Istanbul, Not Constanti-No-Coup

At this point the coup attempt in Turkey by parts of the military to unseat President Erdogan has failed utterly, and now the cleaners are coming.

Some 2,839 soldiers, including high-ranking officers, have been arrested over an attempted coup that is now over, says Turkey's PM Binali Yildirim.

In a night he called a "black stain on Turkish democracy", he said 161 people had been killed and 1,440 wounded.

Explosions and gunfire were heard in Ankara, Istanbul and elsewhere overnight and thousands of Turks heeded President Erdogan's call to rise up against the coup-plotters.

It is unclear who was behind the coup.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan blamed a "parallel structure", in a clear reference to Fethullah Gulen, a powerful but reclusive US-based Muslim cleric whom he accuses of fomenting unrest.

However, in a statement, Mr Gulen rejected any suggestion he had links to the events, saying he condemned "in the strongest terms, the attempted military coup in Turkey".

All this happened as US Secretary of State John Kerry was in Moscow meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov over the future of Syria, Turkey's neighbor (which Erdogan has been supporting for years militarily).

The CIA playbook on a military coup is pretty standard worldwide: make sure your guys get all the necessary A's.

• Armed forces
• Airwaves
• Airports
• Allies
• and the Asshole in charge you're trying to overthrow.

By my count, the junta had precisely none of those in hand when they pulled the trigger.  Erdogan was on vacation in the resort city of Marmaris, 400 miles away from Ankara or Istanbul.  His forces took the airports, defended State TV, and protected his allies in parliament.  It was a botched job from the word go, so comically inept that I'd almost believe Kerry and Lavrov decided to help Erdogan clean out his pool filter of idiots in exchange for staying out of Syria in the future. Almost. (Can't rule out stupid people being stupid.)

Shorter version: If you come at the king, best not miss.




They missed.

It's going to get nasty in Turkey.

May Or May Not In The UK

Welcome to the Theresa May era in British politics, where the new Tory government's first order of bsuiness is to rid the nation of that pesky department dealing with climate change.

The government has axed the Department of Energy and Climate Change (Decc) in a major departmental shake-up. 

The brief will be folded into an expanded Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy under Greg Clark. 

Ed Miliband, the former energy and climate secretary under Labour, called the move "plain stupid". 

It comes at a time when campaigners are urging the government to ratify the Paris climate change deal. 

In his statement, Mr Clark appeared keen to calm concerns about the priority given to tackling global warming. 

He said: "I am thrilled to have been appointed to lead this new department charged with delivering a comprehensive industrial strategy, leading Government's relationship with business, furthering our world-class science base, delivering affordable, clean energy and tackling climate change."

Everything's fine, nothing to see here, please go about your business as May's Tories continue to take the country down the primrose path.  Expect more of this as the days, weeks, and months wear on and Brexit-era London decides more and more to pull out of international accords and apologize profusely, but it just can't be done, you see.  British wingnuts may be more polite, but they're just as awful.

New tag: Theresa May.

Last Call For Parks And Wreck Creation

So, you remember America's bountiful national park system?  That whole amazing series of parks and monuments ranging from the Great Smoky Mountains to Yellowstone to Denali to the Grand Canyon, where tens of millions of us visit each year and enjoy our beautiful country while working to preserve nature for generations to come? Yeah, well, apparently we're going to just chuck that out the window and go frack it all if the GOP gets their way.

The Republican platform committee met this week to draft the document that defines the party’s official principles and policies. Along with provisions on pornography and LGBT “conversion therapy” is an amendment calling for the indiscriminate and immediate disposal of national public lands. 

The inclusion of this provision in the Republican Party’s platform reflects the growing influence of and ideological alliance between several anti-park members of the GOP and anti-government extremists, led by Cliven Bundy, who dispute the federal government’s authority over national public lands. 

“Congress shall immediately pass universal legislation providing a timely and orderly mechanism requiring the federal government to convey certain federally controlled public lands to the states,” reads the adopted language. “We call upon all national and state leaders and representatives to exert their utmost power and influence to urge the transfer of those lands identified.” 

The provision calls for an immediate full-scale disposal of “certain” public lands, without defining which lands it would apply to, leaving national parks, wilderness areas, wildlife refuges, and national forests apparently up for grabs and vulnerable to development, privatization, or transfer to state ownership.

If this sounds delightfully stupid, that's because it is. Apparently there's an entire GOP caucus dedicated to ending America's national park system, because we have to ruthlessly exploit all the land we have to create jobs opportunities communities money for rich people.

Republicans are now officially the party of getting rid of America's parks.

They hate the environment that much.

Trump Cards, Con't

With all the screaming this week about police reform, terror trucks, and Pokemon, we've overlooked the issue with the upcoming Republican convention in Cleveland: Donald Trump is effecively broke and is begging for money just to keep the lights on.

Millions of dollars short and running out of time, organizers of the Republican National Convention have written an urgent request for $6 million to Las Vegas billionaire couple Sheldon and Miriam Adelson to cover the bills for next week’s festivities. 

In a letter to the Adelsons, obtained by POLITICO, the Cleveland 2016 Host Committee revealed the names of more than two dozen prominent corporations and individuals who have reneged on a collective $8.1 million in pledged donations.

The letter represents the most public acknowledgment to date that Donald Trump has directly cost convention organizers millions of fundraising dollars. 

“Over the past couple months, negative publicity around our potential nominee resulted in a considerable number of pledges backing out from their commitments,” the letter says. 

It goes on to list the companies and wealthy individuals who have withdrawn their financial commitments. Among those who have canceled their donations, according to the letter, are David Koch ($1 million), FedEx ($500,000), Visa ($100,000), Pepsi ($500,000) and Coca-Cola ($1 million).

None of these global brands want to be associated with the Party of Trump so directly right now, and who can blame them?  The thing is, if "billionaire" Trump truly has the money he says he does, then he should have no issue writing a check himself to cover the difference.

He's not doing that.  It's almost like his entire campaign is a hollow shell company bilking his "investors" while he cons his way to the top.

Suckers.

Newt Makes His Awful Case

With the news that Trump has selected Indiana GOP Gov. Mike Pence as his veep (although Trump said last night he hasn't made a "final, final decision" yet) Newt Gingrich made his play on FOX last night to secure the job by going after America's Muslim population as enemies of the state.

SEAN HANNITY (HOST): I don't want to really tie this into politics, but every issue America is now dealing with, every issue that we have discussed in recent months and years about the Islamization of Europe, about refugees, about immigration, about open borders -- it seems to come together, and also political correctness and not recognizing radical Islamic terrorism as the enemy and evil in our time. From your perspective, what does this tragedy, this evil attack tonight, mean for that conflict and debate?

NEWT GINGRICH: Well, first of all, Sean, as you know, I was in Paris just last weekend talking with people who are deeply involved in trying to deal with the Iranian government and other sources of terrorism. And let me also say Daniel Silva has a remarkable new novel called Black Widow, and the entire opening section is on the systematic Islamic attack on Jews in France, which is the worst it's been since the Nazis. So let me start with where I'm coming from, and let me be as blunt and as direct as I can be.

Western civilization is in a war. We should frankly test every person here who is of a Muslim background, and if they believe in Sharia, they should be deported. Sharia is incompatible with Western civilization. Modern Muslims who have given up Sharia, glad to have them as citizens. Perfectly happy to have them next door. But we need to be fairly relentless about defining who our enemies are. Anybody who goes on a website favoring ISIS, or Al Qaeda, or other terrorist groups, that should be a felony, and they should go to jail. Any organization which hosts such a website should be engaged in a felony. It should be closed down immediately.

Our forces should be used to systematically destroy every internet-based source. And frankly if we can't destroy them through the internet, we should destroy them with kinetic power, using various weapons starting with Predators, and frankly just killing them. I am sick and tired of being told that the wealthiest, most powerful civilization in history, all of Western civilization, is helpless in the face of a group of medieval barbarians who, for example, recently burned 20 young women to death -- burned them to death because they wouldn't have sex with them. A group which beheaded recently in the Philippines two Canadian businessmen.

And we're told to be reasonable, to be passive, to not judge. Well I just want to tell you tonight, everybody who watches this video, this is the fault of Western elites who lack the guts to do what is right, to do what is necessary, and to tell us the truth, and that starts with Barack Obama.

And in the 15 years since 9/11, this is the way we continue to treat Muslims in America: a potential vice-presidential pick openly calling for loyalty tests, mass deportations, and endless war up to and including genocide.

I know I've criticized Barack Obama's foreign policy, hell I did it just last night.  I've gone after Clinton's foreign policy as well.  But the Republican alternative is insanity. We cannot allow these monsters to rule our country with fear and hatred any longer. Our international allies must think we're lunatics, a standing danger to the entire planet with rhetoric like this.

We've got to start fixing this in November, and that means doing everything possible to get Republicans out of office.  That means President Hillary Clinton, and Democrats on down the ticket in 50 states. I endorse that without hesitation at this point.  I'm done wishing for a sane Republican party, I'm done trying to appeal to their supporters' humanity. They're adults, they can make their choices.

My choice is the Democratic party, period.

StupidiNews!

• An 18-wheeler smashed though Bastille Day crowds in Nice, France, leaving 84 dead, including 2 Americans, in what authorities are calling a terrorist attack.
• Donald Trump is expected to tap GOP Indiana Gov. Mike Pence as his running mate, but the final decision will be postponed by Trump due to the Nice attack.
• New British PM Theresa May continues to assemble her cabinet, dismissing a number of ministers from posts and replacing them with proponents of Britain's exit from the EU.
• Cases involving voter rights in Texas and North Carolina are expected to be heard by a short-handed Supreme Court before the November election, risking more 4-4 deadlock outcomes.
• Former President Jimmy Carter says his decision to help fund NASA's space shuttle program was because of the program's peaceful exploration purposes.

Last Call For Putin On The Blitz

Cold, hard realpolitik in the Obama era is giving me a headache, and no migraine is larger than Syria right now. I'm not surprised at all that the new plan to cooperate with Russia over Syria to fight ISIS is on terms that are apparently very, very good for the existing Assad regime and for our good friend Vlad. Josh Rogin at WaPo:

The Obama administration’s new proposal to Russia on Syria is more extensive than previously known. It would open the way for deep cooperation between U.S. and Russian military and intelligence agencies and coordinated air attacks by American and Russian planes on Syrian rebels deemed to be terrorists,according to the text of the proposal I obtained. 

Secretary of State John F. Kerry plans to discuss the plan with top Russian officials in a visit to Moscow on Thursday. As I first reported last month, the administration is proposing joining with Russia in a ramped-up bombing campaign against Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Qaeda’s Syria branch, which is also known as the Nusrah Front. What hasn’t been previously reported is that the United States is suggesting a new military command-and-control headquarters to coordinate the air campaign that would house U.S. and Russian military officers, intelligence officials and subject-matter experts. 

Overall, the proposal would dramatically shift the United States’ Syria policy by directing more American military power against Jabhat al-Nusra, which unlike the Islamic State is focused on fighting the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. While this would expand the U.S. counterterrorism mission in Syria, it would also be a boon for the Assad regime, which could see the forces it is fighting dramatically weakened. The plan also represents a big change in U.S.-Russia policy. It would give Russian President Vladi­mir Putin something he has long wanted: closer military relations with the United States and a thawing of his international isolation. That’s why the Pentagon was initially opposed to the plan. 

Yet for all this, it’s not at all clear that the plan will be accepted by Putin — or that Russia will fulfill its terms if he does. Administration officials caution that no final decisions have been made and that no formal agreement has been reached between the two countries. Negotiations over the text are ongoing ahead of Kerry’s arrival in Russia.

So what we'd really be doing is attacking the largest thorn in Assad's side and helping Russia with their favorite dictator in the Middle East, in exchange for...what, exactly?

In exchange for U.S. assistance against Jabhat al-Nusra, the Russian side would be required to limit airstrikes to targets both sides agreed on and also to ensure that the Syrian air force would stand down and not bomb targets in agreed-upon “designated areas.” 

The proposal provides some large exceptions for the constraints on the Russians and the Assad regime, however. The Russian air force would still be permitted to strike Jabhat al-Nusra unilaterally if there were an “imminent threat” to their personnel. The Syrian regime would be allowed to bomb Jabhat al-Nusra if the group tried to advance beyond “designated areas” in which they already operate. Also, if Jabhat al-Nusra attacked the regime, even from the “designated areas,” the Russians could come to the aid of the regime, according to the proposal. The details of the “designated areas” are not spelled out in the document. 

“All actions should be consistent with the terms of the cessation of hostilities,” the document states, referring the cease-fire. The State Department admits neither Russia nor the Assad regime are adhering to the cease-fire now.

In the second part of the proposal, called the “Approach for Practical Russian-American Cooperation against Daesh and Jabhat al Nusra and Strengthening the Cessation of Hostilities,” the administration spells out details about how it wants the United States and Russia to work together on the ground. 

Within five days of establishment of the JIG, the two sides are to come up with a common map of all Jabhat al-Nusra locations and begin sharing intelligence on leadership targets, training camps, logistical depots, supply lines and headquarters. They will then set about developing targets for strikes in the “designated areas.”

Right, so Assad would totally, seriously, super promise not to keep bombing the crap out of the smoking rubble of what's left in Syria, with six million people already displaced and hundreds of thousands more fleeing each month.   Except for you know the part where the exceptions to that promise allow him to do just that and gleefully continue to destroy one of the oldest civilizations on Earth because people made him feel bad about his dead father.

Sure, this seems like a great deal for the folks that are left in Syria, and something that totally isn't going to blow up and turn into an even worse problem in 2017 and beyond.

Good job, Obama foreign policy team.  I feel confident that this won't be a collosal garbage fire, because we can totally trust Assad and Putin completely.

I'm going to take some Aleve for this migraine, in the meantime.

Gotta Catch Em, Law!

I understand that legislation keeping up with technology is always a challenge in America, and lord knows Pokemon Go is causing me headaches at work as our company's mobility device administrator, but boy, this didn't take long, did it?

Assemblyman Felix Ortiz, a Brooklyn Democrat and established nanny-stater, said he is "concerned” that people playing Pokemon Go, the viral augmented reality game, pose a risk to public safety.

"Like any new technology, it has its advantages and disadvantages, and like any new technology, it has to be looked at very, very carefully. Everything comes down to people’s responsibility as well as corporate responsibility,” Ortiz said Tuesday. "Every single one of us who might want to play this game have to be very cautious. Who’s sending what, and what is the follow up? Everyone should be cautious to make sure that no intruders will be able to tap into this and have people think they’re going to the park when in reality they’re going to a be targeted by some rapist. People could think they’re going to the bank, but in reality, someone is waiting to take their money.” 

Already, people in Baltimore and elsewhere have been mugged while glued to their phones, which display balls and digital avatars on videos of people's actual surroundings.
Ortiz said he was concerned people would play in busy streets, or while driving cars. The latter fear is shared by the state’s Department of Motor Vehicles, whose leader, Terri Egan, warned that it could have “tragic real-world consequences.” 

"Catching virtual creatures to get to the next level is not worth risking your life or the lives of others,” she stated. 

Ortiz has a reputation at the Capitol for being a noodge: he has proposed banning the use of salt in restaurants, taxes on alcohol and sugary drinks as well as admission to strip clubs. 

He said he’s not prepared to introduce legislation relating to Pokemon Go or other games, at least not yet, but hopes game companies recognize potential risks in their products and react accordingly. He pointed to a recall announced this week of hoverboards — which, yes, Ortiz also carries a bill to regulate. 

"My big call is to the company, to watch what is happening. They should be vigilant before they become liable,” he said. "If it’s an issue they can pull out and fix, they won’t be liable. Otherwise, I will introduce legislation.”

So my immediate question comes back to this topic: not only do I worry about police harassing people of color who are safely playing the game in their own neighborhoods and homes, but how long before actually playing Pokemon Go becomes yet another violation of the law that police selectively enforce against people of color?

Here's an idea, if you're worried about regulating people's safety, DO SOMETHING ABOUT GUN CONTROL AND UNIVERSAL BACKGROUND CHECKS RATHER THAN POKEMON GO.

Idiots.

This is going to be another long, brutal summer I think.

Going To Town With President Obama

President Obama will host a nationally televised town hall meeting on race in America tonight at 8 PM, and the Disney networks will cover it in its entirety.

In an unprecedented move, all of the networks owned by Walt Disney Co. will air a town hall with President Obama on race relations in prime time on Thursday.

The town hall event, to begin at 8 p.m., will be commercial free.

ABC-TV, ESPN, ABC News Digital, Freeform Digital, the WATCH ABC app, the WatchESPN app, Yahoo, and ABC Radio will all air the town hall, titled "The President and The People: A National Conversation.” 

It will air live from Washington, D.C., and will be produced by ABC News.

World News Tonight anchor David Muir will co-moderate the event. His co-moderator will be ESPN commentator Jemele Hill, who normally hosts a sports banter program called "His & Hers," with Michael Smith, on ESPN 2.

The president is scheduled to discuss race relations, policing and gun violence.

The town hall comes on the heels of a series of separate highly publicized shootings of African-American men by police in Louisiana and Minnesota, and the sniper ambush killings of five police officers during a protest in Dallas last week.

I'm 110% for this and will definitely be watching this evening.  Pay attention, folks.  This is the president using his bully pulpit to an unprecedented degree at a time when it is most sorely needed.

No doubt Republicans will go insane over this and will demand investigations of the FCC for allowing this "abuse of ececutive power" to happen.

Not even kidding about that.  Watch.

StupidiNews!

• Presumptive GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump will take the unusual step of announcing his running mate before the party's convention on Friday morning.
• The case of which bathroom a Virginia transgender high school student can use goes to the Supreme Court as lawyers are seeking an emergency stay from a lower court ruling.
• Hungary has shut down a reactor at its Paks nuclear plant due to an equipment malfunction, officials say the reactor's automated systems kicked in preventing any safety issues.
• Japan's population continues to shrink as people are having fewer children, even as the number of foreigners in the country grew to 2.17 million in 2015. 
• Democratic Sen. Al Franken of Minnesota wants answers to the virtual world/real world privacy questions raised by the popularity of the Pokemon Go smartphone app.

Last Call For The Full Ginsburg

The NY Times is quite upset that Justice Ruth Bader Ginburg would voice an opinion about Donald Trump being less than optimal for America if he were elected president.

Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg needs to drop the political punditry and the name-calling.

Three times in the past week, Justice Ginsburg has publicly discussed her view of the presidential race, in the sharpest terms. In an interview with The Times published Sunday, Justice Ginsburg said, “I can’t imagine what the country would be — with Donald Trump as our president,” joking that if her husband were alive, he might have said, “It’s time for us to move to New Zealand.”

Earlier, in an interview with The Associated Press that appeared on Friday, when asked to consider a Trump victory, Justice Ginsburg replied, “I don’t want to think about that possibility, but if it should be, then everything is up for grabs.”

On Monday Justice Ginsburg doubled down, calling Mr. Trump “a faker,” who “has no consistency about him.” In that interview, with CNN, she added: “He says whatever comes into his head at the moment. He really has an ego.”

The basic argument is that stooping to the level of the late Justice Antonin Scalia and uttering political proclamations about the executive branch is beneath Notorious RBG, particularly when they involve an upcoming election.  I can see that point of view, but then Donald Trump exploded on Twitter today and basically proved Justice Ginsburg was correct.

Trump on Tuesday fired back.

“I think it’s a disgrace to the court, and I think she should apologize to the court,” he told the newspaper. “And I would hope that she would get off the court as soon as possible.”

He added, “I think it’s highly inappropriate that a United States Supreme Court judge gets involved in a political campaign, frankly.”

Now, can you imagine what thin-skinned Trump would dare to do if the Supreme Court ever ruled against his administration?

Pretty sure Justice Ginsburg made us all consider that this week.

A Whiter Shade Of Beyond The Pale

The narrative that Democrats have abandoned "working-class Midwest whites" who are now rallying around Trump because of "class issues" is the chosen narrative of the Village to explain away all of Trump's unfortunate support from the white supremacist movement in the US, but Nick Confessore over at the NY Times is at least acknowledging that this handwaving is, you know, a real problem for America right now.

Outside a former aircraft factory in Bethpage, N.Y., not far from a strip of halal butchers and Indian restaurants now known as Little India, a Long Island housewife who gave her name as Kathy Reb finished a cigarette on a spring evening. Nervously, she explained how she had watched the complexion of her suburb outside New York City change. “Everyone’s sticking together in their groups,” she said, “so white people have to, too.” 

The resentment among whites feels both old and distinctly of this moment. It is shaped by the reality of demographic change, by a decade and a half of war in the Middle East, and by unease with the newly confident and confrontational activism of young blacks furious over police violence. It is mingled with patriotism, pride, fear and a sense that an America without them at its center is not really America anymore. 

In the months since Mr. Trump began his campaign, the percentage of Americans who say race relations are worsening has increased, reaching nearly half in an April poll by CBS News. The sharpest rise was among Republicans: Sixty percent said race relations were getting worse. 

And Mr. Trump’s rise is shifting the country’s racial discourse just as the millennial generation comes fully of age, more and more distant from the horrors of the Holocaust, or the government-sanctioned racism of Jim Crow. 

Some are elated by the turn. In making the explicit assertion of white identity and grievance more widespread, Mr. Trump has galvanized the otherwise marginal world of avowed white nationalists and self-described “race realists.” They hail him as a fellow traveler who has driven millions of white Americans toward an intuitive embrace of their ideals: that race should matter as much to white people as it does to everyone else. He has freed Americans, those activists say, to say what they really believe. 

“The discussion that white Americans never want to have is this question of identity — who are we?” said Richard Spencer, 38, a writer and activist whose Montana-based nonprofit is dedicated to “the heritage, identity and future of people of European descent” in the United States. “He is bringing identity politics for white people into the public sphere in a way no one has.”

White folks as a whole are definitely not ready for an America where white people are no longer the cultural, social, historical, and legal default, so the goal is to square the circle and get them back on top again.  Here's the rub though, they always have been on top and still are in many way, just not as in many way as they were in say, 1956, 1976 or even 1996.

The country is still adjusting, and will be for some time.  But let's be real here, Donald Trump is empowering the forces that want to take us back to to 1956 in one fell swoop, and that can't be allowed to happen, and there are plenty of folks on the left who will be willing to help Trump do just that come November.

We'll see what comes from it.

Our Poll Arised Nation, Con't

Two polls out today showing the race for the White House going off in completely different directions.  First, Reuters is out with a new national poll showing Hillary Clinton with a major lead:

Democratic presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton extended her lead over Republican rival Donald Trump to 13 percentage points in a Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll released on Tuesday, up from 10 points at the end of last week. 

The July 8-12 poll showed 46 percent of likely voters supported Clinton, the former secretary of state, while 33 percent supported Trump, a celebrity real estate developer. Another 21 percent did not support either candidate. 

That compared with 45 percent who supported Clinton and 35 percent who supported Trump in the five days to July 8. 

Clinton, the presumptive Democratic nominee, has mostly led in the national online poll this year. The last time Trump came close to Clinton's popularity was in early May, when his last two rivals for the Republican nomination dropped out of the race and party leaders started to line up behind his campaign.

Trump, who is expected to become the official Republican nominee at the party's convention next week, has since lost ground in the poll as he struggled to refocus his campaign from the Republican nominating contests to the Nov. 8 general election.

The poll also shows Clinton breaking even on popularity, where Trump is mired in the upper 30's. That however is a far cry from the latest Quinnipiac swing state poll of Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio, showing Trump leading or tied with Clinton and Trump winning all three states when third party candidates Jill Stein and Gary Johnson are factored in.

With a drop in grades on honesty and moral standards, Democrat Hillary Clinton loses an 8-point lead over Republican Donald Trump in Florida, and finds herself in too-close-to-call races in the three critical swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today.

Clinton loses ground on almost every measure from a June 21 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. The Swing State Poll focuses on Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania because since 1960 no candidate has won the presidential race without taking at least two of these three states.

The presidential matchups show: 

• Florida - Trump at 42 percent to Clinton's 39, compared to a 47 - 39 percent Clinton lead June 21;
• Ohio - Clinton and Trump tied 41 - 41 percent, compared to a 40 - 40 percent tie June 21;
• Pennsylvania - Trump at 43 percent to Clinton's 41 percent, compared to June 21, when Clinton had 42 percent to Trump's 41 percent. With third party candidates in the race, results are:
• Florida - Trump leads Clinton 41 - 36 percent, with 7 percent for Libertarian Gary Johnson and 4 percent for Green Party candidate Jill Stein;
• Ohio - Trump at 37 percent to Clinton's 36 percent, with Johnson at 7 percent and Stein at 6 percent;
• Pennsylvania - Trump over Clinton 40 - 34 percent with 9 percent for Johnson and 3 percent for Stein.

"Donald Trump enters the Republican Convention on a small roll in the three most important swing states in the country. He has wiped out Hillary Clinton's lead in Florida; is on the upside of too-close to call races in Florida and Pennsylvania and is locked in a dead heat in Ohio," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

Needless to say, at least one of these polls is badly, badly wrong.  If Reuters is correct, Hillary Clinton is on her way to an historic landslide victory, where a 13 point lead would end up giving her possible wins in previously safe, deep red states like Texas, Tennessee, Alaska, and even Kentucky, setting up a complete Republican wipeout in November that would totally reverse the last six years of GOP gains in Congress.

But if Quinnipiac is right, it's entirely possible that both national third party candidates may end up in double digits and give Trump the wins across the Rust Belt that he has to have in order to win in November and possibly putting other Rust Belt blue states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa and even Illinois and Minnesota into serious contention for Trump and the GOP.  That in turn could relegate the Democrats to a regional coastal minority for the next decade.

The truth, dear reader, is somewhere in between, I suspect.  There's no way I believe that Clinton is ahead by 13 nationally, but there's no way I believe that Trump is ahead in Florida by five and PA by six points right now, either.  The Reuters poll is probably closer to the truth, but it's not nor will it ever be a double digit lead unless Trump completely crashes.

On the gripping hand, the new McClatchy poll showing Clinton ahead 42-39 while only getting 81% of the black vote, only 57% of Sanders supporters, and only 52% of the Latino vote is complete nonsense.

I suspect we'll have a clearer picture come August once the conventions are over.

StupidiNews!

• China now says it will strongly consider establishing a military air defense zone over the South China Sea in reaction to losing an international territorial ruling to a court in the Hague.
• A new study finds black drivers living in predominately African-American zip codes pay on average 70% more in auto insurance costs nationwide.
• The solar-powered Solar Impulse 2 plane has landed safely in Cairo, Egypt as it continues to circle the globe and will tackle the trip's final leg to Abu Dhabi later this month.
• Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg faces sharp criticism from conservatives after she voiced her opinion this week calling Trump a "faker" unfit for the presidency.
• Criticism over where it's appropriate to play Pokemon Go is igniting a national debate over the digital rights of public and private places in America.

Last Call For The Speech In Dallas

President Obama must hate giving these speeches in the wake of mass shooting tragedies, yet he keeps on going even as he is visibly aware that his time in the White House is running out.  His speech today in Dallas was both no exception, and exceptional. The Dallas Morning News editorial board covered it:

Dallas' response in the days since five of our police officers were murdered demonstrates that our city can help show America how to heal its divisions over race and ease tensions over police violence.

That was the message President Barack Obama delivered Tuesday, and we couldn't agree more.

The shooter, Obama noted, was motivated by racial hatred, but the white officers he killed had been motivated by love and service. Dallas has responded with more love and unity in the days since.

That's a recipe for hope, the president said.

"We are not as divided as we seem," he said. "And I know that because I know America. I know how far we've come against impossible odds. ... And I know it because of what we've seen here in Dallas."

We weren't waiting for the President to tell us we've done what is right. We feel it in our bones, and see it in our neighbors' faces. But the words are welcome anyway.

The truth is, even before any of Tuesday's speeches, the service at the Meyerson Symphony Hall was poignant and pitch-perfect. It was an appropriate capstone for five painful days that, despite our tears, have showed Dallas at its best.

Barack Obama truly believes America is better than the deaths of black people, the deaths of police protecting a protest of police,  the blazing hatred that has shown its ugly head nearly every day of this man's presidency.  He believes we are better.

Even when we do not.

"I've seen how inadequate words can be in bringing about lasting change. I've seen how inadequate my own words have been," he said.

He went beyond words, however, when he urged us to confront the racism we too often ignore. It is real, and the protesters like the ones in our streets last Thursday speak from places of pain and desperation. We must hear them even as we honor our police.

That's what Dallas can do, and the good news is we've already begun.

As Obama said: "Weeping may endure for a night but I'm convinced joy comes in the morning."

I'm weary of waiting for that joy.  I'm tired of shouting into the night and expecting the sun to come up.  I'm tired of an entire political party dedicated to making everyone but themselves miserable. I'm tired of being considered a dangerous, mindless brute and hearing from people I trust and even love that my experiences aren't happening, can't be happening in this America in 2016.  I'm tired of the psychic damage delivered offhand by someone who never has truly wanted for anything.

Barack Obama has been through that times a million.  And yet he keeps going.

That does give me hope.