Thursday, December 30, 2010

One Hell Of A Snow Job

Today's winger "How dare they!" poutrage is a NY Post story pinning the blame for the slow cleanup in NYC after last weekend's blizzard squarely on those Evil Unionized City Workers.

Selfish bosses from the snow-slammed outer boroughs ordered their drivers to snarl the blizzard cleanup to protest budget cuts -- a disastrous move that turned streets into a minefield for emergency-services vehicles, The Post has learned.

Miles of roads stretching from as north as Whitestone, Queens, to the south shore of Staten Island still remained treacherously unplowed last night because of the shameless job action, several sources and a city lawmaker said, which was over a raft of demotions, attrition and budget cuts.

"They sent a message to the rest of the city that these particular labor issues are more important," said City Councilman Dan Halloran (R-Queens), who was visited yesterday by a group of guilt-ridden sanitation workers who confessed the shameless plot.

Halloran said he met with three plow workers from the Sanitation Department -- and two Department of Transportation supervisors who were on loan -- at his office after he was flooded with irate calls from constituents.

The indignation is thick enough to weld to the front of a truck to use to plow the boroughs. The garbage slowdown killed people! String up the sanitation workers!

Of course a slightly less breathless look at the situation in the Big Apple this weekend reveals a lot more.

But the Bloomberg administration decided not to call a snow emergency. One city official briefed on the response to the storm said it was explicitly considered. But ultimately Mr. Doherty and Ms. Sadik-Khan decided against it, said Seth Solomonow, a spokesman for Ms. Sadik-Khan.

Mr. Solomonow said the forecast was not severe enough.

“As of about 5 p.m. on Christmas Day,” he said, “the forecast called for about a foot of accumulation, which is not uncommon and which is not a basis for a snow emergency declaration.”

Mr. Bloomberg, asked Tuesday why an emergency had not been declared, confused the issue by asserting that doing so would have put more cars on the roads, potentially creating more problems. But clearly, had he declared an emergency shortly after the Weather Service’s blizzard warning, there would have been ample time to move cars before the heavy snow began.

Mr. Hauer called the decision bewildering, and Mr. Bloomberg’s claims misleading.

“We’ve done snow emergencies in the city for decades, many decades, and people have always found a place to put their cars,” said Mr. Hauer, who has had many angry disagreements with Mr. Bloomberg over the years. “You’ve just got to give them enough time.” 

A snow emergency would have cleared the roads for emergency vehicles, but it was never declared by the Mayor's office.  Oh...and the city often hires private, non-unionized contractors to deal with snow emergencies too.

“If we had the private industry and the front-end loaders early, come in, it would have been a big help, no question about it,” Mr. Doherty said in an interview on Wednesday. “It is a problem.”

The problem, he said, rested largely with him. He said he might have taken too long to make the first calls for private help. He said he had become too consumed with deploying thousands of his own workers.

“Why did we wait so long?” he asked. “Well, maybe that is something we have to look at, no questions about it.”

There are, though, an array of questions about the system for soliciting private assistance. The city’s list of reliable, proven, untainted businesses has shrunk. Any new volunteers have to be vetted; it can take 12 hours to get them rolling.

Unlike years ago, Mr. Doherty said, the private workers just do not seem “interested in the work anymore.”

“Are we paying enough?” he said. “It may be the reason.” 

Seems to me the blame for this lies with a city administration that didn't take the threat of a blizzard seriously enough because it would have meant somewhere in America that a local government was spending money on something, clearly an illegal, unconstitutional act in the eyes of wingers.  Decisions were made pretty high up to cut corners and this was the result.

But blaming the city sanitation workers for the clogged streets is just idiotic.  Wingers expect all this stuff to magically be cleaned up, but don't think anyone should have to foot the bill...especially taxpayers.  Governance itself is the enemy, it seems.

This Year In Busted Banks

Unless there are any surprises tomorrow, 2010 will end with 157 bank failures, surpassing last year's 140. In 2011 more will be on the way.

The FDIC's list of "problem" banks - those whose weaknesses "threaten their continued financial viability"- stood at 860 as of Sept. 30, the highest since 1993. Historically, about a fifth of banks on the watch list end up failing.

Bank failures have left the FDIC insurance fund in the red, but the agency predicts that it will have more than enough money to meet the anticipated cost of failures through 2014.

As the financial crisis of recent years recedes, the FDIC has been predicting that 2010 will be the high-water mark for bank implosions.

"Going forward, the FDIC looks to see fewer failures," agency spokesman Greg Hernandez said.
Some industry observers agreed.

"I think we're over the hump of the problem but far from the end," banking consultant Bert Ely said.

Gary B. Townsend, president of Hill-Townsend Capital, said the industry is not just out of the woods, "we are far beyond the woods."

By one measure, the trouble is already abating. On average, the banks that failed this year were much smaller than those that failed last year.

The banks that failed this year had assets totaling $92.1 billion, a decrease of 45.7 percent from the $169.7 billion in assets of the banks that failed in 2009.

"These are very small institutions," Townsend said. "The total assets that they represent is insignificant compared to the financial system as a whole. It's quite manageable."


Well gosh, that's nice.  If that one-fifth rule holds true, there will be 172 bank failures in 2011.  Sure the banks are smaller, and there's a reason for that:  these are the banks below the "Too Big To Fail" line, community and regional banks.  They are getting snapped up by the megabanks, while the taxpayer foots the bill for the rest of the mess.

The forced consolidation by FDIC attrition of the industry will continue in 2011.  Fewer banks means less competition, means higher lending costs to the customer.

The community bank is on the endangered species list.

Working Over Veterans

Veterans of Iraq and Afghanistan are finding that transitioning back to the civilian workforce is pretty damned difficult when there's no jobs.


While their nonmilitary contemporaries were launching careers during the nearly 10 years the nation has been at war, troops were repeatedly deployed to desolate war zones. And on their return to civilian life, these veterans are forced to find their way in a bleak economy where the skills they learned at war have little value.

Some experts say the grim employment landscape confronting veterans challenges the veracity of one of the central recruiting promises of the nation's all-volunteer force: that serving in the military will make them more marketable in civilian life.

"That [promise] works great in peacetime," said Lawrence J. Korb, an assistant secretary of defense for manpower under President Ronald Reagan who is now a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress. "But that does not work too well in war. . . . If you are in there four years and deployed twice, what kind of skills have you learned other than counterinsurgency?"

The unemployment rate for Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans was 10 percent in November, compared with 9.1 percent for non-veterans, according to the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics. Unemployment rates for combat veterans of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have been higher than the overall rate since at least 2005, according to the bureau. 
And it's pretty simple, really.  Employers these days can pick and choose the most qualified candidate for the job, and that usually means somebody with recent experience, not somebody who has spent the last several years out of the job market.

But note that it's not the recession that caused this.  Iraq and Afghanistan vets have been unemployed at a higher rate since 2005, well before the bottom fell out of the job market.  Employers wonder about the mental health history of a returning vet who served three or four tours in the sandbox.

That means the job market, or lack of it, is driving a lot of vets back into active service.  The larger problem is after nine years of war, we're discovering new and heartbreaking costs everywhere.

If It's Thursday...

New jobless claims finally...finally...fall under 400k for the first time in nearly two and a half years.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 34,000 to a seasonally adjusted 388,000, the lowest reading since early July 2008, the Labor Department said Thursday. That was well below economists' expectations for 415,000.

The prior week's claims figure was revised modestly up to 422,000 from the previously reported 420,000. A Labor Department official said there was nothing unusual in the state-level data and described the report as clean.

That's good news if the trend keeps up and businesses are hiring in 2011.  Unfortunately, I see a reversal in much of the gains made in the labor market next year.   I'd very much like to be wrong about this, but I doubt I will be.

The Epic Year In Politics Win

I've got five folks in consideration for this year's EPIC WIN, Political category:

  • Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) -- who came back from Tea Party primary hell served up by Joe Miller and Sarah Palin to win as a write-in.
  • Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) -- who SMASHED a path through health care reform with her gavel, got smashed in return by voters, and still remained minority leader going into 2011.
  • Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) -- who succeeded Ted Kennedy and turned out to be a better Democrat than some Democrats in the Senate, going from GOP hero to goat in less than a year (and Donk goat to hero in the same time period.)
  • Rep. Barney Frank (D-MA) -- who laid the smacketh down on reporters, Republicans, and critics by getting both Wall Street reform and DADT repeal through the House.
  • President Barack Obama -- who rolled the dice on the lame duck, yelled Yahtzee and came away with a hell of a bag of Christmas legislation out from under the Republicans' noses.

So, of those five players in 2010, which one had the biggest EPIC WIN in Washington this year?

More Recess Success

President Obama made six recess appointments on Wednesday as Senate Republicans stalled the confirmation process in 2010.

Obama first nominated James Cole to the No. 2 Justice Department post in May. But Republican lawmakers blocked his confirmation in part because of questions about his role as an independent consultant for AIG before its near collapse and government bailout in 2008. Senate Republicans complained that confidentiality agreements prevented them from receiving answers about his work for the company.

Cole is a close friend of Attorney General Eric Holder and a partner at a private Washington law firm. His appointment is one of six Obama announced from his vacation in Hawaii, including ambassadors to Turkey and Syria.

Both Republican and Democratic presidents have made recess appointments, which circumvents the Senate's authority to confirm nominees, when they could not overcome delays in the Senate. President George W. Bush made more than 170 such appointments in his two-term presidency. President Bill Clinton made nearly 140.

Obama has made 28 recess appointments this year. The White House said Bush had made 23 at this point in his presidency.

Obama has often warned that he is willing to turn to recess appointments to overcome Republican opposition. The White House said the appointees he named Wednesday had their nominations pending for an average of five months.

Several ambassadors to former Soviet republics and Middle Eastern countries were appointed last night.  It's hard to imagine why Republicans would sit on vital ambassadorial confirmations like that, but then again Democrats did delay many of Bush's appointments as well.

It's one of the valid "both sides do it" situations out there.  You would think some sort of Senate reform on the filibuster and secret holds would be welcomed by both sides, but you'd be wrong.

StupidiNews!

Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Last Call

Dennis Kucinich feels like a man with a bullseye on his forehead.  As they say, it's not paranoia if they really are out to get you.

The state of Ohio will lose two congressional seats thanks to the latest U.S. Census figures, and liberal stalwart Dennis Kucinich is worried his seat is on the chopping block.


In an e-mail to supporters Wednesday, the seven-term Democratic congressman and two-time presidential candidate says the Republican-controlled Ohio legislature is likely to eliminate his heavily Democratic Cleveland-area district.

But Kucinich says he’s not just going to stand by while that happens.

“I will not wait until a new Ohio map is produced to begin this crucial discussion of the consequences of congressional redistricting,” writes Kucinich. “I will not wait until the Ohio Legislature produces a new map to start thinking of the options. The question will not be: Who is my opponent? The question will be: Where is my district? Seriously.”

If Ohio was going to lose only one district, I figured Kucinich would actually be okay.  (First target would actually be Tim Ryan in OH-17), but with two going, Kucinich's digs will be folded into Marcia Fudge's heavily urban Cleveland district, OH-11 and you have to figure Betty Sutton and Tim Ryan will see theirs folded together too.

No doubt in my mind that Ohio will get rid of two Democrats, and phasing out Kucinich would be a big symbolic head to collect.

Turn On The Lights, Watch The Roaches Scatter, Part 54

Today's Foreclosuregate story comes from Barry Ritholtz.

In one of the more bizarre foreclosure cases, Bank of America is threatening to throw a West Hartford family out of their home even though the couple never missed a mortgage payment.
The largest bank in the United States earlier this month notified Shock Baitch and his wife Lisa (Friedman) Baitch that foreclosure action will start today – Christmas eve – unless the couple agrees to put their home up for a forced sale.
Why? Because another unit of Bank of America erroneously reported to credit agencies that the family was seeking a loan modification, ruining their credit rating and as the result putting their mortgage into default.
All this is happening even though the bank – after admitting it erred and sent a letter of apology in September – handed this case to a special unit at Bank of America that is charged with dealing with severe customer issues. It promised to notify the credit reporting agencies that the couple were not deadbeats, but were good credit risks.

This is the nightmare scenario for both the banks and for mortgage holders.  Banks foreclosing on people on Christmas Eve because the bank can't get their own paperwork straight?  Exactly how many people will that motivate to try to buy or sell a home in 2011?  Would you, knowing that foreclosure paperwork is so badly fraudulent that a bank will foreclose on somebody who was never even late on a payment?

Barry breaks down the cause of the problem quite effectively:

The obvious answer is the illegal processing of foreclosures. When lawyers, bank executives and there outside contractors are paid to violate the law, the local State Attorney General needs to prosecute these felons. Where Lawyers perjure themselves, swearing they have verified, reviewed and confirmed foreclosure files they never so much have looked at, they need to be disbarred.

Its called the rule of law, and its long past time we actually enforced it.

The legal and economic chain reaction from Foreclosuregate is the number one reason why 2011 is going to be a nightmare year for a whole lot of Americans.  It's always darkest just before it goes pitch black.  No wonder today's third quarter 2010 foreclosure numbers are so dismal.

Newly initiated foreclosures increased to 382,000 in the third quarter, a 31.2 percent jump over the previous quarter and a 3.7 percent rise from a year ago, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Office of Thrift Supervision said in their quarterly mortgage report.

The number of foreclosures in process increased to 1.2 million, a 4.5 percent increase from the second quarter and a 10.1 percent increase from a year ago, according to the regulators. 

The housing depression continues unabated. Gary Shilling now says another 20% housing price drop is in the works by 2012.  If he's right, America is in serious trouble.  You think there'd be a sense of urgency in Washington but...naah.

The Bite Was Worse, Actually

In the New York Times, Michael Shear hails Obama for thanking the Eagles for giving Michael Vick a second chance.  Vick did his time, and this was a public demonstration of forgiveness to those who have paid their debt to society.  It is not clear whether Obama knew his words would be published (though I'm sure he realized the likelihood).  The article praises Obama for speaking up on social issues, even awkward ones that may not benefit him.  I agree that this is a good thing, and Obama did it in a way that did not trivialize the seriousness of Vick's crimes, but focused on the positive.

Let me be perfectly clear when I say I am an animal lover.  I've sacrificed to feed and heal animals who have been mistreated.  My husband lovingly refers to our property as "Bambi's hideout" because I feed squirrels and birds, and make sure the bunnies have food in the winter.  I felt sick to my stomach when I watched Vick's half-assed-at-best "apology" before he was sentenced to do time.  But when he came out, he was different. Not a changed man, no complete reform or grand awakening.  But he had finally realized the seriousness of his actions, and showed a little humility and compassion in following interviews.  It's hard to tell truth from publicity, but it even appears he has gone above what was required of him to speak out about animal cruelty and make amends.  The self-serving guy who wasn't sorry, just sorry he got caught seemed changed.

Should Vick have a second chance?  Yes.  When you pay your debt, you owe no more.  I'm of the opinion that he owed more, considering the crimes he committed, but I also keep in mind that his crime was in no way relevant to his job.  If he had owned a kennel, it would be different.  Vick is where he should be, and Obama did a good thing for the social stigma of having been in jail, something that touches an astonishing number of families.  PETA will be ticked, and I can't say that I blame them for that.  In the end, this whole situation has shed light on a troubling problem, and I think the publicity from Vick's fall from grace did a lot of good for the cause.  Now Vick gets a second chance.  I hope for his sake that he makes the most of it.

By The Time I Get Out Of Arizona

Looks like Republican Gov. Jan Brewer's immigration law has cost the state hundreds of millions in federal dollars as the state's 2010 Census numbers are far below predictions, meaning less federal money for the Grand Canyon State.

Michael McDonald of George Mason University explains.

The federal government uses these population counts to distribute federal dollars to the states. According to Andrew Reamer at the Brookings Institution, in 2008 the federal government distributed $866.5 billion in funds to the states based on the census population counts. Your state gets its share of the federal pie based on the number of people that are counted by the census. If there were $866.5 billion in funds to disperse in 2010, each person would be worth $2,807 in federal money to your state.

Note that I say "people" not "citizens." This is where Arizona may have lost as much as three-quarters of a billion dollars annually in federal funding. The Arizona state government could have easily put this money to good use, as according to the New York Times, the state faced a $2.6 billion shortfall in fiscal year 2011.

I come to this conclusion by comparing what the Census Bureau expected Arizona's population to be and what it really was -- or at least who was counted. Throughout the decade, the Census Bureau demographers estimate each state's population. The most recent estimates give a sense of what the Census Bureau thought the April 1, 2010, population of Arizona would be.

So, the Census Bureau demographers projected Arizona's population to be 6,668,079 but the actual number was 6,392,017 or 276,062 fewer people than what the Census Bureau expected to find. This was the largest shortfall of any state in absolute numbers. Since Arizona is a mid-sized state, as a percentage of the population this shortfall was nearly twice that of the next nearest state, Georgia.

So why was the Census Bureau wrong? Or were they wrong? It is not unreasonable to surmise one of two things were contributing factors: Either Arizona's undocumented population did not want to stick around in the state or they did not think it was wise to fill out a government form -- even if their confidentiality is strictly guarded by the U.S. Census Bureau. If the shortfall was due to the latter, then at $2,708 a person, Arizona lost out on $775 million in federal grants per year.

Arizona's Census estimates were short by more than twice any other state?  Seems to me the state just found out the price for driving people away with an odious, draconian law.  And considering Arizona's $2.6 billion budget hole, well this is bad, bad news.

So who's going to pay the price for Arizona's immigration law?  Arizona taxpayers just lost $120 in federal dollars per person.

How's that "tough law" working out for you guys now?

Dreams Of A Moose Cut Loose

From the Well Duh department:


Washington (CNN) – As the start of the next presidential campaign nears, a new national poll suggests that President Barack Obama's tax-cut compromise with congressional Republicans did not hurt his standing among Democrats, while former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin may be dropping in the eyes of Republicans.


To which I can only say hallelujah, there is a glimmer of hope for us, ladies and gentlemen.  Obama is miles from perfect, but he's accomplished a hell of a lot in his time in office.  Palin is a quacking, evil little troll whose popularity depends on spin doctors and controlled interviews.


And by God, some people can see the difference.

Five. Five Dollar. Five Dollar Gas Bomb.

Former Shell Oil exec John Hofmeister is warning of $5 a gallon gas before the next Presidential election.

"I'm predicting actually the worst outcome over the next two years which takes us to 2012 with higher gasoline prices," John Hofmeister said in a recent interview with Platts Energy Week television.

Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst with Oil Price Information Service, agreed that Americans would see $5 a gallon gas but told CNN that he did not believe it would happen in 2012. "That wolf is out there and it's going to be at the door...I agree with him that we'll see those numbers at some point this decade but not yet."

"The demand is still sluggish enough in some of the mature economies," he said.

Hofmeister also predicted that demand would outstrip supply before the end of the decade.

"When supplies run low and the demand is still high, many areas will start to run out, with gas stations having no supplies," World News Insight observed. "Ultimately rationing could then come into force. We could be looking at a return to the 1970's."

Scary stuff, but personally all I think $5 gas would do is lead directly to another economic crash.  It's no coincidence that $4.25 gas in July 2008 preceded the September 2008 meltdown by a matter of just months.  High gas prices took out billions from disposable income, which had a major ripple effect.  We're starting to see that same bubble build up again.  Granted, to get to $5 gas around here in the Cincy area, we'd have to see oil hit $175 a barrel or so.  Still, gas and oil prices have only gone up this winter, topping $90 a barrel on the way to $100.

We'll see where this goes.

The Future Of Israel

The Atlantic's Jeffrey Goldberg explores the endgame of the current political position of Israel towards Palestine, where a two-state solution is unacceptable.  What happens to the Palestinians absorbed by Israel's expansion into the West Bank and other areas?

Is it actually possible that one day Israelis -- Jewish Israelis -- would choose to give up democracy in order to maintain Israel's Jewish voting majority? Some people, of course, argue that Israel has ceased to be a democracy, because there is nothing temporary about the 43-year-old occupation of the West Bank. I believe it is premature to talk about the end of Israel as a democratic state -- mainly because the disposition of the West Bank is still undecided --  but I can't say that the thought hasn't crossed my mind that one day Israelis will make the conscious, active decision to preserve the state's Jewish character instead of its democratic character (I use the word "Jewish" in the demographic sense, not the moral sense, obviously).

As I wrote last week, there's very little Israel's right-wing government has done in the past year or so to suggest that it is willing to wean itself from its addiction to West Bank settlements, and the expansion of settlements bodes ill for the creation of a Palestinian state -- and the absence of Palestinian statehood means that Israel will one day soon confront this crucial question concerning its democratic nature: Will it grant West Bank Arabs the right to vote, or will it deny them the vote? If it grants them the vote, this will be the end of Israel as a Jewish state; if it denies them the vote in perpetuity, it will cease to be a democratic state.

The fact that anyone in the Village is even asking this question is something of a revelation.   It's such a basic, simple question that nobody bothers to ask it.  What democratic rights do Palestinians have in Israel?  If Israel refuses to even consider a two-state solution, then what of those rights?  Goldberg goes on to say that he believes that Israel will continue down this path, and may even declare that Palestinians are citizens of Jordan, and can vote there.

But for the life of me, I can't remember when any columnist in an American magazine actively questioned Israel's democratic future.  Commentary's Alana Goodman dismisses Goldberg's concerns about Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, rumored to be Israel's next hard-line PM.

Say what you will about Lieberman but, actually, his position has always been that some Arab towns and villages that are part of Israel should be given to a Palestinian state while Jewish settlement blocs are annexed to Israel. That may not be what the Palestinians want or even what many Israelis want but the outcome Lieberman desires would be a democratic and Jewish state.

Which would be true, but again, that would involve the creation of a Palestinian state.  So far, that hasn't happened.  And I don't see it happening anytime soon, either.

StupidiNews!

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