Mind The Gender Gap, Lads

The latest Quinnipiac national poll finds President Obama up four, but again the crosstabs are where the meat is at.  Romney has a healthy ten-point lead among men right now...but President Obama is up eighteen points among women voters.

American likely voters say 60 - 25 percent that the federal government would make progress addressing the nation's problems if one party controls the White House, the Senate and the House of Representatives.

Voters dislike the Democratic Party less than they dislike the Republican Party, giving the Democrats a negative 45 - 49 percent favorability rating, compared to a negative 41 - 52 percent for the Republicans.

"President Barack Obama won only about 43 percent of the white vote in 2008, so his current standing among whites tracks his earlier winning performance," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "If the president can match or exceed his 2008 showing among whites it will be difficult to impossible for Romney to win.

"It is also very difficult to win an election when you are getting shellacked among women, the group that makes up about half the electorate."

"Historically, voters have preferred divided government in the belief that one side can keep the other in line, but these numbers may indicate that the public is fed up with gridlock in Washington," said Brown.

Imagine that.  Americans are sick of gridlock and a do-nothing Congress blocked by Republicans, President Obama is doing just as well among white voters as he did four years ago, and people prefer Democrats to Republicans.

But the polls are skeeeeeeeeeeeeewed.

Please.

Iran Through The Fire And Flames

That loud imploding noise you heard over the last week or so was Iran's currency, the rial, going KA-BOOM as US and EU sanctions on Iranian oil has all but collapsed Tehran's economy.

The freefall suggests sanctions imposed over Iran's nuclear programme are undermining its ability to earn foreign exchange and that its reserves of hard currency may be running low.

The rial traded at 34,200 per dollar according to currency-tracking website Mazanex, down from about 29,720 on Sunday. It was trading at 24,600 last Monday, according to website Mesghal.

There is no clear sign that economic pain in Iran has reached levels that would prompt the government to compromise on its nuclear programme, which Western nations say aims to develop an atomic bomb but which Tehran insists is peaceful.

However, the currency crisis is exposing President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to criticism from enemies in parliament.

The rial's losses have accelerated in the past week after the government launched an "exchange centre" designed to supply dollars to importers of some basic goods at a special rate slightly cheaper than the market rate.

Instead of allaying fears about the availability of dollars, the centre seems to have intensified the race for hard currency by linking the special rate to the market rate, meaning that even privileged importers will face sharply higher costs.

"The government's initiative ... brought to the surface a tremendous lack of confidence in its ability to manage the currency," said Cliff Kupchan, a Middle East expert at the Eurasia Group, a political risk research firm. "The attempt to fix it triggered a worse crisis via market psychology."

The rial's sinking value will fuel inflation, officially running at about 25 percent; economists estimate the real rate is even higher. Rising costs could worsen the job losses which Iranians say are hitting the country's industrial sector.

We're not quite to Zimbabwe's 100 billion dollar bills yet in Iran, but things are rapidly getting ugly if the rial is losing 20% in value per day like it did on Friday.  The sanctions are going to hurt the people far more than they are going to hurt the mullahs, and what happens next, well we get into the whole "unpredictable" part of the probability tables.

Imagine if you will that since your last paycheck two weeks ago, the price of food, gas, basic supplies all more or less doubled.  Imagine that the speed of that doubling is picking up pace and that prices will double again next week, then in 4 days, then in 2, then 1.  That's hyperinflation, and that's Iran right now.  Needless to say, the danger level in a situation like that is pretty awfully high.

Is this America's "October Surprise"?  We're about to find out.

A Special Kind Of Stupid

Scary rides push physics to the limit.  If you are not smart enough to calculate the physics involved, please be smart enough to follow the directions of those who can.  Simple enough, no?

VALENCIA, CALIF.A man who fell off the tallest enclosed water slide in California has "miraculously" survived with no broken bones or internal injuries, according to the L.A. County Sheriff's department.

CBS station KCBS-TV in Los Angeles reported that an unidentified 19-year-old man was rushed to the hospital after falling off the Venom Drop at Six Flags Hurricane Harbor. The 75-foot tall water slide is one of the three slides at Black Snake Summit, and allows riders to "take a virtually vertical plunge, almost 90 degrees to the ground," according to the official description. The man was about halfway down the slide when he fell off and hit the concrete, Six Flags spokesperson Sue Carpenter said.

He went head-first, and derailed enough to land on the concrete.  My father used to say God favored stupid people and drunks, and I'll be darned if that hasn't panned out more often than not.  This stupid man could have died, and instead walked away with no major injuries.  Not a broken bone, no complications.

So I'm jealous.  The last time I took a wrong step I was using a cane for six weeks.  I'm also terrified of water rides, because I don't trust the variables.  This pretty much confirms that I'll never be riding anything scarier than the Lazy River.  Besides a great spider invasion, this pretty much tops my list of terrifying scenarios.

If I could tell this young man anything, I'd spin a web and tell him in my best
 Spider-Man voice, "everybody gets one."

Cops Chase Semi Truck In "You Might Be A Redneck" Moment

OZARK, Mo. -- The driver of a semi-tractor is charged with assaulting a law enforcement officer after a 20-mile southbound chase, much of it in the northbound lanes of U.S. 65, on Sunday night.  Jesse DeJongh, 18, was arrested early Monday, several hours after officers say he crashed his truck in southern Christian County and fled into the woods.

Greene County sheriff’s deputies started chasing DeJongh’s truck on U.S. 65 after employees of Hood’s Truck Stop near Bois D’Arc said he drove off with about $700 worth of stolen fuel.

This guy has "idiot" all over him.  After taking off with $710 in gas, he is followed by a regular who kept cops up to date (you might be a redneck).  At some point he has a conversation with the truck driver, who says he will go back and pay but doesn't, resulting in a chase down Highway 65.  Which is a really really busy highway for those of you who don't know this area.

For you locals: he then goes off on the Evans Road exit!  For the rest of you: that's the curviest, crappiest, most slanted bit of squirrel path that he could have chosen.  The miracle here is that he didn't kill anyone, himself included.

After a brief run in the woods (you are so a redneck) he was brought in by police.  And we all know the best redneck stories end with a night in the pokey.

Jeff Foxworthy was not on the scene.

A Bloody Milestone

The death of US soldier number 2,000 in Afghanistan happened this weekend, and it looks like another "green on blue" killing.

A possible insider attack has claimed the life of America’s 2,000^th soldier to die in Afghanistan. The shooting reportedly took place Saturday evening in Afghanistan’s volatile Wardak Province at a checkpoint run by the Afghan Army.

While initial reports indicated that the incident was likely an insider attack, international military officials now say insurgent fire may have been involved. The incident left one NATO soldier presumed to be American dead, along with a civilian contractor, and three Afghan soldiers. Afghan and international military authorities are now investigating the incident.

If confirmed as an insider attack, the incident is likely to carry particular significance beyond being the 2,000^th American soldier killed in the nearly 11-year conflict. Though violence has fallen here with US troops seeing consistent drops in fatalities starting last year, the war continues to claim lives and this latest spate of insider killings presents a challenge that has so far eluded US and NATO efforts to solve the problem. 

We still have a long way to go to get out of Afghanistan.  And for countless thousands here in America and abroad, we'll never fully be "out of Afghanistan".

A generation of soldiers will have been to the sandbox.  None came home the same.  Some didn't come home at all.  Something I'll never forgive Dubya and his cadre for, that's for sure.

West Of The Sun, East Of The Moonbat

Rep. Allen West of Florida? Call your office, please. While you still have one, that is.

Firebrand Florida Rep. Allen West is losing his reelection fight by a 9-point margin to Democrat Patrick Murphy, according to a poll taken for the Democratic group House Majority PAC. The survey, taken by the firm Garin-Hart-Yang Research and shared by a source with POLITICO, found Murphy leading West, 52 percent to 43 percent.

But TEH POLLZ ARE TEH SKOOWED and stuff right?

There's reason to take the House Majority PAC poll seriously. Not only is it taken by a gold-plated Democratic pollster, it's also weighted significantly in the GOP direction. The poll sample was composed of 44 percent Republicans and 37 percent Democrats -- a stronger GOP lean than the actual congressional district.

Murphy comes out ahead anyway in the survey thanks to an 18-point lead among independents. His 9-point advantage over West exceeds President Barack Obama's 7-point lead over Romney in the district.

To recap, the poll oversampled Republicans and West is still losing by 9.  Good night, sweet putz. May choirs of pollsters sing thee to thy rest in the private sector.

StupidiNews!

• An Iranian photographer who accompanied President Ahmadinejad to the UN General Assembly last week has defected to the US along with his family.
• A new study finds one in 4 Americans have had their personal information or passwords breached by data thieves.
• Syrian army forces are pushing rebels out of Damascus as troops loyal to the al-Assad regime are coordinating efforts to sweep the city.
• New figures show 93% of income growth in 2010 went straight to the top 1% of income earners as income inequality continues to worsen in the US.
• The White House says it stopped a phishing attack on a government computer system before any data was compromised.

Last Call

So very desperate to bring Fast and Furious to the court of public opinion as the Worst Thing Ever, our Obama-hating friends.

These 57 recovered weapons discovered are in addition to the 122 weapons referenced in a congressional report. It is chilling to learn that each weapon recovered was dumped at the scene of a crime by cartel members who had attempted, and in most cases completed, the crime of first-degree murder. It is even more disturbing to know that American Department of Justice officials knew that most of the weapons walked over the border would only be discarded by the police and recovered by Mexican authorities after they were used in a crime, and that they were indifferent to the body count being racked up, callously noting that to make an omelet, eggs had to be broken.

Concern trolling for Mexico has become our new national sport.  Republicans of course care so very much about countries where people other than Americans get shot.  You know, like Afghanistan.

Ever since Mike Vanderboegh and David Codrea broke the story of Obama administration gun-walking, critics have been noting that this is the biggest, bloodiest scandal in U.S. presidential history.

You know, unlike Iraq.  Both times.

The first presidential debate between embattled President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney will occur Wednesday. You can rest assured the moderator Jim Lehrer will not ask questions about the bloody gun-smuggling plot. It will be interesting to see, however, if Romney himself is willing to bring the scandal out onto a stage so public that even the media can’t ignore it.

The endless persecution of Eric Holder by Darrel Issa as a public part of this election?  Sure.  Let's go with that, Mitt.  Be a winner in the game of life.

This all you guys got?

Victory In War Against Stupidity

(Reuters) - Governor Jerry Brown has signed a bill banning a controversial therapy that aims to reverse homosexuality in minors, his office announced on Sunday, making California the first state to ban a practice many say is psychologically damaging.

The move marked a major victory for gay rights advocates who say so-called conversion therapy, also called reparative therapy, has no medical basis because homosexuality is not a disorder.

Brown said in a short message on Twitter that he supported the bill because it "bans non-scientific 'therapies' that have driven young people to depression and suicide."

The bill's sponsor, state Senator Ted Lieu, a Democrat from Torrance, said the law was a gesture of remembrance for a man who committed suicide after undergoing the therapy.

Seriously, it's about darned time.  It not only sends a message that normal people can love others of the same sex, it shows progress in understanding the truth of homosexuality.

The reality is, this treatment was abusive and terrible in every regard.  It should be banned, and kids should be given time to understand themselves.  They also deserve counseling that doesn't start based on the premise that they are wrong.

Cheers to you, Jerry Brown.

Cellist Biker Plays Unexpected Tunes

This cellist and his drummer tour via bicycle. The video shows them passing the miles with their instruments pulled behind. I can't imagine riding a bike for so long, let alone tugging a drum set uphill, but that's only part of what makes these guys so unusual. Their music defies expectations, in a great and fun way. While he is definitely classically capable, Ben Sollee also plays rhythm and funk on his cello. His bowing is unlike anything I've seen before. If you have a minute, check him out. I think you'll be pleasantly surprised.

Though I'm sure he hates double flats.  Ba-dum-BUM.

 

Disturbing Story Reminds What CAN Go Wrong

This story really upset me, and it may stay with some of you for a while.  But the story of this girl reminds us just what is at stake, and who will pay the price for decisions made by government regarding women's healthcare.

A 14-year-old Florida girl is facing murder charges after police said she admitted to strangling her newborn son and stuffing his body in a shoe box.

The girl gave birth to a gave birth to a 9.5-pound baby boy in the bathroom at her Lakeland, Fla., home on Sept. 19, police said.

The teen, who is 5-foot-3 and weighs 100 pounds, had been wearing baggy clothing to conceal her pregnancy from her family, police said.

When she realized she was giving birth, the girl turned on the bathroom faucet, police said she told them, and placed a towel in her mouth to mute her cries of pain as she delivered the baby.

As the agony of labor increased, police said the girl used scissors to pry the baby into the toilet.

She "lifted the moving infant from the toilet, felt for a pulse, found one, then placed her hands on the infant's neck and squeezed until he wasn't moving or breathing any longer," the Polk County Sheriff's Office said in a statement on Friday.

Please understand, I'm not defending this girl.  I'm simply saying that if we take steps backwards in women's health education and medical rights there will be more like her.  Women and girls who may not have become pregnant if they had access to knowledge and services will be be under incredible pressure, pressure that will crack some of them and lead to tragedies like this.

This was preventable, from beginning to end.  As sad and painful as this was to read, the message is too important to ignore.  We need to teach responsibility and educate kids about sex.  The whole moral debate only leaves girls feeling getting pregnant is for "the other girls" and not them.  That's the whole point of a message we've pushed for decades now: sperm and eggs do their thing regardless of whether you want to become pregnant or not.  I don't know if this girl would have behaved differently if she had known all of her options (for all I know, she did).  I'm just saying the more girls know, the more we can  to trust they will make better choices.  At least we're giving them the tools, the rest is up to them.

Now That Is A Gun Sale

VENTURA, Calif. — A .45-caliber gun once owned by Butch Cassidy has sold at auction in Southern California for $175,000.

A spokesman for the private seller said Sunday that the Colt Single Action Army revolver went to an anonymous online bidder.

The gun is accompanied by a black leather shoulder holster and two binders filled with documentation verifying the revolver's authenticity.

Cassidy, the infamous Old West bank robber, bought the revolver in a hardware store in Vernal, Utah, in 1896. He turned it over to Utah authorities in early 1900 in an unsuccessful attempt to gain amnesty. Known as the "Amnesty Colt," it is the most documented of Cassidy's guns.

Guns that Bonnie and Clyde had in their possession during their final showdown sold for over half a million dollars.  They were part of a collection of over a hundred items, and these two guns alone accounted for nearly half what was brought in.

Perhaps because they have local ties, I have always liked the story of Bonnie and Clyde.  They were ahead of their time, and each was an interesting character in their own right.  Bonnie's gun brought in more, as it saw more action.  It was on her thigh during the final shootout.  She died without drawing it.

Two really neat pieces of history sold to anonymous owners.  I hope they resurface in a museum where we can all enjoy them.

French Toast

Just a reminder that the European debt crisis is still very much in play, despite the ECB buying up unlimited treasuries to keep rates low.  The other half of the plan to "solve" the crisis is crippling austerity, and even the French are protesting that publicly now.

Thousands of left-wing protesters took to the streets of Paris on Sunday to denounce the European Union fiscal pact forcing governments to stick to tough deficit limits.

Chanting “Resistance!”, protesters marched through central Paris in a rally organisers said was aimed at fighting EU-imposed austerity, not at criticising the government of Socialist President Francois Hollande.

“This day is the day the French people launch a movement against the policy of austerity,” one-time presidential contender and Left Front leader Jean-Luc Melenchon said at the march.

Melenchon denied the protest was aimed at Hollande, saying: “This is a left-wing demonstration under a left-wing government.”

Organisers said 80,000 people took part in the rally. “It was very successful, beyond our expectations,” said Annick Coupe, a spokeswoman for the Solidaires union.

Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault is to open what is expected to be a long and difficult debate on the fiscal pact in the National Assembly on Tuesday.

All EU countries are expected to sign a "balance budget amendment" that would limit deficits to half a percentage of GDP.   It would be the American equivalent of deficits no larger than 80 billion or so and having to raise taxes or cut spending immediately, not a decade from now, but now.  And even the French are signing on.

The results will be catastrophic, of course.  EU budgets over the next couple of years will be devastating, and the riots you will see in the next term for the US President, either Obama or Romney, will become the flash point for a lot of things.

Keep in mind this is what the Republicans want here, an opportunity to cut taxes for the rich to nothing and drop the burden on the rest of us who cannot afford to buy House and Senate seats.  Our time is coming very soon unless something changes dramatically in our election system.

Probably not going to happen.  Citizens United all but assures that.

Boiling It Down To Two Choices

If as a liberal, you object to the Obama administration's use of drones, you have that right, as fellow Balloon Juicer Freddie demonstrates:

I don't know how else it say it, considering I've said it a thousand times. I want my country to stop killing innocent people. I want it so bad I don't know how to act or what to do. I want it so bad I can't sit still or sleep at night. I want it with everything I have that's capable of want. And I know that this is the kind of talk that invites pure contempt from those like Tbogg, who have only the idiom of sarcasm and derision and cannot imagine straightforward moral sentiment. But that's the truth. I want my country to stop killing innocent people. And the innocent people we kill the most, these days, are Muslim. And the policy of the Obama administration has expanded the zone in which we kill innocent Muslims, they have shown no interest in stopping killing innocent Muslims, and in fact their campaign constantly brags about the drone program which kills innocent Muslims. That's just true. All of it is just true. Obama is directly responsible for the expansion of hostilities against Muslims targets which result in the death of people who have taken no violent action against the United States. Voting for him cannot, does not, and will not challenge that reality.

So what do you want me to do? Break bread with the establishment liberals, try to reason with them, bring these ideas into the discussion? I've tried. Many have tried. Check a Tbogg comment thread. See what happens to people who criticize the drone program. Try a Balloon Juice thread. Try and insert some anti-drone sentiment into the comments. Believe me, I've tried. The result is total, immediate, and angry dismissal. Always. These ideas are not permitted. For all the talk of "lesser evils," you are far more likely to find conventional liberals defending the drone program than speaking of it as evil at all.

If the use of drones killing innocent civilians is a big enough single-issue to you to abdicate your responsibility to vote when you know that A) President Obama's opponent will expand the drone program even more and B) most likely start a third war, this time with Iran where hundreds of thousands of innocent Muslims will be killed, then I have to right to say that I disagree with your tactics, and that I find your logic to be flawed.

You claim voting for Barack Obama will not change the use of drones.  That's worth a pretty detailed discussion.  But either Barack Obama or Mitt Romney will be President.  Not voting will not change that.  That's not up for discussion, that's simply fact.  Pretending that neither one will be President in January is delusional.  I'll take Obama every time in that situation as a result.

We only get to have the drone discussion about Obama's use of drones if he's still President.  The alternative is Romney.  This is a binary choice here.  Make it.  Don't be a coward and run away from it, or justify your abdication of your responsibility to vote.  Make the choice.

Really is that simple.

StupidiNews!

• A suicide bombing in western Afghanistan has killed 11, including 3 NATO troopers and 4 Afghan police, according to Afghan officials.
• The UN is calling on member states to find ways to deal with an increasingly older world population that could reach two billion over the age of 60 worldwide by 2050.
• Preliminary indications of a body in the search for infamous Teamster Jimmy Hoffa have turned up negative so far as police investigate a nearly 40-year old tip.
• Eurozone unemployment has hit a new record of 11.4% in August as austerity measures and recession continue to take a heavy toll of the economy in the region.
• California Gov. Jerry Brown has signed into law a measure that bans employers from asking for social media account passwords in the nation's most populous state.