Greek Fire, Part 49

After months of meetings, it appears European leaders finally have an agreement on bailouts and a permanent EU facility fund, Reuters reports...and it will include a balanced budget for all Eurozone countries.  But the question of Greece is still very much up in the air.

Negotiations between the Greek government and private bondholders over the restructuring of 200 billion euros of Greek debt made progress over the weekend, but are not expected to conclude before the summit begins at 9:00 a.m. EST.

Until there is a deal between Greece and its private bondholders, EU leaders cannot move forward with a second, 130 billion euro rescue program for Athens, which they originally agreed to at a summit last October.

Instead, they will sign a treaty creating the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), a 500-billion-euro permanent bailout fund that is due to become operational in July, a year earlier than first planned. And they are likely to agree the terms of a 'fiscal treaty' tightening budget rules for those that sign up.

The larger issue of course is the balanced budget requirement.  This means that the individual Eurozone countries would have to give up individual sovereign budget control to the EU in order to meet the new rules.  And of course the first country that everyone wants to cede budgetary control to the EU is Greece.

Greece must surrender control of its budget policy to outside institutions if it cannot implement reforms attached to euro zone rescue measures, the German economy minister was quoted as saying on Sunday.

Philipp Roesler became the first German cabinet member to openly endorse a proposal for Greece to surrender budget control after Reuters quoted a European source on Friday as saying Berlin wants Athens to give up budget control.

"We need more leadership and monitoring when it comes to implementing the reform course," Roesler, also vice chancellor, told Bild newspaper, according to an advance of an interview to be published on Monday.

And if you think Greece is the only country that will have to give up control of their budget to the EU, you haven't been paying attention.  The Greek Fire is unquenchable, and it may burn through the fiscal sovereignty of the entire eurozone before it's done.

StupidiNews!

• With an aging population and an extremely low birthrate on top of the effects from the Fukushima nuclear disaster, Japan's population in 2060 may drop by 30%.
• After losing a recall election, former Arizona state Senator and immigration bill architect Russell Pearce has been elected vice-chairman of the state's Republican party.
• Charlotte-based Shaw Power Group will be the first company to build nuclear power plants in the US in over 30 years as they prepare to build in SC and GA.
• Spain's 4th quarter GDP shrank by 0.3%, raising the possibility that the country will enter its second recession in 3 years.
• A pro-Syrian hacker group supporting the Assad regime has attacked Al Jazeera's news website twice now in protest of the network's coverage of the Syrian uprising.

Last Call

In all seriousness, if you still actually believe that Ron Paul was somehow unaware of the awful racist things being said in his own newsletter, you deserve the grifting you get from people like him.

The Republican presidential candidate has denied writing inflammatory passages in the pamphlets from the 1990s and said recently that he did not read them at the time or for years afterward. Numerous colleagues said he does not hold racist views.

But people close to Paul’s operations said he was deeply involved in the company that produced the newsletters, Ron Paul & Associates, and closely monitored its operations, signing off on articles and speaking to staff members virtually every day.

“It was his newsletter, and it was under his name, so he always got to see the final product. . . . He would proof it,’’ said Renae Hathway, a former secretary in Paul’s company and a supporter of the Texas congressman’s.

The newsletters point to a rarely seen and somewhat opaque side of Paul, who has surprised the political community by becoming an important factor in the Republican race. The candidate, who has presented himself as a kindly doctor and political truth teller, declined in a recent debate to release his tax returns, joking that he would be “embarrassed” about his income compared with that of his richer GOP rivals.

Yet a review of his enterprises reveals a sharp-eyed businessman who for nearly two decades oversaw the company and a nonprofit foundation, intertwining them with his political career. The newsletters, which were launched in the mid-1980s and bore such names as the Ron Paul Survival Report, were produced by a company Paul dissolved in 2001.

He's a snake oil salesman just like the rest of them.  And like every other hack, huckster, cheat and thief, his message is tailored to the gullible and those who want to believe.  Whether or not Ron Paul actually believes that racist nonsense isn't the point: the point is he was willing to use it in order to reach a particular demographic of people who did, and he purposefully sought their political and financial support in order to win.

That makes him a complete scumbag in my book.  Period, point blank.  He traded on the politics of hate for years.  The 2012 race was made for him, and lo and behold, he's getting enough attention now to be considered a threat.  He's either a liar willing to push racism and bigotry as a fundraising tool, or he actually believes this foul idiocy.  I'm not sure which one is worse overall, because either way the poison he's infected this race with will ravage the body politic for a long, long time.

There is nothing that Ron Paul can possibly say that qualifies as "a good point" while he's pushing garbage like this.  And if he is saying things that you believe America needs to hear, then you had better find another messenger than this fool, because American will rightfully never take that message seriously as long as Ron Paul is the voice of that message, and with ample cause.  He's too tainted.  End of story.

Weezing The Juice

Orange Julius begins the 2012 election year hostage-taking in earnest by playing Keystone XL Or Nothing with the next round of jobs and infrastructure legislation, including the payroll tax cut that will expire next month.

House GOP leaders are preparing to release a top Boehner priority: Legislation that would generate revenue for improving the nation’s aging infrastructure through expanding domestic energy production.

“If it’s not enacted before we take up the American Energy and Infrastructure Jobs Act, it’ll be part of it,” Boehner said of the Keystone pipeline bill on ABC’s “This Week.”

Some Republicans also want the Keystone pipeline to be part of a final deal to extend the payroll tax cut and unemployment benefits. Democratic leaders oppose its inclusion, and a Boehner spokesman said that would be decided by members of the House-Senate conference committee.

On the payroll tax, Boehner said he was “confident that we’ll be able to resolve this fairly quickly.” The tax cut and unemployment benefits expire at the end of February.

The message is clear:  Boehner and his energy company cronies will get the pipeline, or middle-class America gets a spear to the guts during an election year.  Why is the Keystone XL pipeline Orange Julius's hill to die on?  Perhaps it's because the House Speaker has substantial investments in several Canadian tar sands firms that would greatly benefit from the deal, and Boehner will directly benefit from it if it's passed.  And by doing so, he may have broken SEC rules by lying about the numbers:

It is an ethics violation for elected officials to use their political office to perform official acts on behalf of special interests, and particularly when special interests are campaign donors. There is also a serious problem when a sitting congressional representative performs official acts for personal financial profit by promoting a project the representative has a financial stake in. The problem becomes egregious when the elected official lies about a project to profit himself and campaign donors and our current Speaker of the House has taken those issues a step farther. On Thursday, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) received a complaint from an environmental group with accusations that the proposed Keystone XL pipeline’s owners (TransCanada) are in violation of SEC Rule 10b(5) – Employment of Manipulative and Deceptive Practices to bolster stock prices.

The complaint sent to the SEC said TransCanada is using “false or misleading statements about the proposed Keystone XL pipeline” and that they “consistently used public statements and information it knows are false in a concerted effort to secure permitting approval of Keystone XL from the U.S. government.” The complaint continues that the fallacious information misleads investors, U.S. and Canadian officials, the media, and the public “in order to bolster its balance sheets and share price,” and who is the point-man pushing the Keystone XL pipeline with lies and misinformation? Speaker of the House John Boehner.

Republicans, including Boehner, have greatly inflated the jobs numbers that the pipeline would create.  The actual number of permanent jobs created as determined by the State Department?  Twenty.  Not twenty thousand.  Twenty.  The share price of those companies went up because the Republicans made false statements, and Boehner will profit personally if the project is approved.

You don't get much more crooked than that.

And so it begins again.

GOP Gets That Poll-Asked Look Again

The latest NBC/Marist poll in Florida this weekend finds Mitt Romney up big over Newt Gingrich now, 42%-27%.  That's not the big news.  This is, buried at the ass end of the article:

Romney and rest of the candidates, however, continue to trail President Obama in Florida among all voters. Romney does best, but loses 49-41 percent, a point worse than a month ago.

As in the latest NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll, Gingrich fares the worst of the entire GOP field against Obama, worse even than Santorum or Paul. Obama beats Gingrich, 52-35 percent, a five-point wider advantage for Obama from December.

Obama, whose approval rating in Florida is 46 percent, has a lead over Romney, in large part, because of independents. Independents sided overwhelmingly with the president -- 50-36 percent over Romney, and by 20 points or more over Gingrich, Santorum and Paul.

And everyone on Earth should have seen this coming.  The longer and uglier the GOP primary becomes, and the further Mitt Romney has to pivot to the right during the primary season, the more independent voters he'll lose in the general. 

Another reason that POTUS is leading in Florida is Gov. Rick Scott.  Independents are utterly furious with him and that's reflected in that general independent disgust with all four GOP candidates.  The same scenario is playing out in the other two big traditional swing states, Ohio with John Kasich, and to a lesser extent, Tom Corbett in Pennsylvania.

And yes, ten months is a universe in political time, but the seeds for the GOP defeat in November are being planted now by Romney trying to out-wingnut the wingnuts.

StupidiNews! WTH Edition

This one got me.  I really thought this story was going to go in a different direction, and was so surprised that I had to sit and just think this one through.

You have a mother in Portland, Oregon.  She had a child in a carriage, and somehow a scene broke out in which kids were kicking her carriage and an eleven-year-old boy flashed a gun at her.  She froze and then backed away, and he did not draw the gun.  Her quote was a little fuzzy, and I was really prepared to hear that it was a water gun, or some Harry Potter paraphernalia.  Maybe even a cell phone.

But no.  The cops caught him with her cooperation and the boy had a loaded gun.  On a public train.  Pointed at a mother and her infant.  Another member of this gang had a BB gun.

What.  The.  Hell.

The boy faces six charges, and will be held over the weekend.  There is no statement about his parents, or information on where the gun came from.  That's upsetting on so many levels.  I'm sure more will come out, of course expect an update.

Teaching Compassion: Epic Fail

Charter schools accept public money but are not subject to all the regulations of public schools.  For example, they are allowed to enforce a dress code that is meant to ensure a clean and groomed student body, but is backfiring in this particular case.  As I go on, please know I understand the school has the right to make those decisions.  I'm pointing out why this case is important and achievable with concessions from both sides.

J.T. Gaskins is 17 years old, but he is lucky to be alive.  He has survived leukemia, and has fought cancer repeatedly for most of his life.  He has been the recipient of charities, including Make A Wish.  He has seen firsthand how much gifts and caring can change lives.  Therefore, when he found out a friend's sister has cancer he was inspired to give something of himself, literally.  Graced with beautiful brown locks, he has decided to grow his hair out and donate to Locks of Love.

Except his school has a policy about hair length, and because his is past his collar he has been suspended.

The school has the right to enforce this, but is that the right way to handle it?  This is an act of giving, and could be a great thing after parents sign a pledge that kids will donate the hair and showing proof of donation.  The reality is, Locks of Love is pretty awesome.  I am growing my hair out to do the same thing, so I admit I am biased towards the charity.  We're talking about teaching kids the gift of giving, and this is a lesson that should be encouraged.  If parents vouch for it, you have to hope they will make sure their children honor their word.

The school doesn't have to.  But they could, and in my teeny little opinion, they should.

Sex And The Cindy

It seems Cynthia Nixon has ruffled feathers by saying she chose to be gay.  I don't get the backlash.  There are many ways to be straight, there surely must be many ways to be gay.  I have known people who would easily fall into either class.  When it comes to a group so large and diverse, it's safe to say there are no blanket rules.


Nixon's reply was awesome:

"I understand that for many people it's not, but for me it's a choice, and you don't get to define my gayness for me," Nixon said while recounting some of the flak gay rights activists previously had given her for treading in similar territory. "A certain section of our community is very concerned that it not be seen as a choice, because if it's a choice, then we could opt out. I say it doesn't matter if we flew here or we swam here, it matters that we are here and we are one group and let us stop trying to make a litmus test for who is considered gay and who is not."

This doesn't make it right to claim that all gay men and women choose to be gay.  It doesn't make it right to claim that it's always genetic or physically rooted.  She rightfully gets to tell her truth and contribute towards the understanding of who she is.  This doesn't lessen the stupidity of those who think there is a "cure"or that being gay is a disease that could / should be fixed.  Stifling truth is never right, that I know.  


It's important the gay community pull together and support the larger cause.  For example, education that is honest and says that you don't have to fit a certain criteria to be considered "really" gay.  It is unfair to deny that people can choose their lifestyle, and is equally asinine to deny homosexuality may involve a genetic or physical component.  The two may coincide, where a genetic predisposition comes down to environment and choice, another version of nature vs. nurture.  What is obvious is that the squabbling isn't helping anyone, and may even be an obstacle for learning more and understanding this growing segment of our population.

The Sport Of Kings

In case you missed it (and if you were in the US, you did) Novak Djokovic just outslugged Rafael Nadal in a six hour record-setting Australian Open final.  When these two get together in a Grand Slam final, and they have now three times in a row stretching back to last year's Wimbeldon and US Open, some of the best tennis in history has been made.

Djokovic proved once again why he's the world number 1, as he's beaten Nadal now seven straight times to win a tournament final.  But this relationship has already eclipsed Courier-Sampras, Agassi-Becker and Roddick-Federer and I dare say the two of them are now well-ensconced in McEnroe-Connors territory, mainly because McEnroe and Connors played their best matches not against each other (but Bjorn Borg and Ivan Lendl, respectively.)  These two prove time and time again when they meet in a Grand Slam that magic will happen.

What really gives these two the staying power in Great Men's Tennis Rivalry History is compared to the rest of men's tennis right now, the two of them are on a level utterly dominant and by themselves.  We've come to expect Djokovic-Nadal in the finals now, and we expect Djokovic to win.  To really take this to the next level however, Rafa is going to have to get the better of the Djoker one of these days.

It'll happen one day.  But it may take until the French Open, where Nadal has been dominant on clay.  We'll see.

Last Call

AT&T is still acting like a spoiled brat over the failed T-Mobile merger.  They are still taking shots at the Department of Justice and FCC, and in general bringing about some bad press with their whining and moaning.  The truth is, they were stupid to put up the earnest money for the deal, and their display of (over)confidence backfired in a most ugly way.

So why are they insisting on making it worse?

AT&T CEO Randall Stephenson spoke of higher rates and more restrictions on data users.  The FCC did its job, and protected the market.  AT&T got caught being shady a couple of times, and it cost them dearly.  The failure was not the FCC's fault.  And it sure as hell isn't the fault of the customers, who pay for a service and expect to receive what they pay for.  Stephenson pretty much said tough luck to the customers, they are going to foot the bill for the failed deal.  As contracts expire, T-Mobile may come out a winner after all.  When AT&T starts putting the squeeze on aggravated customers, the more affordable T-Mobile will attract many customers.  Sprint will win over the power users who can't bear throttling.

Like many industry dinosaurs, AT&T may be taking themselves a bit too seriously.  With competition ready to snap up customers, they are doing little to improve their service.  In fact, they're pissing people off in large numbers.

A Texas-Sized Surrender

Now this is very good news if it plays out the way The Hill seems to think it will:  Texas Republicans are basically looking to settle their redistricting case with the DoJ, which would have to include approval by the minority representation groups that are the plaintiffs, that would give the state a number of new districts that would be won by Dems.

“They’re backed up against the wall and have to come to some agreement and it’ll be awfully favorable on our end,” said one of the plaintiffs in the case.

Another plaintiff agreed.  “It’s clear they know they’re in a vulnerable position and that’s why they want to settle,” he said.

Any settlement would need to get the multiple minority group plaintiffs on board, and would create more majority-Hispanic and majority-African American congressional districts. Two of the plaintiffs predicted that an agreement will be reached early next week.

That's pretty much a massive capitulation by Republicans in the state, who purposely drew the four new districts in the state legislature to favor Republicans precisely by splitting Latino and African-American neighborhoods across district lines and using pencil thin lines to connect them to overwhelmingly red districts, assuring that at least three of the four new districts would be safe GOP seats for the next decade. 

But the DoJ gets ultimate veto power over this sort of thing for states like Texas, and that decision by a three-judge panel is expected soon.  Texas Republicans are apparently so terrified of this that (especially after the Supreme Court punted the map back to Texas to work it out as a state issue) they are begging for a settlement before the DoJ takes them out back with a two by four and a grim expression.

If the state of Texas and the plaintiffs in the case reach an agreement it would solve a drawn out process with two separate lower court battles and a Supreme Court opinion already on the books.

Texas is gaining four seats in Congress and will have 36 total House seats next election.  Most of the state’s population growth has come from African Americans and Hispanics, but the Republican state legislators who drew the maps gave the groups few new opportunities in the state. 

Any agreement would lead to a minimum of 13 Democratic-leaning seats, and possibly a fourteenth seat depending on how the districts in Fort Worth are drawn.

With conservative former Rep. Nick Lampson (D-Texas) running for a Galveston-area seat, Democrats could win as many as 14 or 15 seats in the state, up from the nine seats they currently hold. Republicans would hold 21 or 22 seats, down from the 23 they currently have.

Dems picking up 5 to 6 House seats in Texas would go a long, long way towards regaining the House in 2012.  Republicans know this and they're looking to settle anyway, which shows you just how bad they think their position is in respect to the three-judge pre-clearance panel.

On the other hand, the districts that Texas is gaining is coming at the expense of states like Ohio and New York, and ultimately one of the reasons that I think the GOP is looking to take the settlement here is that they know redistricting Dem districts out of existence in other states they control like Missouri and Louisiana (and in Ohio especially) will make Texas into a wash at best for the Donks, especially given that GOP-controlled SC and Georgia are getting a new district and Florida two.  They were going for all the marbles in the redistricting pile, and they'll have to settle for merely half as a losing proposition, which was the point of the entire exercise given the level of state control handed to the GOP in 2010.

And once again we come back to the fact that voters picked a really awful time to give the Republicans more power by deciding President Obama and the Dems hadn't moved fast enough in Operation Ponycorn With Sprinkles.  The repercussions of that nonsense will be felt for, well, a decade.

War On Privacy: Where We Stand

Don't get me wrong  the CNN piece you can find here does a great job of covering privacy concerns.  It's well written and square on all counts.

But not to toot our own horn or anything, we've covered 99% of it right here already on Zandar VTS.

We are losing our rights to electronic privacy.  Ambiguous laws and fear tactics have cost us many levels of privacy.  There is a pressure on some services to comply, such as phone companies and Internet providers.  Well, there was right up until they were absolved of all repercussions for complying with a government order.  Now they have no fear of customer reaction, if those customers are even notified.  Right now, we are in danger from our own government thanks to the Patriot Act.  We can be snooped without a warrant, and our correspondence is monitored without or knowledge.

Most of what we do know is thanks to whistle-blowers, activists, academics and a few committed journalists. In 2004, Mark Klein, a technician who had just retired from AT&T, disclosed that in 2003 the National Security Agency built a secret room at the San Francisco facility where he worked, routing all e-mail and phone traffic through it.

Another whistle-blower, Justice Department attorney Thomas Tamm, confirmed that similar interception points were set up around the country to gather and analyze the e-mails and phone calls of Americans who were not suspected of any crime.

While the federal government is required by law to document publicly its wiretapping of phone lines, it is not required to do so with Internet communications. Over 50,000 National Security Letters, a kind of administrative demand letter requiring no probable cause or judicial oversight, are issued each year. Yet we know few details. Companies complying with these secret letters were barred from even informing customers about them until 2009 when Nick Merrill, an entrepreneur who ran a small New York-based Internet service company, successfully enlisted the help of the ACLU in challenging a blanket gag provision of the Patriot Act.

Please read the rest of this article. There is so much information here that we can't afford to forget. My prayer is that Obama made a good choice to put off some battles until his second term, when he can right some serious wrongs (like the Patriot Act).

One final portrait of why Google users should be concerned.  Google can't be held accountable if the government decided to snoop your email.  But it doesn't stop there.  Now they can see your text messages and call logs if you use Google Voice.  Your work can be checked if you use Google Docs. Your pictures through Google+ and Picasa.  Your GPS location if you use Google Maps or Latitude.  Your website information and hidden content can be viewed, including past versions, if you use Google Sites.  Your shopping habits, books you're reading, searches you are running, blogs you are writing, instant messaging and social activities can all be monitored through common Google services.  You can't opt out of this, and once that precedent is set it will fall rapidly across other service providers.  You still don't have to be alerted to the fact, and you can't even be pissed about it until you can prove you were snooped, which you can't.

Well, played, old chap.  Well played.

Don't you move mother f*****, I will shoot you!

A criminal on the run took a shortcut through Karen Granville's yard.  And he is very, very sorry he did that.

The 64-year-old woman loves John Wayne and has a permit to carry a concealed weapon.  The criminal was surprised to find himself looking down the barrel of her gun while she barked, "Don't you move, motherfucker!  I will shoot you!  I will shoot you where you stand!"  As the criminal moved and wiggled, she held the trigger steady and detained him until the police caught up with him.

This week has taught me a whole new respect for grandmas.  Thank you ladies, for keeping us safe.

Jim Pethokoukis And The Temple Of Doom

Having been booted from both US News and World Report and Reuters, my favorite econ blogger punching bag Jim Pethokoukis has given up any pretense of being balanced and credible and is now working directly for the right-wing Death Star of financial think tanks, the American Enterprise Institute.  And as usual, he's heralding the end of the Obama presidency.

In his State of the Union response the other night, Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels neatly summed up Mitt Romney’s (who has a roughly 90 percent chance of being the GOP nominee according to Intrade) economic case against President Barack Obama: “The president did not cause the economic and fiscal crises that continue in America tonight, but he was elected on a promise to fix them, and he cannot claim that the last three years have made things anything but worse.”

In other words, the Obama Recovery stinks. Even if today’s GDP report—for the fourth quarter of 2011—shows 3 percent growth or better, it would be just the fourth time that has happened since the economy began turning up in June 2009: 3.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009, 3.9 percent in the first quarter of 2010, and 3.8 percent in the second quarter of 2010. But no 3 percent-plus quarters since then.

The first nine quarters of the Reagan Recovery, by contrast, looked like this:  5.1 percent, 9.3 percent, 8.1 percent, 8.5 percent, 8.0 percent, 7.1 percent, 3.9 percent, 3.3 percent, 3.8, percent, 3.4 percent. In fact, the Reagan Boom went from the first quarter of 1983 until the second quarter of 1986 without notching a sub-3 percent GDP quarter.

Fourth quarter numbers came in Friday at 2.8% growth.  But here's what we weren't doing during the Reagan years:  fighting two wars in the Middle East, keeping the top marginal tax rate at 35%, paying a trillion-dollar plus prescription drug benefit to Big Pharma, and paying a multi-trillion dollar bailout to banks in the US and around the world.  Considering what this President has inherited, the fact that we're still even having positive GDP growth is astounding.

Meanwhile Republicans want to cut, cut, cut federal spending.  Looking at what austerity cuts have done to Spain's unemployment rate -- now at a staggering 22.9% -- does anyone actually think Republicans will follow through on such a plan knowing full well what it will do to the economy here and the politics it means?

Then again, that explains all the laws disenfranchising poor voters, doesn't it?

StupidiNews, Weekend Edition!

• Arrests have been made in the UK of News International employees on charges of payments to police in the company's far-reaching wiretapping scandal.
• An asteroid the size of a school bus missed the Earth by a mere 60,000 miles Friday, or "one of the top 20 closest misses" of astronomical objects in NASA history.
• State Democrats in California's Senate failed to pass a single payer coverage health care bill as several Dems sat out the vote and one joined Republicans against the measure.
• President Obama once again says he will press House Democrats to lower tax breaks for the rich as the Bush tax cuts will expire at the end of the year.
• Nintendo wants to make online purchases of games a lot easier on its coming successor to the Wii console.