Burning Lake Of Fire, Con't

Perennial loser Kari Lake is trying to win Arizona's three-way US Senate race by promising she won't support a national abortion ban, and that's not going over well with the Republicans who are expected to give her an easy primary win. She's not alone by any means in backstabbing her MAGA base when it comes to an untenable position against abortion in the general election stage, either.

Kari Lake campaigned for governor of Arizona last year as a fierce ally of former President Donald J. Trump who was in lock step with her party’s right-wing base, calling abortion the “ultimate sin” and supporting the state’s Civil War-era restrictions on the procedure.

This week, she made a remarkable shift on the issue as she opened her bid for the U.S. Senate: She declared her opposition to a federal ban.

“Republicans allowed Democrats to define them on abortion,” Ms. Lake said in a statement to The New York Times about her break from the policy prescription favored by many anti-abortion groups and most of her party’s presidential contenders. She added that she supported additional resources for pregnant women, and that “just like President Trump, I believe this issue of abortion should be left to the states.”

The maneuvering by Ms. Lake, along with similar adjustments by Republican Senate candidates in Pennsylvania and Michigan, is part of a broader strategic effort in her party to recalibrate on an issue that has become a political albatross in battleground states and beyond.

Since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade last year, eliminating federal protections for abortion rights and handing Republicans one of their most significant policy victories in a generation, voters have turned out repeatedly to support abortion rights, even in red states.

The campaign arm for Senate Republicans, the National Republican Senatorial Committee, is now coaching candidates to take the same tack as Ms. Lake — that is, clearly state their opposition to a national abortion ban, according to people familiar with the new strategy.

The group has also urged candidates to state their support for “reasonable limits” on late-term abortions with exceptions for rape, incest and the life of the mother, the people said. Rather than trying to avoid the topic, like many candidates did last year, it is advising Republicans to go on offense.

Senate Republicans were briefed last month on detailed research commissioned by One Nation, a nonprofit group aligned with Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the minority leader, showing that many Americans equated the term “pro-life” — traditionally used by Republicans — with support for a total ban on abortion without any exceptions.

The research also showed that while voters opposed the idea of a total ban, there was wider support for restrictions after 12 to 15 weeks of pregnancy, particularly with exceptions for rape, incest and the life or health of the mother.

The nonprofit has suggested that Republicans communicate their views on abortion with empathy and compassion. Steven Law, who is the president of One Nation, is also the president of the Senate Leadership Fund, which has spent more than $1 billion on federal campaigns since 2016.

Whether or not Republican candidates for Congress — and the White House — can persuade voters that they have become more moderate on abortion promises to be one of the central questions of the 2024 elections.

“Voters have repeatedly rejected Republican politicians for supporting dangerous policies that deny a woman’s right to access abortion,” Sarah Guggenheimer, the spokesperson for the Senate Majority political action committee dedicated to electing Democratic candidates. “This cynical effort by Mitch McConnell and Republican candidates to mask their positions won’t change that.”

 

The problem of course is that the MAGA chuds aren't going to accept anything less than a permanent national abortion ban that jails half the population, including doctors, nurses and activists. The even bigger problem is even the "compromise" position still gives control of wombs and the folks that have them to the state. 

Democrats are right that this is a cynical ploy, and fewer and fewer voters are going to buy it.

Last Call For Meet The New Ringmaster, Again

With Steve Scalise out. the House GOP is now turning to Trump-endorsed Rep. Jim Jordan as a Speaker candidate, and it looks like Jordan has even less support than Scalise did.

The House GOP has entered an angrier and more bewildered phase in its leadership crisis.

The fractious Republican conference has rejected a second speaker hopeful in eight days — this time, Kevin McCarthy’s longtime heir apparent, Steve Scalise. While Republicans appear to be turning next to Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), some are already airing open doubts that Jordan can pull off what the majority leader couldn’t.

The lesson Republicans have learned in the frenetic week since McCarthy’s fall: They have no clear choice for leader who can unite their ranks — no matter how long this drags out and their chamber of Congress is paralyzed.

It’s not just GOP centrists sparring with the hard right. It’s not just McCarthy loyalists secretly fuming at Scalise or his allies. There’s mounting anger across the entire conference that no GOP speaker candidate, including Jordan, appears able to prevail under the current margins.

“We need to all recognize that this is much bigger than just one person or any single person’s petty feelings,” said Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R-N.Y.), who had voted for Jordan but publicly backed Scalise after he won the internal election.

It won’t be easy for any candidate to get past the internal spats that have only worsened as the GOP’s speaker fight drags on with no end in sight.

“Personally, I think it may end up being a compromise candidate,” Rep. Greg Murphy (R-N.C.) said. While Murphy said there was “no doubt” Jordan would run, he acknowledged that getting the needed 217 GOP votes is “going to be hard.”

At some point, I would expect the Democrats to make a move here, with more backchannel routes and somebody Hakeem Jeffries can support. In a logical world, that would mean peeling off a half-dozen Republican to vote for Jeffries himself.

Of course, in a logical world, Jeffries would have been Speaker already. 

Orange Meltldown, Con't

The Trump Organization fraud trial in Manhattan continued as formed CFO Allen Weisselberg took the stand for a second day, but that testimony was cut short as NY AG Tish James's office confirmed they were looking into a Forbes Magazine report from Thursday claiming that Weisselberg committed perjury Tuesday when testifying about the value of Trump's properties in the state.

The Trump Organization’s former chief financial officer Allen Weisselberg’s testimony reached an abrupt and unexpected end on Thursday afternoon, just hours after Forbes magazine accused the convicted tax cheat of perjuring himself during an earlier stint as a witness.

Weisselberg insisted on Tuesday from the witness stand that he “never focused” on calculating the square footage of the former president’s Trump Tower triplex, a three-floor penthouse in his namesake skyscraper.

Two days later, on Thursday, Forbes reported that emails not currently in the attorney general’s possession show otherwise.

A source close to New York Attorney General Letitia James confirmed that her office is looking into the latest Forbes report.

Hours after the publication of that story, Manhattan Supreme Court Justice Arthur Engoron convened a sidebar with attorneys for the state and defense, but the subject of their private huddle remains unknown. Weisselberg was excused for the day shortly after that conversation, as attorneys for both sides reserved the right to call him back.

I'm not lawyer, but this seems really bad for both Weisselberg and for Trump's defense in the case.

Forbes senior editor Dan Alexander wrote that his old emails and reporter notes contradict those denials, pointing out in his story that "Weisselberg absolutely thought about Trump’s apartment—and played a key role in trying to convince Forbes over the course of several years that it was worth more than it really was."

"Given the fact that these discussions continued for years, and that Weisselberg took a very detailed approach in reviewing Trump’s assets with Forbes, it defies all logic to think he truly believes what he is now saying in court," Alexander added.

Earlier this week, Trump attacked Alexander by name on Truth Social, labeling him a “psycho” and his news organization a “rag" after it dropped the former president from its world billionaires list for the second time in three years. 

Those Trump social media comments were also posted hours after James entered a series of Forbes’ fact-checking emails with Weisselberg and other executives into evidence. Alexander, whose byline appeared on the story knocking Trump off Forbes’ billionaires list, was one of the staffers who sent those emails.

Considering Trump's overinflation of the value of his properties is at the heart of this fraud case, I'm betting Trump wish Weisselberg had kept his mouth shut, or at least taken the 5th because he definitely screwed up here.

We'll see what the results are, but at this point if there was any shred of hope that Trump would prevail, that hope died screaming as it was shot into the sun. 

Last Call For The GOP Circus Of The Damned, Con't

It's quite obvious that Rep. Steve Scalise doesn't have the votes for Speaker, and he's turning to House GOP Armed Services committee chair Rep. Mike Rogers to make an overture to House Democratic Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries to play Let's Make A Deal! again.

 

“They put us in this ditch along with eight traitors,” Rogers said, referring to hardline GOP dissidents who toppled Speaker Kevin McCarthy last week. “We’re still the majority party, we’re willing to work with them, but they gotta tell us what they need.”

Rogers said the Republicans’ speaker nominee, Steve Scalise, is in the same situation McCarthy was in struggling to get the 217 votes needed for election. A lot of Republicans, Rogers said, would never vote for conservative firebrand Jim Jordan, who narrowly lost to Scalise on a secret ballot vote Wednesday.

“To limit ourselves to just getting 217 out of our conference I think is not a wise path forward,” Rogers said.

Rogers said the disarray in the House is endangering US national security and preventing approval for aid to Israel in its war with Hamas.

“It is perilous what’s happening in Israel right now. It could get much worse,” Rogers said. “And we’re paralyzed right now.”

 

Jeffries has Scalise, Rogers, and the GOP Clown Show over a barrel, and it's the worst-kept secret in Washington.  The October 7th attack by Hamas has suddenly made it very necessary for the Speaker fight to be ended.

Democrats are ready to form a bipartisan coalition to lead the House, Jeffries said.

“The House of Representatives has been broken by chaos, dysfunction and extremism,” Jeffries said. “The only way out is to enter into an enlightened bipartisan coalition of the willing in order to get things back on track.”

The leadership vacuum in the US House has rendered Congress unable to act on legislation.

Another Republican, David Joyce of Ohio, told reporters he’s contacted Democrats about expanding the authority of acting Speaker Pro Tem Patrick McHenry of North Carolina so that the House can act on legislation. Joyce said he has proposed granting McHenry such powers for a limited period of time — perhaps 30 or 60 days — and Democrats have been amenable to that approach to act on issues like Israel.

Steve Womack, a senior Republican appropriator, supports that idea. The “only other option,” he said, is for Democrats to enable election of a Republican speaker nominee by voting “present,” lowering the threshold needed for victory.

Jeffries has offered discussions on a bipartisan path forward. But Rogers said Democrats should make a specific offer that could provide a basis for opening negotiations.

“They haven’t offered jack,” Rogers said.

 

It's not on Hakeem Jeffries or the Democrats to offer the Clown Show anything. You'd think someone would tell Rogers his negotiation position is the equivalent of a man standing on a burning bridge. Besides, McCarthy made it clear he wouldn't negotiate in good faith, and it looks like Rogers is going down this same path.

We'll see what backchannel offers can be brought up, but my guess is that Jeffries has had plenty of time to name his price to help Scalise, and who knows if the Clown Show will agree to anything.

[UPDATE] No, they won't. Scalise has withdrawn his name from the race for Speaker.

The Clown Show rolls on.

Orange Meltdown, Israel Edition

Donald Trump may be a blithering chaos elemental, but he does tend to follow a couple of rules in general, which explains him turning on Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday night.

 

Donald Trump lashed out at Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, telling a crowd of Florida supporters that the countries' intelligence failed, and its enemies were ''very smart."

"I'll never forget that Bibi Netanyahu let us down," Trump told a group of supporters Wednesday in West Palm Beach, Fla. "That was a very terrible thing."

Trump discussed the operation that killed Iranian military leader Qasem Soleimani in early 2020. The former president said Israel now has to strengthen itself as it fights Hamas and other militant groups, including perhaps Iran.

Supporters of Israel said on social media said that the Soleimani operation was aided by Israeli intelligence, while others criticized Trump for criticizing Israel's government in the midst of a crisis.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is running against Trump for the Republican nomination, zeroed in on Trump's description of Hezbollah leaders as "very smart."

Noting that at least 1,200 Israelis and 22 Americans have been killed in recent days, DeSantis said on the X website that "it is absurd that anyone, much less someone running for President, would choose now to attack our friend and ally, Israel, much less praise Hezbollah terrorists as 'very smart.' As President, I will stand with Israel and treat terrorists like the scum that they are."

During what was otherwise a campaign speech, Trump claimed that an unnamed U.S. official described Israel as being vulnerable from the north, and that kind of information would be helpful to adversaries.

"You know, Hezbollah is very smart - they're all very smart," Trump said at one point.

 

Many of you have already sussed out these rules, and they follow a pattern that explains Trump's modus operandi here.

 

First, Trump doesn't like "losers". He's seen Netanyahu come under attack for critical intelligence failures at best on the Hamas attack and at worst, being warned and letting it happen anyway. 

Mounting questions over Israel’s massive intelligence failure to anticipate and prepare for a surprise Hamas assault were compounded Monday when an Egyptian intelligence official said that Jerusalem had ignored repeated warnings that the Gaza-based terror group was planning “something big” — which included an apparent direct notice from Cairo’s intelligence minister to the prime minister.

The Egyptian official said Egypt, which often serves as a mediator between Israel and Hamas, had spoken repeatedly with the Israelis about “something big,” without elaborating.

He said Israeli officials were focused on the West Bank and played down the threat from Gaza. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government is made up of supporters of West Bank settlers who have demanded a security crackdown there in the face of a rising tide of violence over the last 18 months.

“We have warned them an explosion of the situation is coming, and very soon, and it would be big. But they underestimated such warnings,” the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he wasn’t authorized to discuss the content of sensitive intelligence discussions with the media, told The Associated Press.

Netanyahu denied receiving any such advance warning, saying in the course of an address to the nation Monday night that the story was “fake news.”

 

The problem for Bibi is that House Republicans are backing this intel. 

Egyptian intelligence officials warned their Israeli counterparts of a a possible terror attack days before Hamas slaughtered at least 1,300 people, according to the Republican chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee — who said Wednesday he doesn’t know how Israel and the US missed the signs.

“We know the Egyptian intelligence service handed this off days before the terrorist invasion, if you will, or attack,” Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas) told CNN following a closed-door intelligence briefing. “So, there’s a lot of questions about that.”

 

Second, more than a few pundits and pols have accused Trump of being complicit in the Hamas attack with his failed foreign policy, the loudest voice being Trump's own former VP, Mike Pence.

Former Vice President Mike Pence tore into Donald Trump and pointed to isolationism in the Republican Party as complicit in the sweeping Hamas attack on Israel, decrying American “retreat on the world stage.”

In a scathing rebuke, Pence faulted “voices of appeasement like Donald Trump, Vivek Ramaswamy and Ron DeSantis that I believe have run contrary to the tradition in our party that America is the leader of the free world.”

Pence’s comments in Iowa represented the first ripple in the Republican primary from the violence that erupted on Saturday — and effectively threw down a challenge to Republicans he said have “embraced the language of isolationism and appeasement.”

The role of the United States in maintaining global security is one of the most important points of friction between the Republican presidential candidates — one that could now erupt in a new way because of the violence in Israel. Pence’s criticism of Trump was uncharacteristically pointed. But it was even more remarkable for the break it represented in their previously lockstep approach to Israel. Once a signature priority of the Trump-Pence administration, the U.S.-Israel relationship Saturday was suddenly becoming a wedge issue between them.

Faulting President Joe Biden for “projecting weakness on the world stage,” Pence also pointed an accusatory finger rightward at an event here near the Nebraska border.

“This is also what happens when you have leaders in the Republican Party signaling retreat on the world stage,” Pence said.

 

Third, the Biden administration is backing Netanyahu and his war council, which means Trump will do the opposite. 

As Israel prepares to launch a likely ground invasion into Gaza, the Biden Administration and leading members of Congress are crafting an American aid package of roughly $2 billion in supplementary funding to support the nation’s war effort against Hamas, multiple sources familiar with the matter tell TIME.

The funding would go toward replenishing Israel’s stockpile of interceptors for its Iron Dome missile-defense system, artillery shells, and other munitions. If approved, the assistance would come at a crucial time for Israel, as it gears for a lengthy and devastating offensive against the terror group that brutally massacred more than 1,200 Israelis in Saturday’s surprise attack.

“We’re heading into a war for many, many weeks, maybe several months, in which the objective is to dismantle Hamas,” Rep. Brad Sherman, a California Democrat, told TIME shortly after attending a briefing from White House officials on the situation. “It will be perhaps the highest casualty war Israel has faced since the War of Independence,” he added, referring to the 1948 blitz that five Arab nations waged against Israel shortly after its establishment. “But Israel didn’t ask for this.”

 

Finally, Trump never passes on an opportunity to be a raging antisemite and an Islamophobe if he can do both at the same time. 

Dumping Bibi under the bus accomplishes Trump's agenda on all four of those points. Expect a harder line against Israel's nearly assured Gaza invasion in the weeks and months to come.

Meet The New Ringmaster Of The GOP Clown Show

As expected, a majority of the House Republican caucus decided on Rep. Steve Scalise as their candidate for House Speaker rather than Rep. Jim Jordan, a direct repudiation of Trump's endorsement (everything he touches still turns to shit though). But the concept of Scalise getting 218 votes however still looks very elusive.

 

House Republicans on Wednesday nominated Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) to be the next Speaker, sending his candidacy to the House floor following Rep. Kevin McCarthy’s (R-Calif.) stunning ouster last week, multiple lawmakers told The Hill.

Scalise secured the nomination 113-99 in a closed-door GOP conference meeting, defeating House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) in a close race that did not have a clear front-runner heading into the internal vote.

Scalise will now take his candidacy to the House floor, where he will be up against House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), who Democrats nominated for Speaker on Tuesday night.

The floor fight could get messy. Candidates need the support of a majority of the chamber to take control of the gavel and Republicans hold a razor-thin majority. McCarthy required 15 rounds of voting to secure the gavel.

Multiple Republicans have already said they won’t vote for Scalise on the floor and others remained non-committal.

Jordan, however, said he offered to deliver a nominating speech on Scalise’s behalf.

Scalise’s nomination marks the pinnacle of his congressional career, which began in 2008 and has spanned more than nine years in leadership, including stints as Republican whip and, most recently, majority leader.

Throughout the week-long race for the top spot, Scalise branded himself as the Republican who could unite the conference following McCarthy’s ouster, which bitterly divided the GOP and inflamed tensions within the party.

“I’ve got a long history of bringing people together, uniting Republicans, focusing on the issues that we’ve got to do to address the issues we came here to do to get our country back on track,” Scalise told Fox Business in an interview Tuesday.

 

Yeah, let's have a little chat about Steve, shall we?  Remember how he spoke at a white supremacist hoedown with fellow Louisiana trash beast David Duke in 2014? ZVTS remembers, as does CNN.

The story has all the traits of a career-ending political scandal:

A congressman who recently snagged a top position in party leadership faces accusations that he addressed a hate group run by a notorious white supremacist. And all of that, just a week before his party is set to take the reigns of power in Congress.

But the fast rising career of Republican Rep. Steve Scalise, who was tapped as House Majority Whip this summer, may not be in the ditches just yet. There’s a lot to keep track of. Here’s what you need to know:

So what happened?

It turns out Scalise addressed an anti-Semitic, white supremacist group back in 2002 run by none other than David Duke, a former grand wizard of the Klu Klux Klan who is well-known in Scalise’s home state of Louisiana because of several statewide campaigns for governor and senator.

A liberal Louisiana politics blogger revealed the encounter with the European-American Unity and Rights Organization (EURO) after finding an account of Scalise’s speech to the group on a white supremacist forum.

The group is bad news for Scalise: it’s been labeled as a hate group by the Southern Poverty Law Center, which details the group’s anti-semitic, racist views.

The next day, reporters in D.C. were asking Scalise’s office about the meeting and after aides first said it was “probable” and then “likely” the congressman spoke to the group, Scalise broke his silence in an interview with his local paper, The Times-Picayune of New Orleans.

He said he didn’t remember specifically addressing EURO, but said that at the time he “went and spoke to any group that called” in 2002 when he was trying to drum up support in opposing a state tax plan.

And then Scalise released the ultimate mea culpa statement Tuesday afternoon, calling his appearance at the event “a mistake I regret.”

“One of the many groups that I spoke to regarding this critical legislation was a group whose views I wholeheartedly condemn. It was a mistake I regret,” Scalise said.

 

That should have been the end of his career 9 years ago and now he's failed upward all the way to House Speaker, despite paling around with avowed racists and antisemites as Israel takes the American foreign policy stage. I bet there's going to be some fun phone calls this week between here and Tel Aviv. 

In hindsight, a Republican in Congress who was chasing the neo-Nazi vote in 2014 was simply ahead of the curve for the rest of the party, and now he's going to get rewarded for it.

Well, eventually. Who knows how many votes it will take to get him elected?

Last Call For Israeli Getting Serious Out There, Con't

Looks like Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu will not only stay in power, but now he will lead a war cabinet emergency government that will almost certainly suspend civil liberties while bombing Gaza to rubble and glass.

 

An emergency government was formed on Wednesday afternoon after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and National Unity leader Benny Gantz met in the IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv earlier in the morning.

The meeting lasted half an hour after which lawyers representing the Likud and National Unity stayed behind to finalize the details.

As part of the deal, Gantz and fellow party members Gadi Eisenkot, Gideon Sa'ar, and two others will be sworn in as ministers for the duration of the war.

Gantz will join a war cabinet with Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and Eisenkot and Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer will be observers. A spot will be kept open for opposition leader Yair Lapid should he join the emergency government.

The agreement also states that throughout the war, no legislation that is unrelated to the war will be done in Knesset.

 

Anyone older enough to remember the PATRIOT Act will recognize the sheer size of this loophole, which Israel will drive multiple tank brigades though.

There has been a widespread call for an emergency government in Israel since Netanyahu declared war on Hamas on Saturday following their massive attack on Israel that morning.

Gantz was immediately joined by opposition leader Yair Lapid and Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Liberman in saying that they would be willing to join an emergency government. Coalition members also expressed support for the move.

Netanyahu and Gantz have held multiple meetings over the past few days to discuss the details of the emergency government, but it took five days to come together.

 

So all the gang is here: Bibi, Gantz, and Liberman, and everyone's going to get their piece of the pie, along with several thousand dead Gaza residents.

Already Gaza has been cut off without power, water, and food, with no escape until further notice. An Israeli ground offensive is imminent. A lot of people are going to be killed over the next week or so on both sides, because Hamas isn't going to sit still, they're continuing to fire rockets into Israeli cities.

It's going to get a lot worse.

The Battle Of The Buckeye State, Con't

With under a month to go until elections here in Kentucky for Governor, there's also a lot of attention on Ohio's abortion rights ballot measure, and the anti-choice MAGA dirtbags are pulling out all the stops to ensure women are second-class citizens in the Buckeye State.

Anti-abortion groups are banking on Ohio to end the movement’s run of state-level losses and create a blueprint for battles in 2024 and beyond.

In four weeks, voters in the Buckeye State will decide whether to enshrine abortion protections into the state constitution or be the first to reject an abortion-rights measure since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.

“Ohio is the first of a lot to come in the year ahead,” said March for Life President Jeanne Mancini, who flew to Ohio last week for a rally against the referendum. “That’s why we’re looking even more closely at Ohio: It could easily set the standard.”

Six states voted last year on abortion referendums. In all six, including deep-red Kansas, Kentucky and Montana — the anti-abortion side lost, and it wasn’t particularly close. The losing streak continued this year, as state supreme court races and special elections that became proxy wars over abortion swung decisively in favor of abortion-rights advocates.

The anti-abortion movement needs Ohio to be different, and as early voting begins Wednesday, they’re holding rallies, canvassing, phone-banking, and airing TV, radio and digital ads to ensure that November’s referendum doesn’t become the latest proof-point for a hardening narrative that opposing abortion rights is a losing issue for the conservative movement.

Conservatives also see Ohio’s referendum as a bellwether for 2024, when abortion rights could be on the ballot in Arizona, Florida, and Missouri and will feature heavily in Democratic efforts to hold the White House, and win a swath of state and federal seats.
“Ohio is a classic test market state,” said Secretary of State Frank LaRose, a Republican seeking the nomination to challenge Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown next year. “People know that, ‘Hey, if my product sells in Ohio, then I can sell it other places.’ The same logic applies politically.”

 

The "product" they are selling in Ohio is second-class citizenship for half the population. And there are a lot of buyers.

In many ways, Ohio conservatives are running the same playbook that failed in other states’ abortion ballot fights, with messaging focused on parental rights, gender-affirming care and abortions later in pregnancy. But the leaders of the anti-abortion campaign insist they’ve learned lessons from those losses and see several factors working in their favor heading into November, including more time to plan than their peers had in other states, an anti-abortion governor on their side and more targeted outreach to students, Black communities and other groups that lean towards Democrats.

“It’s important to win here so that we can demonstrate to the rest of the nation how you win ballot initiatives,” said Peter Range, the CEO of Ohio Right to Life and a board member of Protect Women Ohio — the coalition leading the campaign to defeat Issue 1. “The nation is watching what happens here.”

The abortion-rights groups pushing for the amendment’s passage see equally high stakes in Ohio, but insist the same messaging of freedom from government interference that helped their side win in six states last year will work again.

“We’re very similar to other states,” argued Sri Thakkilapati, the executive director of Preterm, an abortion provider based in Cleveland, and a leader of the pro-Issue 1 campaign. “Americans have shown, again and again, that this is not a partisan issue, that there’s wide support for abortion rights. Ohio is not unique. People understand what’s at stake.”
Still, Ohio’s anti-abortion leaders pointed to several reasons why they’re confident the state will tip in their favor.

Ohio has the only state referendum on abortion this year, meaning national anti-abortion groups like Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America and Students for Life can focus their resources. Ohio conservatives also had more time to plan and fundraise than their counterparts in Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan and Montana last year who had to scramble to mount a campaign in the few months after Roe v. Wade was overturned.

Both of those factors could equally benefit their opponents. But unlike several purple states that voted on abortion last year, Ohio has a popular Republican governor campaigning against the measure. Mike DeWine, who in 2019 signed the six-week abortion ban, hosted a “Vote No” rally at the Ohio Republican Party’s headquarters around the corner from the state capitol on Saturday, and has given speeches and interviews calling the proposed amendment “radical.”

“I’m voting no and I’m certainly urging everyone to vote no,” DeWine told GOP staff and volunteers at the Saturday event. “Whether you’re pro-life or pro-choice, Issue 1 just goes much, much too far.”

 

Ohio Republicans like Mike Dewine believe that women with control of their own bodies is "radical" and "just too far". I hope Ohio voters remember this in 2024 too.

Vote Yes on Issue 1.

Phantasma Santos, Con't

Republican Congressman "George Santos" is somehow in even more trouble, with a new raft of federal felony charges leveled against him this week by the Justice Department.

Federal prosecutors hit Rep. George Santos, R-N.Y., with 23 additional charges Tuesday, including allegations of identity theft and that he charged a supporter's credit card in excess of their contribution and then transferred the money to his personal bank account.

Prosecutors said Santos faces “one count of conspiracy to commit offenses against the United States, two counts of wire fraud, two counts of making materially false statements to the Federal Election Commission (FEC), two counts of falsifying records submitted to obstruct the FEC, two counts of aggravated identity theft, and one count of access device fraud” in a superseding indictment filed Tuesday.

“As alleged, Santos is charged with stealing people’s identities and making charges on his own donors’ credit cards without their authorization, lying to the FEC and, by extension, the public about the financial state of his campaign. Santos falsely inflated the campaign’s reported receipts with non-existent loans and contributions that were either fabricated or stolen” Breon Peace, United States Attorney for the Eastern District of New York, said in a statement.

Santos declined comment to NBC News at the Capitol late Tuesday, saying “I have not had access to my phone.”

In a press release, prosecutors said the scheme included falsely claiming that relatives of Santos and his then-campaign treasurer Nancy Marks had donated big bucks to his campaign to make it appear that he was raising more money than he actually had in order to qualify for assistance from the national party.

"To create the public appearance that his campaign had met that financial benchmark" for additional funds from the Republican Party "and was otherwise financially viable, Santos and Marks agreed to falsely report to the FEC that at least 10 family members of Santos and Marks had made significant financial contributions to the campaign when Santos and Marks both knew that these individuals had neither made the reported contributions nor given authorization for their personal information to be included in such false public reports."

He's also alleged to have been involved in a credit card scheme where the campaign would charge contributors’ credit cards repeatedly and above FEC individual contribution limits.

“For example, in December 2021, one contributor (the 'Contributor') texted Santos and others to make a contribution to his campaign, providing billing information for two credit cards,” prosecutors said.

“In the days after he received the billing information, Santos used the credit card information to make numerous contributions to his campaign and affiliated political committees in amounts exceeding applicable contribution limits, without the Contributor’s knowledge or authorization,” they said.

On another occasion, he allegedly “charged $12,000 to the Contributor’s credit card, ultimately transferring the vast majority of that money into his personal bank account.”

With his campaign's treasurer turning state's evidence only last Friday, she must have spilled the entire East India Trading Company's stock of tea for this superseding indictment to come down just a few days later. "Santos" is in real and considerable legal peril at this point, as he should be. 

Say what you will about Republicans (and more than a few Democrats) being con artists, but this crook takes the cake. And your cake. And everyone's cake. 

Last Call For Israeli Getting Serious Out There, Con't

As I've said, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu, having now survived three attempts to reform a government without him, is using last weekend's Hamas assault as proof that Israel doesn't have time to try to oust him again. Whether or not that works, we'll see. Vox's Zack Beauchamp:

 

In the past 24 hours, two reports out of Israel have pointed to a striking conclusion: that the failure to prevent Hamas’s murderous assault on southern Israel rests in significant part with the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

First, the Washington Post’s Noga Tarnopolsky and Shira Rubin wrote a lengthy dispatch on the many policy failures that allowed Hamas to break through. They find that, in addition to myriad unforgivable intelligence and military mistakes — especially shocking given Israel’s reputation in both fields — there were serious political problems. Distracted by both the fight to seize control over Israel’s judiciary and their effort to deepen Israeli occupation of the West Bank, Netanyahu and his cabinet allowed military readiness to degrade and left outposts on the Gaza border in the south unmanned.

“There was a need for more soldiers, so where did they take them from? From the Gaza border, where they thought it was calm ... not surprising that Hamas and Islamic Jihad noticed the low staffing at the border,” Aharon Zeevi Farkash, the former head of the Israel Defense Forces’ military intelligence, said in comments reported by the Post.

Second, a columnist at Israel’s Ha’aretz newspaper unearthed evidence that Netanyahu has intentionally propped up Hamas rule in Gaza — seeing Palestinian extremism as a bulwark against a two-state solution to the conflict.

“Anyone who wants to thwart the establishment of a Palestinian state has to support bolstering Hamas and transferring money to Hamas,” the prime minister reportedly said at a 2019 meeting of his Likud party. “This is part of our strategy — to isolate the Palestinians in Gaza from the Palestinians in the West Bank.”

These exact comments have not yet been confirmed by other sources. But the Times of Israel’s Tal Schneider wrote on Sunday that Netanyahu’s reported words “are in line with the policy that he implemented,” which did little to challenge and in some ways bolstered Hamas’s control over the Gaza Strip. Moreover, Schneider notes, “the same messaging was repeated by right-wing commentators, who may have received briefings on the matter or talked to Likud higher-ups and understood the message.” Some Netanyahu confidants have said the same thing, as have outside experts.

Put together, these two pieces tell a larger story: that the strategic vision of Netanyahu’s far-right government is a failure.

The notion that Israel can deliver security for its citizens by dividing and conquering Palestinians, crushing them into submission as a kind of colonial overlord, is both immoral and counterproductive on its own terms. Recognizing this reality will be crucial to formulating not only a humane response to Hamas’s atrocity, but an effective one.

 

America failed to recognize this over two decades ago. What should have been the end of the political careers of anyone named Bush or Cheney turned into a second term and a second war that took two decades to extinguish, only for Israel to basically decide that planned incompetence was the way to go to save Bibi's neck when it should be his downfall.

 

Of course, Hamas did decide to butcher several hundred Israeli civilians and take several hundred more as hostages, so it's not like they are blameless here. But it's looking more and more like Bibi opened this particular gateway to hell and then deliberately looked the other way as the monsters came through.

 

You'd think it would cost him his job. Instead it's looking like we could be in for a major war in the Middle East again.

President Biden seems mostly on board.

President Biden said Tuesday that Americans were among the hostages being held by Hamas, in addition to 14 U.S. citizens who have been killed, and he vowed that the United States would stand by Israel as it responds forcefully to the surprise attack on its soil.

Biden, who did not provide a number of U.S. hostages, added that Israel has not only a right but a “duty” to respond to the onslaught by Hamas, which has left hundreds dead. His speech was the first official confirmation that Americans were being held captive, although officials had earlier suggested that was likely to be the case.

“As president, I have no higher priority than the safety of Americans being held hostage around the world,” Biden said. “Like every nation in the world, Israel has the right to respond and indeed has a duty to respond to these vicious attacks.”

Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, said that the administration could not confirm the number of hostages but that at least 20 Americans were missing. Sullivan stressed that did not necessarily mean there were 20 or more U.S. hostages.

Overall, between 100 and 150 people are being held in Gaza, according to an Israeli official, and Hamas has threatened to execute civilian hostages if Israeli airstrikes continue.

Biden, delivering remarks from the State Dining Room in White House, flanked by Vice President Harris and Secretary of State Antony Blinken, spoke in unusually vivid terms about the assault itself.

“There are moments in this life when pure, unadulterated evil is unleashed in this world,” he said, referring to “stomach-turning reports of babies being killed” and “women raped, assaulted, paraded as trophies.”

These are not exactly the words of a man seeking peace, folks.  Luckily the House GOP clown show may actually be to some benefit here for once as if they can't get their crap together and elect a Speaker, there's not going to be much additional military aid to Israel.  It might slow down the war train a bit.

We'll see.

Paxton, Repaxtonated, Con't

Texas GOP Attorney General Ken Paxton, having survived impeachment proceedings against him over fraud and corruption charges, is now bringing the power of his office against state House Republicans who managed his impeachment case. 

 

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton says he will file criminal complaints against the Board of Managers who spearheaded his impeachment after his home address was published in documents posted online last week.

In a news release sent Monday, Paxton cited a new state law that makes it illegal to post someone’s address or phone number online “with the intent to cause harm or a threat of harm.” It is meant to protect people from “doxing,” the practice of posting someone’s personal information online without their permission and with malicious intent.

The attorney general said he and his family have received “multiple threats of violence.” The complaints will be filed with district attorneys in the managers’ eight home counties, according to the news release.

“The impeachment managers clearly have a desire to threaten me with harm when they released this information last week,” Paxton said. “I’m imploring their local prosecutors in each individual district to investigate the criminal offenses that have been committed.”

Paxton, a Republican, was impeached in May on allegations of corruption. The Texas Senate cleared him after a two-week trial last month.

Last week, the managers who unsuccessfully fought for Paxton’s removal from office posted dozens of pages of evidence they said they were unable to release during his impeachment trial. The address of the Paxton family’s Austin home was temporarily visible on several documents. The managers pulled them offline the morning after they were published to redact them, saying they were correcting the “mistake.”

Rep. Andrew Murr, who led the 12-member Board of Managers, issued a statement late Monday that noted Paxton’s address has been in exhibits posted to the Senate’s website without incident since August. While redacted from his annual personal financial disclosures, Paxton’s home addresses are also visible on local public appraisal district websites.

“Growing up on a ranch, I was taught to keep the manure on the outside of my boots. Mr. Paxton’s baseless threats about filing criminal complaints are horse manure, and they are filling his boots full,” Murr, R-Junction, said.

Rusty Hardin, one of the private practice lawyers who prosecuted the impeachment on behalf of the managers, said Paxton’s complaints have “no merit in the law.”

“He’s going to abuse the criminal justice system to punish the people who brought him before the impeachment court,” Hardin said, calling it an abuse of power.

The Dallas Morning News asked the police, sheriff and prosecutors’ offices in Collin, Dallas and Tarrant Counties whether they’d received any complaints from Paxton. The Dallas Police Department said to reach out to the district attorney, whose spokesperson did not answer a request for comment.

A representative with the Collin County sheriff said they had not, to their best of their knowledge, received such a complaint but would not answer further questions.

“Our office will not comment on this matter. Please seek alternative sources for your story,” Sgt. Jessica Pond wrote in an email.

 

Now, we're talking Texas Republicans here. There are no "good guys" in this fight, only shades of racist, white supremacist, transphobic, antisemitic assholery to parse. Paxton trying to put other Republicans in state prison is actually fine with me. Let them fight until the cows come home.

And just maybe, Texans can throw all of them out in 2024 and 2026.

Fani, Flagged In Georgia, Con't

With their signature "rogue prosecution" law having been passed and having taken effect as of October 1, Georgia state Republicans are now trying to shut down Fulton County DA Fani Willis's RICO fraud case against Donald Trump and his inner circle of co-conspirators.

 

Georgia Senate Republicans filed a formal complaint to punish Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis after she sought charges against former President Donald Trump under a new law aimed at sanctioning “rogue” prosecutors.

The complaint contends Willis “improperly cherry-picked cases to further her personal political agenda” and asks the newly formed Prosecuting Attorneys Qualification Commission to initiate an investigation and take “appropriate measures” to sanction her.

“The integrity of our justice system is at stake, and the trust of the community in the District Attorney’s Office has been severely eroded,” states the complaint, which a group of eight state senators submitted hours after the law took effect Oct. 1.

The Republicans don’t specifically mention Trump in the complaint, but they sought to link a spate of deaths in the Fulton County Jail to Willis’ decision to “empanel a special grand jury to investigate her political adversaries” amid a yearslong backlog of cases.

Willis, who has criticized the law as racist and retaliatory, declined to comment through a spokesman. But she has long said that she can balance the high-profile trials in the Trump case with the other demands of her office.

The complaint sharpened an already deep rift over Trump among state Republicans.

Gov. Brian Kemp, a chief sponsor of the law, has repeatedly said there’s no evidence Willis should face any sanctions by the commission for bringing the indictment against Trump and his allies alleging they participated in a “criminal enterprise” to overturn the 2020 presidential election in Georgia.

Kemp, however, has criticized the timing of the charges.

“I haven’t seen anything that she has done that has broken the law or the procedures that we have. And I’ve been very honest with people about that,” Kemp said in a recent interview. “It may be a political action she’s taken in some ways, with timing and other things, but it doesn’t mean it’s illegal.”

But the GOP-controlled state Senate has forcefully broken from that approach. Senate leaders encouraged their constituents to file complaints with the commission against Willis shortly after she announced the indictment in August.

And last week, Senate Republicans launched a probe into dangerous conditions at the Fulton County Jail that is expected to scrutinize Willis’ handling of the backlog of cases that worsened during the coronavirus pandemic.

The document, reviewed Monday by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, was filed by a group that included Senate Majority Leader Steve Gooch and state Sen. Jason Anavitarte, another high-ranking Republican in the chamber.

The complaint contends that Willis has “prioritized cases that align with her political party’s interests” rather than on the merits of each case. And it invokes the 10 inmates who have died in Fulton County custody in the past year.

 

Republicans can't let Fani Willis prosecute the case, or Trump will destroy them. They have to punish her or their political careers will be ended. That's where we are right now, even though this investigation will most likely go nowhere as far as the Trump case.

 

But they can make it very difficult for Willis and frankly, since Georgia Republicans are writing the laws and GOP Gov. Brian Kemp signed off on the legislation, an investigation into her office right now could very well sink the case completely on a technicality or "prosecutorial misconduct". Anything to get Trump off the hook.

 

And if you think Brian Kemp is going to play along when he's told his career ends if he doesn't, he will fall in line in the end. They always do.

We'll see where this goes.

Last Call For Spoilers Ahead, Con't

As we were warned last week, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is trashing his family's legacy one last time in order to run as a third-party presidential spoiler.

Environmental lawyer and presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced on Monday his independent candidacy for president, officially ending his effort to defeat President Joe Biden in the Democratic primary in favor of a long-shot general election bid.

“I’m here to declare myself an independent candidate for president of the United States,” Kennedy said in remarks in Philadelphia.

Kennedy’s announcement comes after several weeks of speculation about his future in the 2024 field. CNN previously reported Kennedy met with the chair of the Libertarian Party earlier this year to discuss their common beliefs. And last week, a super PAC supporting Kennedy’s presidential campaign released the results of a poll they conducted testing Kennedy’s strength in a hypothetical three-way race between Biden and former President Donald Trump.

The campaign will host a series of events in Texas, Florida and Georgia later this month, a campaign official told CNN, pledging to travel “everywhere” in the lead-up to next year’s general election. The official said the campaign is confident they’ll gain ballot access in every state ahead of November 2024.

Independent and third-party candidates have struggled in the past to garner substantial support in presidential elections. In 1992, Texas businessman Ross Perot mounted one of the most successful independent presidential candidacies in recent history, which ended with him receiving 8% of the vote in the general election that was ultimately won by Bill Clinton.

Kennedy’s campaign as an independent could further complicate a general election race that’s already expected to be closely contested. A Reuters/Ipsos poll of a hypothetical three-way race between Biden, Trump and Kennedy conducted last week among likely voters found 14% of voters supported Kennedy, with 40% supporting Trump and 38% supporting Biden. With over a year until the general election, it’s unclear whether the Kennedy campaign can translate that level of support into votes in November 2024.

“Voters should not be deceived by anyone who pretends to have conservative values. The fact is that RFK has a disturbing background steeped in radical, liberal positions,” Trump campaign spokesperson Steven Cheung said in a statement that criticized Kennedy over his positions on China, guns, the environment and abortion. “… A RFK candidacy is nothing more than a vanity project for a liberal Kennedy looking to cash in on his family’s name.”

 

And of course as I've said many times previously, Kennedy is trying to put Trump back in office for his own reasons, and Trump is pretending Kennedy is a threat to him and not Biden, and it's all a very nice little kabuki act all the way around.  

We'll see how much damage he can do to America in the year ahead.

Israeli Getting Serious Out There, Con't

Bibi wants a ground war in Gaza, and he's almost certainly going to get it.

 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told President Biden on Sunday that Israel does not have any choice but to unleash a ground operation in Gaza. "We have to go in," the Israeli leader said, according to three Israeli and U.S. sources briefed on the call.

Why it matters: Netanyahu's message signals what his country's response to Hamas' attack will look like in the days and weeks ahead in what the Israeli prime minister has said will be a "long and difficult war."

Driving the news: The Israeli military announced on Monday it has mobilized 300,000 reserve soldiers — the largest number of reservists called to duty in decades — as part of preparations for a possible ground offensive in Gaza.

Behind the scenes: During his call with Netanyahu, Biden raised the issue of Israeli hostages in Gaza, according to the three sources."We have to go in. We can't negotiate now," Netanyahu said.

The White House and the Israeli Prime Minister's Office declined to comment.

Netanyahu told Biden that Israel had no other choice but to respond with force because a country can't show weakness in the Middle East. "We need to restore deterrence," Netanyahu told Biden, according to the three sources. Biden did not try to press Netanyahu or convince him not to go through with a ground operation.

Between the lines: According to a U.S. source, Biden is expected to handle the current Gaza war in a similar way to how he handled the 2021 Gaza war. The U.S. gave Israel public backing and held frequent and low-profile diplomatic engagement with Netanyahu and other leaders in the region.

 

Kevin McCarthy, sensing a once-in-a-generation opportunity for the greatest upward white guy fail since Dubya, is now demanding his own job back because of course we can't have a leadership battle after a terrorist attack on our ally.

McCarthy called it the “wrong” message for the world to not have a speaker amid the crisis: “Is our conference just going to select somebody, only to throw them out in another 81 days?”

Any attempt to reinstall McCarthy would face long odds. Scalise and Jordan have already lined up endorsements for the speakership, and McCarthy’s detractors remain dug in against him.

The former speaker acknowledged being in uncharted territory with the powers of Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) to lead the chamber unclear. But McCarthy said the House should act to support Israel.

In a speech evocative of the pomp and circumstance of a speakership, McCarthy outlined five prongs to address the Middle East crisis: Rescuing U.S. hostages currently being held by Hamas, supplying Israel with new weapons, confronting Iran, addressing U.S. domestic national security and confronting anti-Semitism.

McCarthy last week became the first speaker in U.S. history to be ousted. McCarthy noted he lost his post despite overwhelming support from the GOP conference, pointing out that just eight Republicans joined with Democrats to toss him from the speakership.

McCarthy said the U.S. goal should be to “destroy Hamas” and additional assistance should go beyond replenishing the Iron Dome missile defense system.

“This will not be Afghanistan. We will not leave Americans on the ground,” McCarthy said.

 

Now, Hamas butchering hundreds at a Peace for Gaza rally and taking hundreds more hostage is a terrorist act of war, full stop. But it's pretty scuzzy for both Bibi and Kevin as they figure using this attack as impetus to keep them in power for years to come is going to pay off for them in the end.

 

A lot of other people, places and things in Gaza are going to be destroyed over the next several weeks and months other than Hamas. 

GOP Goes Down Mexico Way

At this point multiple GOP candidates for President are promising to commit acts of outright war in Mexico in order to try to stop the flow of drugs and migrants into the US, and even if somehow Trump isn't the candidate by some miracle, the also-rans are more than willing to run on invading our southern neighbor.

Ron DeSantis wants suspected drug smugglers at the U.S.-Mexico border to be shot dead. Nikki Haley promises to send American special forces into Mexico. Vivek Ramaswamy has accused Mexico's leader of treating drug cartels as his "sugar daddy" and says that if he is elected president, "there will be a new daddy in town."

Donald Trump, the Republican front-runner for the 2024 nomination and long the person who has shaped his party's rhetoric on the border, has often blamed Mexico for problems in the United States and promises new uses of military force and covert action if he returns to the White House.

Many of the GOP presidential candidates say they would carry out potential acts of war against Mexico in response to the trafficking of fentanyl and other synthetic opioids. More than 75,000 people in the U.S. died last year from overdoses of synthetic opioids, an annual figure more than 20 times higher than a decade ago.

The candidates' antagonism toward Mexico is welcomed by some families who have lost loved ones to fentanyl and have argued that Washington has not done enough to address the worst drug crisis in U.S. history. However, analysts and nonpartisan experts warn that military force is not the answer and instead fuels the racism and xenophobia that undermine efforts to stop drug trafficking.

"You've got politicking on this side. And then on the Mexican side of the border, you've got a president who is turning a blind eye to what's going on in Mexico and who has completely gutted bilateral collaboration with the United States," said Arturo Sarukhan, Mexico's ambassador to the U.S. from 2007 to 2013. "That's a very combustible mixture."

Andrea Thomas' daughter died at age 32 after taking half of a counterfeit pill laced with fentanyl that looked like her prescription pills for abdominal pain. Thomas started the foundation Voices for Awareness in Grand Junction, Colorado, to raise the alarm about fentanyl.

Thomas says people she knows are interested in what the candidates are proposing and feel that President Joe Biden's administration has not properly responded to the crisis. In a letter to the presidential candidates, Thomas and an assembly of other groups urge the politicians to do "all that can be done" to stop the manufacturing and smuggling of the drug.

"This drug is like no drug we have ever seen before," she said. "We need some strong measures. We have no more time to waste."

Democrats also face immense political pressure on border issues heading into next year's election. The White House has funded national programs to reduce fentanyl overdoses and sanctioned Chinese companies blamed for importing the chemicals used to make the drug.

Mexico has failed to address its problem with fentanyl production and trafficking. Mexican President Andres Manuel López Obrador repeatedly denies his country is producing the synthetic opioid despite enormous evidence to the contrary.

Border agents seized nearly 13 tons (12,000 kilograms) of fentanyl at the U.S.-Mexico border between September 2022 and August, according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection.

At the second GOP primary debate late last month, candidates reiterated that they would use military forces to go after drug gangs in Mexico.

"As commander in chief, I'm going to use the U.S. military to go after the Mexican drug cartels," said DeSantis, the Florida governor. He has promised that people suspected of smuggling drugs across the southern border would end up "stone cold dead." That raises the prospect of border agents being authorized to shoot people on sight before any investigation into whether those people were carrying drugs.

Of course if DeSantis, Trump, Haley and the rest really want to stop drugs from Mexico, we need to go after Americans, not Mexicans...

U.S. government data undercuts the claim that people seeking asylum and other border crossers are responsible for drug trafficking. About 90% of fentanyl seizures were made at official land crossings, not between crossings where people entered illegally. At a hearing in July, James Mandryck, a CBP deputy assistant commissioner, said 73% of fentanyl seizures at the border since the previous October were smuggling attempts carried out by U.S. citizens, with the rest being done by Mexican citizens.

Something tells me that the next Republican administration really will shoot first and ignore questions, or at least ignore answers that questions might raise.