Obamacare Isn't Going Anywhere

Josh Marshall makes the case that the battle over Obamacare is done, and the GOP lost.

It's simply too late to undo what happened in March 2010.

To be clear, the program is still trying to make up ground lost in the first blundering two months of the roll out. And the near-term politics for Democrats may still be bad. But all the efforts at sabotage - trying to convince young people not to sign up, trying to scare people that they'd have their identities stolen, trying to prevent so-called 'navigators' from helping people enroll, refusing to set up state-based exchanges, opting out of Medicaid expansion and generally trying to scare the crap out of people with death panels and everything else so they wouldn't sign up. All had one aim: undermine enrollment to force what health care economists call a risk pool death spiral. 

That's when you've got too high a percentage of the old and sick to spread the cost of payouts. Without more young and healthy people, there's no way to effectively spread the risk. Then you have to raise premiums. So the logic of holding coverage is undermined for all but the really,really sick. And pretty soon the whole thing just blows up. 

That was the aim. But it didn't work. Relatively little noticed this week, we got the first look at the demographic breakdown of the first round of sign ups (those through Dec. 28th, 2013). They weren't great. 24% of enrollees were 18 to 34. The administration was and is aiming to have 40% of enrollees in that category. 

But that's not the end of the story. A key Kaiser Foundation study recently found that the key threshold for Obamacare success was 25% of enrollees in that age group. At that number you could have 1% to 2% premium rises. Not great, but not enough to fundamentally break the program and not enough to cause the dreaded 'death spiral.'

Republicans are confident that 2014 will bring a GOP Congress, and 2016 will bring a GOP President, assuring an Obamacare repeal.  I hate to break it to them that by 2016, it's going to be far, far too late.

But let them run on obstruction.

Meanwhile, In West Virginia...

Water, water, everywhere, and not a drop to drink in Charleston.

Area emergency rooms are seeing an influx of patients reporting symptoms related to exposure to chemical-tainted water, despite the fact that West Virginia American Water has deemed water in many areas safe to use. 

Rahul Gupta, health officer for the Kanawha-Charleston Health Department, said 101 patients visited area emergency rooms in the 36-hour span ending at 7 a.m. Wednesday morning, reporting symptoms related to exposure to tainted water. He said 46 of those allegedly water-related emergency room visits occurred between 7 p.m. Tuesday night and 7 a.m. Wednesday morning. 

"What we are seeing when we talk to our partners in hospital systems are people with skin and eye irritation, rashes, nausea, upset stomach and diarrhea," Gupta said. 

All of those symptoms have been connected with exposure to crude MCHM, the chemical that leaked from a Freedom Industries storage tank Thursday into the Elk River, and then into West Virginia American Water's Charleston treatment plant a mile and a half downstream. 

Gupta said many of those patients reported using water that was deemed safe to use by West Virginia American Water. As of Wednesday afternoon, the "do not use" order has been lifted for 51,600 of the 100,000 customers affected by the chemical spill.

So a week later, the water's not safe, it's still making people sick, and who knows when it will actually be safe again.  Try thinking about going a week without water.  Would you be able to buy, purify, or get enough fresh water for a week for a family?  Would you even be able to purify it with this awful chemical in it?

But let's loosen regulations, right?  That's surely the answer.

StupidiNews!

• Ohio will become the first state to use a new two-drug solution for a lethal injection execution of a convicted death row inmate on Thursday.
• The US Supreme Court heard arguments Wednesday over a Massachusetts law designed to create "free speech buffer zones" for protesters at abortion clinics.
• Charter Communications and NBC parent company Comcast are looking to jointly make a deal to buy Time Warner Cable, creating the largest cable company in the US.
• Police in Delhi, India have arrested two men in connection with a gang rape of a Danish tourist, promising additional arrests will be forthcoming.
• A new Johns Hopkins/Cal-Irvine study finds caffeine may help long-term memory functions such as retention.

Last Call For Running Against Obama

I'm not a huge Hillary Clinton fan and voted for Barack Obama in the 2008 primary in a state where he lost by 20+ points. I like 2016 speculation in January 2014 even less.  But if Brian Schweitzer of Montana thinks he has a chance in hell running in 2016 as the anti-Obama, he can go straight to hell and take his hopes with him.

Brian Schweitzer, the former two-term Democratic governor of Montana, is rarely speechless. Once he gets going on a topic, he’s almost impossible to stop. As he builds up steam, he’ll slap his knee to emphasize his points. He’ll slap your knee to emphasize his points. Good luck getting a word in edgewise for that follow-up question. 

But at the moment, Schweitzer is rubbing his chin, looking up at the ceiling, searching – unsuccessfully – for just the right words. The question was simple enough: Is there a single thing President Obama has done that you consider a positive achievement? 

Finally, he spoke. 

“My mother, God rest her soul, told me ‘Brian, if you can’t think of something nice to say about something change the subject,’” he said.
But he couldn’t help himself, slamming Obama’s record on civil liberties (the NSA revelations were “un-effing-believable”), his competency (“They just haven’t been very good at running things”), and above all, Obamacare (“It will collapse on its own weight”). 

Eventually, he paused to acknowledge Obama’s historic role as the first black president. But by that standard, Obama’s usefulness ended the day he took the oath of office.

So your plan to win in 2016 is to alienate the Democrats who voted for Barack Obama.  Twice.

Please take your Big Sky country boy act back to Helena, bro.  We're not interested.  If you can't be half-assed to come up with one thing this President did that you liked, I've got a name for you.

Republican.

Steve M makes a similar point about who Schweitzer is playing to:

But what makes this whole package hard to sell is the fact that Schweitzer is making the attack so personal and ad hominem. Do you know what Barack Obama's job approval rating is among Democrats right now? It's 75% according to a December poll from CNN, 78%according to a December CBS poll. It sure seems as if there's disillusionment among Democratic voters, but a lot of Democrats are clearly still loyal, while others are no worse than ambivalent -- they're frustrated and disappointed, maybe, but they're still essentially on Obama's side, even if a lot of what he does (or fails to do) is maddening.

Jamelle Bouie has more:

If Schweitzer is an unlikely choice for the Democratic nomination, it has less to do with his low national profile, and everything to do with his pronounced Obama-skepticism. Black voters have their concerns with the Obama administration, but the president is held in high esteem. Which is to say that, if you’re going to distance yourself from the administration, you have to do so without without attacking Obama as a figure. Otherwise, you’ve alienated African Americans and crippled your bid for the nomination.

Good luck winning the primaries running as a red state white guy who can't think of one nice thing to say about President Obama.  The good news?  Watch carefully who backs Schweitzer from the "left".  It's a dead giveaway they're no friends of Democrats, liberals, or you.  Allahpundit over at Hot Air is hoping Schweitzer can cause as much damage to Democrats as possible, for example.

After all, Ralph Nader has his day in the sun too, and look where that got us.

The Right Climate For A Split Derision

Can we put to bed this absolute nonsense about the scientific community being "split" over man-made global warming?

Scientists say climate change is happening and that we’re exacerbating it. Don’t believe me? Check out this beautifully simple pie chart that illustrates just how rare climate denial in the scientific community is:James Powell

That’s right. Only one — ONE — of the 9,137 authors of peer-reviewed climate change articles rejected anthropogenic global warming. Geochemist James Powell did the research on publications from November 2012 and December 2013. (But if a year-long sample isn’t good enough for you, Powell previously examined 21 years of peer-reviewed literature and found that only 24 out of 13,950 articles — or two-tenths of a percent — came out and rejected human-caused climate change.) 

The one guy that did dissent:  a Russian who notes that measures to rein in global warming would hurt his country's exports of oil and gas.

The industry that has sprung up to stop action on global warming is sponsored by energy corporations collectively worth hundreds of billions, if not trillions, of dollars.  It's all lies and bought politicians, and its worked and will continue to work.

Right up until the disasters keep coming.

The Bridge Is On Fire And Now Covered In Lava

It just keeps getting worse for New Jersey GOP Gov. Chris Christie with this whole bridge scandal cover-up.

Gov. Chris Christie was with the official who arranged the closure of local lanes leading to the George Washington Bridge on Sept. 11, 2013 — the third day of the closures, and well after they had triggered outrage from local officials beset by heavy traffic. 

It isn’t known what, if anything, Mr. Christie discussed with David Wildstein that day, when the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey official was among the delegation of Mr. Christie’s representatives who welcomed him to the site of the World Trade Center for the commemoration of the 12th anniversary of the terrorist attacks there. 

Mr. Christie’s office didn’t respond to questions about what he and Mr. Wildstein discussed. Mr. Wildstein did not respond to a request for comment.

So what's the big deal about that?  Well, it means Christie lied brazenly at his press conference last Thursday.

Also present with Mr. Christie that day were Bill Baroni, the authority’s deputy executive director, who was helping Mr. Wildstein manage the fallout from the closures among local officials, subpoenaed documents show. Also there was David Samson, the Port Authority chairman and close Christie ally, who has said he didn’t learn of the lane closures and traffic in Fort Lee, N.J., until an email from a New York port official ordered the lane closures reversed. Messrs. Samson and Baroni didn’t respond to requests for comment. 

Mr. Christie addressed Mr. Wildstein in a news conference last week, saying he had not encountered him “in a long time.”

Ooooooops.  In other words, Christie lied flat out when he said he wasn't aware of the lane closures, because he met with the guy who made the lane closures, about the lane closures, during the lane closures. He then lied about meeting with Wildstein.

He's in a lot of trouble here, folks.  And this won't be pretty.

StupidiNews!

• The FDA is advising doctors to stop prescribing acetaminophen for pain in doses larger than 325mg, citing increased risk of liver damage.
• Wisconsin Republicans are introducing legislation that would get rid of the five-day work week for employees, and keep state offices open seven days a week.
• A Japan Airline Boeing 787 Dreamliner remains grounded in Tokyo as investigators look into the plane's electrical system for possible fire hazard issues, similar to issues in 2012 and 2013.
• Germany's Deutsche Bank has suspended at least two currency traders on suspicion of attempting to rig international currency exchange rates.
• Republicans are claiming victory over light bulbs as part of the 2014 budget deal, finally repealing the part of President Bush's 2007 law mandating efficiency standards for light bulb energy use.

Last Call For Orange Water

Of course House Speaker John Boehner wasn't planning on bringing up any legislation that might strengthen water regulations after last week's massive West Virginia coal chemical spill that contaminated the water for 300,000 people.  Why, that's just silly.

"We have enough regulations on the books. What the administration ought to be doing is their jobs," Boehner said at a weekly press conference on Capitol Hill. 

While Boehner said that somebody ought to be held accountable for the failure in oversight, the Speaker explained his party was focused on eliminating "cumbersome, over-the-top" regulations that were "costing the American people jobs." 

The site's tanks, owned by Freedom Industries, don't fall under an inspection program and the chemicals stored there weren't considered hazardous enough to require permits before they leaked into the Elk River nearby.

Huh.  The administration should be "doing their jobs" huh.

The site of a West Virginia chemical spill that contaminated the water supply for 300,000 people operated largely outside government oversight, highlighting gaps in regulations and prompting questions on whether local communities have a firm grasp on potential threats to drinking water. 

The storage facility owned by Freedom Industries Inc. on the banks of the Elk River was subject to almost no state and local monitoring, interviews and records show. The industrial chemical that leaked into the river, 4-methylcyclohexane methanol, isn't closely tracked by federal programs. A state regulator had said earlier that, before last week's spill, environmental inspectors hadn't visited the site since 1991. On Monday, the state said it had located another inspection from 2002 related to a remediation project done by the site's previous owner.

It's almost like Republicans are doing everything they can to weaken regulations and to starve the agencies supposedly in charge of oversight so that they can't do their job.  After all, inspections of underground tanks full of dangerous polluting chemicals (being stored near a river that provides drinking water to hundreds of thousands) occurring more than once every 20-25 years or so is burdensome on our poor corporate masters.

As far as the folks in West Virginia who still can't drink the water, well, America and Freedom.

Meanwhile, here in Cincy...

Cincinnati plans to shut down intake valves along the Ohio River to protect the city's drinking water from a chemical spill in West Virginia. 

Mayor John Cranley announced Monday that the valves will be shut down for at least 20 hours beginning Tuesday night. Cranley says that will allow the water to pass the city without any chemicals entering the drinking supply. 

The city plans to use a reserve of 60 hours of treated water, built up specially following the West Virginia spill.

So yes, this affects more than just the people of West Virginia, but people in multiple states.  Like Southwestern Ohio.  You know, where John Bohner's district is.  Perhaps Orange Julius should give a damn, as this is affecting his own constituents who live and work in Cincinnati and Dayton and get their water from the Ohio River.

The Core Of Cory Booker

Over at TNR, Ryan Cooper asks why Sen. Cory Booker is "trying to undermine President Obama" on Iran sanctions despite last weekend's agreement to move forward with a six-month interim deal starting Monday.

American and Iranian negotiators came to an agreement Sunday on a six-month deal to put the Iranian nuclear program on hold in exchange for easing sanctions slightly, in the hopes of reaching a more permanent agreement in the interim. Meanwhile, at last count, 59 senators are supporting a bill that would impose new sanctions—among them Cory Booker, the brand-new New Jersey senator. President Barack Obama has threatened to veto it. 

The bill's supporters insist that they're simply trying to improve the U.S. negotiating posture. On Twitter, Booker insisted that he favors a peaceful solution, adding, "I'm 4 additional sanctions if current negotiations fail 2 start or fail 2 work." A senior aide told Joshua Hersh and Ryan Grim, "The goal isn't to disrupt things, it's to make Iran even more willing to make serious concessions by making them aware of what will happen if they don't." 

This isn't credible. First of all, the administration presumably has some idea of what's best for its negotiating position, and it has been lobbying furiously against new sanctions. Second, the timing is suspect—these senators hurriedly drew up this bill only after the breakthrough in negotiations was announced. Third, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif himself said new sanctions would signal a lack of good faith that would kill any long-term agreement. 

No, this bill is an attempt to kill the Iran deal, whether Booker and company admit that or not. No other explanation makes half as much sense.

Yes and no.  Booker's "good cop, bad cop" explanation is overly simplistic, but so is "He's undermining the President".  The reality is a lot more complex.

This is Booker's first major Israel vote as a Senator, and like it or not, Democrat or not, a Senator from New York or New Jersey in post-9/11 America is going to take the hard line again Iran, even if he's a dove like Booker.  This is as much a regional political reality as Jay Rockefeller being nice to King Coal, Mary Landreiu and Mark Begich being nice to offshore drilling, and Harry Reid (or Booker himself now) respecting the casino gaming industry.

Secondly, I have a problem calling Cory Booker specifically out over this.  Why not the other Senate Dems backing this bill, including Schumer, Gillibrand, and Menendez?  No offense, but if the issue is bowing to AIPAC, Schumer and Menendez in particular have a hell of a lot more to answer for.  Booker just got to the Senate...and he never would have if he didn't toe this particular line.

Cooper ends with this:

The activist left has been disappointed by much of the Obama presidency, wrong-footed in the face of an austerian coalition between the center and an energized, reactionary right. But from New York to Los Angeles, there is clearly some new momentum on the left. If these Senate Dems manage to kill the Iran negotiations, or push us into yet another Middle East catastrophe, none of them will ever be president.

He's correct on that account. The activist left was disappointed in Obama from day one, of course. But I'm going to say that if Iran wanted to kill these negotiations, they'd find an excuse to do it, and hanging that on Cory Booker's neck is almost as bad as continuing to be disappointed in President Obama, who got this deal done in the first place.

I don't agree with it.  But that's how the game works.  You can either play the game and try to change it, or let the Republicans run it.  I'm going to go with the former.

A Supreme Amount Of Trouble

It looks like President Obama's power to make recess appointments is about to have some very strict limits placed on it by SCOTUS if Monday's oral arguments are anything to go by.  Lyle Denniston:

Seeming a bit troubled about allowing the Senate to have an on-off switch on the president’s power to temporarily fill vacant government posts, the Supreme Court on Monday indicated that it may yet allow just that. Even some of the Justices whose votes the government almost certainly needs to salvage an important presidential power were more than skeptical. 

A ninety-three-minute hearing on the Constitution’s grant of power to the president to make short-term appointments to fill vacancies was at times a somewhat anxious exploration of whether history or constitutional text should govern the extent of that power. On balance, text seemed to be winning out, and that appeared to favor the Senate more than the White House. 

Perhaps the most unfortunate moment for presidential authority was a comment by Justice Stephen G. Breyer that modern Senate-White House battles over nominations were a political problem, not a constitutional problem. Senators of both parties have used the Constitution’s recess appointment provisions to their own advantage in their “political fights,” Breyer said, but noted that he could not find anything in the history of the clause that would “allow the president to overcome Senate resistance” to nominees.

If Justice Breyer is openly saying that he can't find any reason for the President's power of recess appointments to not be limited to strictly the time between Congresses rather than whenever Congress isn't actively in session, then any recess appointments the President may wish to make will be limited to a few days every two years, the next window being in January 2015 and that's it.

Should the GOP get control of the Senate, nobody will get confirmed or appointed, and Republicans will be free to keep executive branch positions unfilled for two years.

And there won't be a thing the President will be able to do.

That should scare the hell out of you.

This particular battle looks to be over before it even began.

StupidiNews!

• Congressional leader from both parties say they've worked out an agreement to keep the government open through September 30th.
• Newly sworn-in Virginia Gov. Terry McAullife's first day on the job included an executive order protecting LGBT state employees from discrimination.
• In an effort to win back consumers after a massive credit card security breach over the holidays, retailer Target is turning to a new public relations campaign and security overhaul.
• Japanese distillery giant Suntory is looking to by Jim Beam Brands in order to get its hand on Maker's Mark and the US bourbon market in a reported $16 billion deal.
• Codenamed "Threshhold", Microsoft's Windows 9 could be hitting store shelves as early as April 2015 as the software maker zeroes in on Google and Apple.

Last Call To Sink The GOP

Alex Sink, that is.  And Florida's special election for the vacant seat of the late Republican Rep. Bill Young could very well go to the Democrats in March.

More than a dozen operatives and officials from both parties interviewed by POLITICO were almost unanimous that Democrat Alex Sink, her party’s 2010 nominee for Florida governor, has emerged as the unambiguous favorite in the race. The primary, in which Sink has run unopposed as a group of Republicans have slugged it out, is on Tuesday. The general election is on March 11. 

Democrats need to gain 17 seats to win the House majority in November. An early win in Florida would give the party ammunition to argue they‘re in for a better year than political handicappers expect. A loss, on the other hand, would be widely seen as a serious blow: On Thursday, political analyst Stu Rothenberg penned a piece in Roll Call titled, “The Race Democrats Can’t Afford to Lose.” 

Republicans admit they are increasingly alarmed about the prospect of losing the St. Petersburg-area district. Democrats, after enduring a heartbreaking loss in a 2013 South Carolina special election they thought was theirs, are carefully managing expectations but can smell victory.

We need all the D's who can win that we can get, and this is a seat we can win.

Among Republicans there is unhappiness with the candidates in Tuesday’s GOP primary and disappointment that many of the party’s best and brightest who long had been thought of as successors to Young didn’t run. 

David Jolly, who’s seen as the favorite to get the GOP nod, is a Washington lobbyist — a profession that leaves him vulnerable to being portrayed as a hired gun and insider. State Rep. Kathleen Peters began the race with plenty of promise, winning endorsements from a group of House GOP women eager to expand their ranks. But some Republicans believe her campaign has fizzled, with the candidate scoring low in recent polls. Mark Bircher, a little-known Iraq War veteran, has struggled to raise money.

Or maybe the problem is the GOP brand has been so tarnished by extremist nutcases like Allen West and Rick Scott that Florida is tired of electing them.  Go figure.

We'll keep an eye on this race in March.

The Villagers' Role In The Boss Fantasy

Expanding more on my last post, the entire GOP fantasy involving Chris Christie centers around the fact his dishonest and mean behavior as Governor of New Jersey made him "authentic" and "a strong leader".  Now that the wheels are coming off the Christie bandwagon, we get pieces like this from WIN THE MORNING Magazine: "15 Chris Christie Controversies You Missed"

Democrats in New Jersey have been celebrating what you might call Chris Christiemas this week. When documents were released strongly suggesting that senior members of Governor Christie’s staff were behind the George Washington Bridge lane closures in Fort Lee, the Gov’s ideological opponents breathed a sigh of relief. Christie’s unrivaled political skill and, as Matt Katz outlined here in November, ability to drive a narrative of his choosing, have meant that until now, The Story of Chris Christie As Told By The National Media is one that Christie has largely written himself. As one New Jersey Democratic strategist told me, “the press had basically inaugurated him already.” But Christie’s political career has been riddled with controversies big and small, most of which have been paid little attention by those outside the Garden State. And while perhaps none of these kerfuffles placed anyone in imminent danger quite like Bridgegate did, at least a few of them might have spelled the end of another, less media savvy politician’s career.

And yet Politico was one of those very "national media" outlets that the Democrats in New Jersey are rightfully complaining about, pretending they had no idea why anyone would find fault in the Villagers' love of the man.

Their mendacious lack of awareness (bordering on being a three-year-old with chocolate stains on his face who is asked what happened to the chocolate chip cookies on the table, responds "I don't know!") is equaled only by the mendacity of the same level in the Christie camp's response to the bridge scandal.

Keep in mind Christie never had a chance in 2016, anyway.  There's a reason why Romney passed him over.

The Bridge Over Troubled Christie Is Now On Fire

After years of propping the him up as "authentic" and "bipartisan" suddenly the Villagers are asking questions about why GOP NJ Gov. Chris Christie may not be so honest.

Just days after dismissing two top advisers for their roles in the George Washington Bridge scandal, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is facing questions over the use of Superstorm Sandy relief funds. 

CNN has learned that federal officials are investigating whether Christie improperly used those relief funds to produce tourism ads that starred him and his family. 

The news couldn't come at a worse time for the scandal-plagued Republican, who is facing two probes into whether his staff tied up traffic near the country's busiest bridge to punish a Democratic mayor who refused to endorse his successful re-election bid. 

If the Sandy inquiry finds any wrongdoing, it could prove even more damaging to Christie's national ambitions. His performance during and after the superstorm has been widely praised and is a fundamental part of his straight-shooting political brand. 

In the new probe, federal auditors will examine New Jersey's use of $25 million in Sandy relief funds for a marketing campaign to promote tourism at the Jersey Shore after Sandy decimated the state's coastline in late 2012, New Jersey Democratic Rep. Frank Pallone told CNN.

All the local shenanigans that supporters dismissed about the guy as "non-issues" are suddenly real problems in his now "scandal-plagued" administration.  It's funny now that Christie's brand is permanently damaged how all of a sudden this stuff demands closer inspection.  People are shocked that Christie would do anything to turn his response to Hurricane Sandy into political gold, even possibly break the law?

Now why would Christie risk his image like that?  Oh yes, a year ago, he was THE BOSS.  Now he's just in trouble.

Lots of trouble.

StupidiNews!

• France's first lady, Valerie Trierwieler, has been been hospitalized following allegations French President Francois Hollande has been having an affair.
• A federal judge has ruled that a flea market painting that turned out to be a stolen Renoir artwork has to be returned to the Baltimore Museum of Art, where it was taken from 60 years ago.
• The US State Department has issued a travel warning for the Sochi Olympics, advising Americans to be careful of possible terror attacks.
• Defense contractor Honeywell is under investigation for producing avionics parts for the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter in China before moving production to the US.
• A year after the suicide of internet activist Aaron Swartz, hacker group Anonymous hit the website of Swartz's former university, MIT.