person race now, but settling this out will take a while.

We'll see who catches fire, I'm still edging towards Harris and Warren myself.  But there's still a good ten people that could and should drop out of this race tomorrow.


Related Posts with Thumbnails