Friday, November 10, 2017

The Tale Of A Lesser Moore

Alabama's special election for Jeff Sessions's old seat is next month, and the candidates are two lawyers: Democrat Doug Jones, who successfully prosecuted the two remaining KKK members who committed the infamous 1963 church bombing in Birmingham, and Roy Moore, a man removed from the Alabama Supreme Court not once but twice over failure to follow the law and who now faces allegations of sexual contact with 3 teenage girls in 1979.

Leigh Corfman says she was 14 years old when an older man approached her outside a courtroom in Etowah County, Ala. She was sitting on a wooden bench with her mother, they both recall, when the man introduced himself as Roy Moore.

It was early 1979 and Moore — now the Republican nominee in Alabama for a U.S. Senate seat — was a 32-year-old assistant district attorney. He struck up a conversation, Corfman and her mother say, and offered to watch the girl while her mother went inside for a child custody hearing.

“He said, ‘Oh, you don’t want her to go in there and hear all that. I’ll stay out here with her,’ ” says Corfman’s mother, Nancy Wells, 71. “I thought, how nice for him to want to take care of my little girl.”

Alone with Corfman, Moore chatted with her and asked for her phone number, she says. Days later, she says, he picked her up around the corner from her house in Gadsden, drove her about 30 minutes to his home in the woods, told her how pretty she was and kissed her. On a second visit, she says, he took off her shirt and pants and removed his clothes. He touched her over her bra and underpants, she says, and guided her hand to touch him over his underwear.

“I wanted it over with — I wanted out,” she remembers thinking. “Please just get this over with. Whatever this is, just get it over.” Corfman says she asked Moore to take her home, and he did.

Two of Corfman’s childhood friends say she told them at the time that she was seeing an older man, and one says Corfman identified the man as Moore. Wells says her daughter told her about the encounter more than a decade later, as Moore was becoming more prominent as a local judge.

Aside from Corfman, three other women interviewed by The Washington Post in recent weeks say Moore pursued them when they were between the ages of 16 and 18 and he was in his early 30s, episodes they say they found flattering at the time, but troubling as they got older. None of the three women say that Moore forced them into any sort of relationship or sexual contact.

The Post's story on Moore's odious conduct is extremely well-sourced.  Moore denies the allegations and literally calls the story "fake news", hoping to fundraise off the outrage factor of being attacked by the evil Democrats, but other Alabama Republicans are shrugging and saying that even if he did it, it shouldn't and doesn't actually matter and that the women are all liars anyway.

“I think it’s just a bunch of bull,” Perry Hooper Jr., President Trump’s Alabama state chairman, told TPM. “Mitch McConnell should know better to make a statement like he made unless he gets all the answers. We’re right in the political zone right now, the election’s December 12th. This is the same campaign issue the left ran against Donald Trump on, they’re doing the same thing against Roy Moore.”

Hooper, who’d backed Sen. Luther Strange (R-AL) over Moore in the primary, called the allegations “ludicrous” and “gutter politics” unless they could be proven.

“The same thing went on when President Trump ran for office, there was about 15 ladies who ran to the press and said the same thing,” he said.

When asked how the claims could be proven, he suggested the woman take a polygraph.

“Maybe she just needs to take a polygraph test. And the people who are pushing her, they need to take the same test too to see if they’re telling the truth,” he said.

Alabama State Rep. Ed Henry (R), Trump’s other Alabama campaign co-chairman, was even harsher.

“I believe it is very opportunistic and they are just looking for their chance to get on some liberal talk show. I’m sure they’ve probably been offered money by entities that surround the Clintons and that side of the world. We know they will pay to dirty anyone’s name that’s in their way. If you believe for a second that any of these are true then shame on these women for not coming forward in the last 30 years, it’s not like this guy hasn’t been in the limelight for decades. I call B.S. myself. I think it’s all lies and fabrication,” Henry told TPM.

When asked about McConnell’s comments, he erupted.

“Mitch McConnell, and you can quote me on this, is a dumbass, a coward, a liar himself and exactly what’s wrong with Washington, D.C. He would love for Roy Moore not to be in Washington, he’d much rather have a Democrat. Mitch McConnell is scum,” he said, putting the chances at “zero” that the state party would un-endorse Moore.

And he said he’d need photographic evidence to believe the women.

“They got some pictures? That’ll do,” he said. “You can’t sit on something like this for thirty-something years with a man as in the spotlight as Roy Moore and all of a sudden three weeks before a senatorial primary all of a sudden these three or four women are going to talk about something in 1979? I call bull. It’s as fabricated as the day is long.”

Indeed, Donald Trump has been accused by over a dozen women of sexual harassment, misconduct, and assault, and the official position of the White House and the Republican Party is that every single one of the claims is fabricated by lying women.

But at this point, the election is 32 days away and there's no chance Moore will drop out or be removed, so as with Trump, we're about to see if Republican voters believe allegations of sex crimes are a dealbreaker or not.  We know racism isn't, and we've got plenty of evidence that sex crimes aren't either, so my prediction that Moore wins easily next month remains.

We're dealing with voters in a state like this.

While dozens of Republicans in Washington are calling on Moore to step aside if the allegations are true, Republicans in Alabama don’t think the story will resonate the same way for voters. Instead, they focused on the timing of the allegations, which come just four weeks before the election.

Paul Reynolds, the Republican National Committeeman from Alabama, told The Hill that something about the timing of the accusation and the Post’s role breaking the story “doesn’t smell right.”

“My gosh, it's The Washington Post. If I’ve got a choice of putting my welfare into the hands of Putin or The Washington Post, Putin wins every time,” he said.

“This is going to make Roy Moore supporters step up to the plate and give more, work more and pray more."

They believe this is a good thing for Roy Moore.

Chuck Todd (yes, that Chuck Todd) argues that Doug Jones can win this race.

Now you might say that there’s no way (or little way) that a Republican could lose in Alabama, a state Trump won by a whopping 28 points in 2016. But consider:
  • Before yesterday, Moore’s lead was just in the high single digits or low double digits, according to the polls. That isn’t a bulletproof lead;
  • Moore has been a controversial figure in Alabama for more than a decade;
  • Democratic opponent Doug Jones has owned the TV airwaves for an entire month, with ads like this: “I can work with Republicans better than Roy Moore can work with anyone”;
  • And the race is a one-on-one special election that takes place two weeks before Christmas, so it will be a low-turnout affair. There is no other race on the ballot.
This isn’t to say that it’s a slam dunk that Moore loses after yesterday. But we’re not sure enough people realize how dangerous the political situation is for the GOP. 

Yes, Jones isn't facing a 28 point blowout.  But if loses by 5 points instead of 12, he still loses.  That's where I see things going.  The situation can change and I hope that I'm wrong and Jones wins.

I don't see that happening unless there's a major collapse of Moore's support and that collapse hasn't come yet.

We'll see.

StupidiNews!

Thursday, November 9, 2017

Last Call For Mayday In November

Donald Trump's had a bad month or so, with indictments of his former campaign manager and his business partner and a foreign policy adviser cooperating with Mueller to turn states' evidence on his regime.  This week Trump's party got crushed in Virginia and New Jersey and Republicans are retiring in droves from Congress.

But across the pond UK Prime Minister Theresa May isn't exactly having a good November either, and suddenly her government has to be glad that Trump's failures are helping to take May and her massive bungles off the front page.

The saying goes that a week is a long time in politics. That’s all the time it took for May to lose Defence Secretary Michael Fallon in the sexual-harassment scandal rocking Westminster and her international development secretary, Priti Patel, over a stack of revelations about secret meetings with Israeli officials -- including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. To make matters worse, two other senior figures are in hot water. Officials are investigating harassment and pornography allegations against May’s deputy, Damian Green, which he strongly denies. Separately, Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson faces calls to resign for a loose comment about a British woman currently in jail in Iran that may lengthen her sentence. 
By Monday afternoon, it was clear that Patel had been running a freelance foreign policy in one of the most sensitive, complex regions in the world. That on its own would under normal circumstances have been enough for her to be fired. On Tuesday morning, May learned from the BBC about a proposal Patel had made to give aid money to the Israeli military yet Patel was still allowed to get onto a plane to Kenya for a scheduled trip.
So when May finally took the plunge it didn’t come across as an act of strength. The question was whether she would fire Patel -- which could be humiliating -- or force a resignation that allowed her minister to leave with more dignity. She chose the latter though it looked a lot like a dismissal. 
Patel was summoned back early, arrived to 10 Downing Street via a back entrance and was kept waiting. Shortly after their 30-minute meeting, May’s office released two letters: Patel’s resignation and May’s acceptance of it as the right decision. 
“This situation demonstrates May’s weakness,” said Nick Anstead, a lecturer in political communication at the London School of Economics. “She is very vulnerable to political events that destabilize her government, because she only has very limited room for sacking and reshuffling ministers.” 
That Patel thought she could sit down with someone as high-profile as Netanyahu without first running the idea past her own prime minister feeds the impression that May has no control over her government. That is a marked change from her first year on the job, when ministers had to get permission from the premier’s office to say anything at all. Her authority, along with the ability to hold the reins, collapsed with June’s election drubbing.

“These type of events play into a broader narrative that the government is weak and the prime minister not in control,” Anstead said. 
Moreover, Patel’s letter contained a hint of menace. The pro-Brexit campaigner said she planned to “take an active role” representing local residents now she’s outside government and to “speak up for our country, our national interests and the great future that Britain has as a free, independent and sovereign nation.”

May is looking far less like the Iron Lady and more like a Monty Python sketch.  Cabinet members running around uncontrolled is something we're used to here stateside, but to see it in London is kind of frightening.  Trump gives us a valid excuse for the dysfunction at least.

What's May's excuse?

The Fulcrum Crumbles In Riyadh, Con't

The fallout from Jared Kushner's latest trip to Saudi Arabia continues to pile up and all indications are that the Saudis have been given a tacit green light to go after Iran's Shi'a Gulf State alliance in full.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman continues to roll up his opposition in Riyadh as he fully consolidates power.

Saudi Arabia's attorney general says at least $100bn (£76bn) has been misused through systemic corruption and embezzlement in recent decades. 
Sheikh Saud al-Mojeb said 199 people were being held for questioning as part of a sweeping anti-corruption drive that began on Saturday night. 
He did not name any of them, but they reportedly include senior princes, ministers and influential businessmen. 
"The evidence for this wrongdoing is very strong," Sheikh Mojeb said. 
He also stressed that normal commercial activity in the kingdom had not been affected by the crackdown, and that only personal bank accounts had been frozen. 
Sheikh Saud al-Mojeb said investigations by the supreme anti-corruption committee, which was formed by royal decree and is headed by 32-year-old Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, were "progressing very quickly". 
He announced that 208 individuals had been called in for questioning so far, and that seven of them had been released without charge. 
"The potential scale of corrupt practices which have been uncovered is very large," the attorney general said. 
"Based on our investigations over the past three years, we estimate that at least $100bn has been misused through systematic corruption and embezzlement over several decades."

Make no mistake, MBS wields the political power now.  What of the military power though?  Well, they're going to be a bit busy right now.

Saudi Arabia has ordered its citizens out of Lebanon amid skyrocketing tensions between their two governments.

A brief statement carried by the state-run Saudi Press Agency called on all Saudis living in or visiting Lebanon to depart, and warned against travel to the country.

"Due to the circumstances in the Lebanese Republic, the kingdom asks its citizens who are visiting or residing" in the country to leave it as soon as possible, a Saudi Foreign Ministry source quoted by the agency said
Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri shocked his country Saturday when he announced in a televised statement out of Saudi Arabia that he was resigning. He has not been seen in Lebanon since.

He said his country had been taken hostage by the militant group Hezbollah, a partner in his coalition government and a major foe of Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia says it considers Hezbollah's participation in the Lebanese government an "act of war" against the kingdom.

Bahrain and Kuwait are issuing similar warning to their citizens: get out of Lebanon now.  The storm is coming and it's going to be a bad one.

Saudi military action against Lebanon to fight Hezbollah will certainly draw in Iran, which is what the Saudis, the Israelis, and the Trump regime want.  That's the point.  Of course, other players in the region will have to be dealt with too.  Syria will need to be resolved, but an upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin in Vietnam will work out those details, the most likely will be the end of the Assad regime with Syria under nominal Russian control.  Yemen too will have to dealt with, but the Saudi vice grip on all entrance to the country by land, sea, and air is not going to be a long-term solution, but it is a short-term one.

The Turks are more than happy to look the other way as long as they get to beat up on the Kurds on their border.  Israel gets the go ahead to flatten what's left of the Palestinian Authority.  Everybody gets what they want out of the deal, including Trump.

It's a race at this point to see who Trump ends up with at war with first, Tehran or Pyongyang.  The truth of what went on in Jared Kushner's meeting with MBS, when it comes out, is going to be shocking.  But make no mistake, an illegitimate American president is now hurtling towards global conflict in order to wash away his domestic problems with blood.

We're very close now to a point of no return.

Cranley Comes Through

Several mayoral contests were settled Tuesday, including Cincinnati, where John Cranley was able to win re-election defeating Yvette Simpson.  The Enquirer's Jason Williams has Cranley's keys:

1. He humbled himself and did something he's never done before. 
Actually, Simpson humbled him in that woeful-turnout primary. That woke the bear, and the next day Cranley began overhauling his campaign. The two weeks afterward were rough. He had to make the tough decision to remove long-time friend and right-hand man Jay Kincaid as campaign manager. Kincaid is a masterful political strategist, the brains behind Cranley's decisive win over Roxanne Qualls in 2013. 
But Kincaid's strength is media messaging, and Cranley needed someone to run a robust door-knocking operation after spending nearly $1 million on TV and radio ads in the primary. The ground game and connecting directly with voters became chic again after Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders did it in the presidential race.

And he did.  Cranley's not a bad guy, even for a moderate Dem, but he understood the issue was turnout, and he turned out the voters.

2. Cranley used one issue to expose Simpson's flaws and define the race. 
Simpson's momentum came to a screeching halt on Aug. 7, the day she surprisingly introduced a motion demanding Children's Hospital hand over millions of dollars to Avondale in exchange for her support of a zoning change on a mega-expansion project.

The skilled politician, Cranley went to work doing what he does best – exploiting his political foes' mistakes. He repeatedly hammered Simpson on the Children's issue all the way until Election Day. Simpson's campaign spiraled downward. She allowed Cranley to define her and the race with the Children's issue.

Cincinnati is pretty proud of Children's Hospital, it's a world-class facility.  But Simpson got smoked on this.  Yes, she was fighting for much-needed neighborhood improvement in Avondale, but it came at the expense of grabbing onto a third rail, voltage be damned.  This is where she really lost the race.

3. Real people had their say.

Cincinnati doesn't live in the Over-the-Rhine bubble. This election proved the so-called progressives remain in the political minority in this town, despite all the hubbub about the streetcar and noise they make in the Facebook echo chamber. 
That vocal minority would have you believe that Simpson was loved and Cranley loathed across the city. Turns out, Simpson's support is probably an inch wide and a mile deep. Meanwhile, Cranley's is a mile wide and an inch deep. 
Overall, Cranley has done more for the everyday citizen. Politics Extra believes this is where his focus on basic government services, keeping the streets safe and giving city union workers raises paid off. More people care about having their streets paved and garbage picked up on time than whether the city has a spiffy Downtown streetcar.

I think Williams is far less correct here.  Cranley did do a lot to piss people off over four years.  He ran specifically on trashing the streetcar project four years ago and won, then ran into Simpson and City Council and the "real people" of Cincinnati, who have made the project a success so far. He picked a lot of stupid fights with City Council and lost them, and was at best neutral in the Ray Tensing trial that saw Sam DuBose's killer go free earlier this year, and he was way in over his head with the mess over Cincy's new police chief.  There was a reason he lost the primary to Simpson in the spring.

Cranley frankly should have lost yesterday too, but Simpson buried herself with the Children's Hospital issue.  That was a fatal mistake, and it gave Cranley the win.

So we'll have a decent mayor instead of a great one.  Cincinnati's seen worse.

StupidiNews!

Wednesday, November 8, 2017

Bitter Ingredients, Bitter Nazis, Papa John's

Papa John's Pizza is based here in Kentucky (Louisville is home to both it and competitor Yum! Brands and Pizza Hut, go figure we're the capital of greasy food) and CEO and founder John Schnatter made headlines last week complaining that the pizza delivery chain's 2017 financial woes were directly the problem of people boycotting the NFL over Black Lives Matter and Colin Kaepernick.

Papa John's is reevaluating its NFL sponsorship after controversyinvolving players' protests during the national anthem engulfed the chain.

"If the viewership decline continues, we will need to shift into things that work more effectively for us," Papa John’s President and Chief Operating Officer Steve Ritchie told the Wall Street Journal on Friday.

On Wednesday, Papa John's CEO and founder John Schnatter slammed the NFL, blaming the league's "poor leadership" and declining ratings on the pizza chain's sales slump. According to Schnatter, controversy surrounding players' protests had played a role in ratings decline.

Makes sense, ratings are down, pizza sales are down, so it must be black peoples' fault!

The problem is Schnatter now has a much, much bigger issue on his hands: the neo-Nazis have latched onto him as not only the official pizza of the NFL, but the "official pizza of white supremacy".

Neo-Nazis and white supremacists have always been distasteful, but now it turns out their taste in pizza is terrible, too. 
The white supremacist website the Daily Stormer announced Thursday that Papa John’s pizza is the official pie of the alt-right, posting a picture of a pizza with a swastika fashioned from pepperoni slices. The caption reads, "Papa John: Official pizza of the alt-right?"

That had Schnatter scrambling for clean-up over the weekend trying to desperately distance his pizza chain from actual Nazis.

But after the Nazi pizza fiasco, Papa Johns issued a clear message to neo-Nazis and other hate groups, warning them off their products. 
Peter Collins, the senior director of public relations at Papa Johns, said in a statement: “We condemn racism in all forms and any and all hate groups that support it.” 
“We do not want these individuals or groups to buy our pizza,” he added. 
Papa Johns CEO John Schnatter’s comments about the NFL were widely criticized, after he suggested he would be pulling advertising from the league over the police brutality protests.

You don't get much more of a confirmation that your CEO's comments on Black Lives Matter protests in the NFL were stupidly racist than actual Nazis publicly agreeing with you and telling other Nazis to buy your company's product, guys.  That's pretty much the max level on that one.

I kind of feel a bit sorry for Peter Collins here, this is one hell of a shitshow and he's probably going to get fired because the guy he works for put out such a series of dog whistle racist comments that Nazis showed up to applaud it.  As a PR professional, that's about as bad as it gets.

By the way, I stopped eating Papa John's more than once every couple of months because there's much better pizza in Cincinnati, Schnatter's always been an asshole, and I used to work there in college so I know what goes in the pies.

Don't eat there.  Trust me.

The Fulcrum Crumbles In Riyadh, Con't

I talked earlier this week about the precipitous events in Saudi Arabia over the weekend as Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has locked down power in the kingdom by convincing his father, King Salman, to appoint him as head of an anti-corruption commission where he promptly took out dozens of his own family members in a coup.

Meanwhile, MBS is the man behind the Saudi military intervention in Yemen, which has now led to a larger humanitarian crisis than Syria by a factor of millions more displaced.  MBS is a religious and cultural moderate, but a massive military hawk and autocrat who sees himself as the benevolent leader that the Saudis must have to make it in a future without oil.  Saudi Arabia has already made moves on Qatar and Lebanon, blockading the former through a botched coup attempt and crushing the latter in a vice as that country's former PM resigned and fled to Riyadh over the weekend as well.

But MBS's true goal is to go after Iran, as this conflict is as old as the Shi'a/Sunni split is Islam. So far it's been a bloody proxy war.  But in the Trump era, that's turning into the distinct possibility of a more direct conflict.  Tuesday, Saudi Arabia upped the ante big time.

Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has accused Iran of an act of "direct military aggression" by supplying missiles to rebels in Yemen. 
This "may be considered an act of war", state media quoted the prince as telling UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson in a telephone conversation. 
On Saturday, a ballistic missile was intercepted near the Saudi capital. 
Iran denies arming the Houthi movement, which has fought a Saudi-led coalition backing Yemen's government since 2015. 
Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said the prince's claim was "dangerous". 
Houthi-aligned media reported that the rebels had fired a Burkan H2 ballistic missile at King Khaled International Airport, which is 850km (530 miles) from the Yemeni border and 11km north-east of Riyadh. Saudi missile defences intercepted the missile in flight, but some fragments fell inside the airport area. 
Human Rights Watch said the launch of an indiscriminate missile at a predominantly civilian airport was an apparent war crime.

There's no doubt that both the Trump regime in Washington and the Netanyahu government in Israel, both rocked by domestic scandals, would want a welcome distraction backing the Saudis in a fight against Tehran.

Stay tuned.

The Lessons Of Tuesday Night

Why did Ralph Northam win Virginia's gubernatorial last night by nearly ten points?  Black, Asian, and Latinx voters, and especially black women.


Gillespie won both white men and...surprise!...white women (Nobody should be surprised by this, actually.)  It wasn't women who gave Ralph Northam the win, it was women of color who gave him the win. Among white voters, who still made up two-thirds of voters last night, Gillespie had a cake walk and won going away.

Enough black voters turned out to not only stop Gillespie cold, but to pick up the seats they needed in order to, along with Northam's win and Democrat Justin Fairfax's win as the state's new black Lt. Governor, take control of the state's House of Delegates in a 50-50 split by picking up a whopping 16 seats.

Northam has about an 8.5% win.  That's pretty much the exact margin black women gave him overall.  Without black women, this is a tie race.  With them, Northam won easily.

Oh, and with Dems winning the Washington State Senate special election and New Jersey's gubernatorial race, that's three states last night that went from split to Democratic control.

Maine too voted to expand Medicaid.  Overwhelmingly.

Thanks, Donny!

The lesson is when black voters show up, Democrats win and win BIG. We know this. What I don't know why we're trying to worry about winning back white men who voted for Republicans by a 27 point margin.  Get more black votes out.  Fight voter suppression.  Jesus, it's not multi-variable calculus, guys.

Republicans know this lesson well and have been trying to disenfranchise black voters for decades exactly because they know black voters win election for Dems because we vote for Dems. Duh.

Why some Democrats still yet don't understand this, I'll never know.

StupidiNews!

Tuesday, November 7, 2017

Last Call For Making The Case

The FOX-ification of the American political landscape has so poisoned the country to the very idea that government can ever work, that even a year into the Trump era, the Democrats have their worst brand polling since Reagan/Bush.

Favorable views of the Democratic Party have dropped to their lowest mark in more than a quarter century of polling, according to new numbers from a CNN poll conducted by SSRS
Only 37% of Americans have a favorable opinion of Democrats, down from 44% in March of this year. A majority, 54%, have an unfavorable view, matching their highest mark in polls from CNN and SSRS, CNN/ORC and CNN/USA Today/Gallup stretching back to 1992. 
The rating includes low favorable ratings from some core Democratic groups, including nonwhites (48%) and people under 35 years old (33%). The numbers come amid recent feuds and divisions in the Democratic Party, as former interim chair Donna Brazile's new book has unveiled new questions about infighting during the 2016 presidential campaign.
But the Republican Party isn't doing any better, with just 30% of Americans holding a favorable view. That's essentially the same as September, when the rating hit its lowest point in polling back to 1992, but down from 42% in March. A broad 6 in 10, 61%, have an unfavorable opinion. 
This means both parties sit at or near rock bottom as voters go to the polls across the country on Tuesday, most prominently in governor's races in Virginia and New Jersey, as well as dozens of local and mayoral races nationwide. 
A substantial 33% of liberals and 41% of conservatives have unfavorable views of the Democratic and Republican parties, respectively. Plus, 4 in 10 independents, 42%, say they have an unfavorable view of both parties vs. only 8% who say they have a favorable view of both. 
Indeed, a bare majority of Americans, 51%, say it's bad for the country that the Republican Party is in control of Congress. Only 38% say GOP control is good for the nation. That's worse than at any point in CNN's polling on the Democratic majority in Congress between 2007 and 2010.

Democratic approval isn't going to get better anytime soon either, not with Millennials polling the Dems at 33%.  America's younger voters have essentially given up on the two-party system as is after Obama.  They're done with both parties, the Republicans come in at a worse 28% among Millennials.

But frankly, Ralph Northam just whipped Ed Gillespie's ass tonight ANYWAY.

We won.  BIG.

Dems in 2018.

The Other Races Today

Virginia's gubernatorial race today has gotten a lot of coverage, but as Matt Yglesias reminds us, other state issues and several mayoral races will have a major impact on 2018 and 2020 politics.

National media coverage of Tuesday’s elections has focused fairly overwhelmingly on the governor’s race in Virginia, which seems to be close and features some interesting storylines about Ed Gillespie’s race-baiting electioneering tactics, which, if successful, will likely prove to be a model for Republicans nationwide. 
But the policy stakes outside Virginia — in the not-so-close gubernatorial election in New Jersey, a Washington state Senate special election, and a Maine ballot initiative to expand Medicaid — are equally high. These other races haven’t attracted as much attention because they’re less interesting from a horse-race perspective. The New Jersey race looks set to be a Democratic blowout, the state Senate special in the suburbs of Seattle is lightly polled but also seems to clearly favor Democrats, and the paucity of polling in Maine makes it hard to construct any kind of narrative. 
Yet Democratic victories in these three races have huge effects. An expected Democratic win in New Jersey would create a Democratic trifecta in a blue state — potentially unleashing a wave of progressive policymaking that’s been stifled by eight years of Chris Christie. Flipping Washington’s state Senate from a one-vote GOP majority to a one-vote Democratic majority will also create a Democratic trifecta; a narrow legislative margin but one that creates new opportunities when combined with Washington state’s stronger fiscal position. Medicaid expansion in Maine would be a huge deal for the estimated 70,000 Mainers newly qualified for the program and a shot in the arm to rural hospitals.

And this is big news because Dems getting full control of New Jersey and Washington State back means they'll be much better equipped to battle Trump regime nonsense going into next year and in 2020 when redistricting and the White House are both on the line.  Dems need all the help they can get.

Not to mention tens of thousands of Mainers getting access to health care, in a state that has been badly abused by the racist austerity idiocy of GOP Gov. Paul LePage.  A vote to expand Medicaid in the Trump era would send shockwaves through all 50 states, period.

Here's hoping that I have good news to report tomorrow as well.

The Smarmy Army Of Harvey

Ronan Farrow, the one-time MSNBC wunderkind host unceremoniously booted out for low ratings, has redeemed himself with breaking the Harvey Weinstein sexual assault file wide open.  But Farrow isn't done with Weinstein's awful legacy just yet, dropping yet another New Yorker bombshell on how the disgraced media mogul turned to ex-Mossad agents for hire in order to run his own intelligence operation against the women he had assaulted.



In the fall of 2016, Harvey Weinstein set out to suppress allegations that he had sexually harassed or assaulted numerous women. He began to hire private security agencies to collect information on the women and the journalists trying to expose the allegations. According to dozens of pages of documents, and seven people directly involved in the effort, the firms that Weinstein hired included Kroll, which is one of the world’s largest corporate-intelligence companies, and Black Cube, an enterprise run largely by former officers of Mossad and other Israeli intelligence agencies. Black Cube, which has branches in Tel Aviv, London, and Paris, offers its clients the skills of operatives “highly experienced and trained in Israel’s elite military and governmental intelligence units,” according to its literature. 
Two private investigators from Black Cube, using false identities, met with the actress Rose McGowan, who eventually publicly accused Weinstein of rape, to extract information from her. One of the investigators pretended to be a women’s-rights advocate and secretly recorded at least four meetings with McGowan. The same operative, using a different false identity and implying that she had an allegation against Weinstein, met twice with a journalist to find out which women were talking to the press. In other cases, journalists directed by Weinstein or the private investigators interviewed women and reported back the details. 
The explicit goal of the investigations, laid out in one contract with Black Cube, signed in July, was to stop the publication of the abuse allegations against Weinstein that eventually emerged in the New York Times and The New YorkerOver the course of a year, Weinstein had the agencies “target,” or collect information on, dozens of individuals, and compile psychological profiles that sometimes focussed on their personal or sexual histories. Weinstein monitored the progress of the investigations personally. He also enlisted former employees from his film enterprises to join in the effort, collecting names and placing calls that, according to some sources who received them, felt intimidating. 
In some cases, the investigative effort was run through Weinstein’s lawyers, including David Boies, a celebrated attorney who represented Al Gore in the 2000 Presidential-election dispute and argued for marriage equality before the U.S. Supreme Court. Boies personally signed the contract directing Black Cube to attempt to uncover information that would stop the publication of a Times story about Weinstein’s abuses, while his firm was also representing the Times, including in a libel case. 
Boies confirmed that his firm contracted with and paid two of the agencies and that investigators from one of them sent him reports, which were then passed on to Weinstein. He said that he did not select the firms or direct the investigators’ work. He also denied that the work regarding the Times story represented a conflict of interest. Boies said that his firm’s involvement with the investigators was a mistake. “We should not have been contracting with and paying investigators that we did not select and direct,” he told me. “At the time, it seemed a reasonable accommodation for a client, but it was not thought through, and that was my mistake. It was a mistake at the time.” 
Techniques like the ones used by the agencies on Weinstein’s behalf are almost always kept secret, and, because such relationships are often run through law firms, the investigations are theoretically protected by attorney-client privilege, which could prevent them from being disclosed in court. The documents and sources reveal the tools and tactics available to powerful individuals to suppress negative stories and, in some cases, forestall criminal investigations. 
In a statement, Weinstein’s spokesperson, Sallie Hofmeister, said, “It is a fiction to suggest that any individuals were targeted or suppressed at any time.”

In other words, Weinstein had a paid, world-class intelligence network at his disposal with the express intent of gaining leverage over anyone who might have spilled his story into the public spotlight.  He also had his former employees working for him, intimidated into being his eyes and ears.

In the end, it failed and Farrow was able to break the original story as well as this one.

Maybe the kid actually knows what he's doing.

StupidiNews!

Monday, November 6, 2017

Last Call For That Poll-Asked Look

Ahead of tomorrow's gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey, Democrats are looking they best they have since, well, the last time we got stuck with an incompetently criminal/criminally incompetent GOP government.

Voters say they prefer Democratic candidates for the House of Representatives over Republicans by the widest margin in over a decade, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll — a fresh sign of trouble for the GOP majority one year before the midterm elections.

But Democrats’ effort to convert widespread disapproval of President Trump into victories in 2018 could be undercut by lower turnout, with Republicans expressing just as much motivation to vote in next year’s elections.

A slim 51 percent majority of registered voters say that if the election were held today, they would vote for or lean toward the Democratic candidate in their congressional district, while 40 percent say they would choose the Republican.

That’s the biggest spread in a Post-ABC survey since October 2006, just weeks before a midterm in which Democrats won back control of the House and Senate amid deep dissatisfaction with then-President George W. Bush and the Iraq War. 
In recent history, regardless of the political climate, Democrats have tended to hold an advantage on this “generic ballot” question, which does not name specific candidates. On the eve of the 2014 and 2010 midterms, both banner elections for the GOP, Post-ABC surveys found Republicans trailed Democrats by three and five percentage points among registered voters, respectively. Those margins flipped in Republicans’ favor among the smaller population of likely voters who were more motivated to turn out. The latest Post-ABC survey does not measure likely voters given that the election is still a year away.
Still, an edge of 11 points, even among registered voters, is an encouraging sign for Democrats a year before Trump’s first midterm — an election cycle that historically has been unkind to the sitting president’s party. 
The findings come as congressional Republicans are trying to rehabilitate their brand after months of infighting and a failure to produce any major legislative achievements despite controlling the House, Senate and White House.

Sadly, an eleven-point lead is pretty much what we need to start to be competitive in House races given the GOP's massive advantage in midterm turnout, gerrymandering, and voter suppression..and that's just to get us to the point where we can talk about maybe taking the House back.  The reality is that it would take something like a 14- or 15-point generic ballot lead to get us up to a 50-50 proposition or so.

It's not impossible, but it would take far more turnout than we've seen in 2010 or the abysmally low 2014 to get it done, and the Trumpista cult will definitely be out to vote.

We've got to turn people out to vote.  Another 2014-level performance and the GOP will end up with the 34 state legislatures they need to call a Constitutional Convention, something they've long wanted to do.

Tomorrow is just as important, by the way.  An Ed Gillespie win in Virginia would give the GOP complete control of 27 states and gerrymandering rights in Richmond, and should they get currently split Colorado or Maine in 2018 on top of that, it's over.

And then everything goes straight to hell.
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